Despite a third straight top-ten offensive rating, this year’s offense looks a lot more sustainable
There are two types of good statistical offenses.
The Knicks had the fourth and seventh best offenses respectively by offensive rating the past two seasons. Those offenses weren’t totally predicated on great efficiency, ball movement, and high-end offensive talent.
The 2022-23 team was fourth in offensive rating. It might seem like much longer than two years ago because of the insane roster turnover, but that team was pretty good. The thing is that the offense wasn’t very sustainable. How does a team that was 20th in FG%, 19th in 3pt%, and dead last in assists have such a good offensive rating? They were insane on the boards, prevented turnovers, and thrived on volume.
The 2023-24 team had two different seasons. The pre-OG and post-OG Knicks were very different, but offensively? Both were top-ten. The reason the team got better was Anunoby’s defensive aptitude. The team had the same blueprint as the prior season: thrive off volume, offensive rebounding, and low turnovers.
Granted, these aren’t just because of personnel. Tom Thibodeau’s system prioritizes rebounding, slow-paced/iso offense, and clean basketball. The Knicks are once again 29th in pace, typical of a Thibs offense. However, the Knicks are building their top-five offense in a completely different way than before.
Shooting Efficiency
Efficiency and the Knicks were antonyms in the last couple of years. In 2021-22, Julius Randle had a dreadful 50.9 TS%. That year’s team was solid from the perimeter but dreadful inside the arc. Obi Toppin was the only non-big that had a consistent role that had an above average TS%. The two free agents brought in to boost the offense shot sub-42%. That team was bad all around so this is common knowledge.
The 2022-23 team was also mediocre efficiency-wise, but a rebound for Julius Randle and strong seasons by Brunson, Quickley, and Grimes kept them out of the gutter. The struggles came from RJ Barrett and the dreadful start to the season by guys like Fournier, Rose, and Reddish. If you remember, the team was totally different after those three were banished to the bench.
Even last season, despite Brunson’s heroics and DiVincenzo’s brilliance, they were weighed down by an ugly start for RJ Barrett before the trade, as well as the revolving door off the bench struggling (Hart, Bogdanovic, Grimes, and Burks all struggled with their shots).
That said, over the years you saw a clear improvement in efficiency. The team TS% went from 55.0 to 57.7 and 57.4%. There were still weak links but a more sustainable offense was brewing.
So far this year? You’ve seen a hyper-efficient onslaught of offense. A stellar 60.9 TS% is only topped by the dominant Cavs (63.9, where did this come from?). Individual performances have boosted this, such as Josh Hart shooting 58.4% from the field, Mikal Bridges shooting 63.3% from inside the arc, and Karl-Anthony Towns nailing 51% of his threes.
Here’s the Knicks’ rankings in FG%, 3pt%, and FT% every year of the Tom Thibodeau Era:
2020-21: 21st, 3rd, 14th
2021-22: 27th, 13th, 26th
2022-23: 20th, 19th, 22nd
2023-24: 20th, 14th, 16th
2024-25: 2nd, 3rd, 5th
This is by far the most efficient offense in a long time. It’s a masterpiece in roster construction by Leon Rose to get us there. Josh Hart is the least dangerous shooter in the starting lineup. Jericho Sims is the only player in the fluid 9-man rotation that can’t make a jumper. The spacing is great. What dragged down the FT% was the meh shooting of Randle and Barrett and the… plainly horrific shooting of Robinson. This number will go down when Mitch returns but when Mikal Bridges is statistically your worst FT shooter starting? That’s good.
(Just to note, the team has fallen off a cliff in FTA/game. Part of that is the refs swallowing their whistles but we also forget how much of an FT farmer Randle was.)
The shot selection is a story for another time. They’re starting to get up more threes while maintaining their efficiency (good) but there’s also a lot of long twos being taken. That said, if Bridges can’t make an above-the-break 3 but can make a midrange at a 55% clip, I’ll take it.
Shooting is one reason why this offense has been turbocharged. There’s also another thing.
Sharing the Rock
Assists are a misleading stat. As seen by this Tyus Jones breakdown, an assist doesn’t always cause a bucket. Players can get an assist by passing to a guy on the perimeter who drives to the rim a few seconds later. Look at this assist by Josh Hart to get his triple-double in Philly.
Process > results. A great pass can be all for nothing if the player misses an open shot. So, take this with a grain of salt.
Through four years under Tom Thibodeau, the Knicks were towards the bottom in assists, AST%, and AST/TO ratio. Despite their low turnover propensity, the team was so dreadful at sharing the ball that they were weighed down by it. In the first two years, it was because of a Randle-centric offense without a secondary playmaker. Even though they added another playmaker in Brunson, his iso-centric approach made it even worse. Entering this year, the Knicks looked nearly devoid of playmakers, but in actuality, they are sharing the ball like they haven’t in years.
Their AST% is a ho-hum 63%. It basically means that 63% of their made shots are assisted. Nowhere close to Denver’s 70.9%. But, what if I told you that their AST% last year was under 55%?
The Knicks are racking up assists thanks to much-improved ball movement. Although the offense is still iso-centric and slow, the team is distributing much better. Nobody on this team is selfish and both Brunson and Hart are taking the onus of distributing and thriving. Their 2.26 AST/TO ratio leads the league. Brunson and Hart are both over three. Last year, it sat at 1.84 with Hart and Brunson both around 2.8. The numbers were dragged down by a sub-1.5 number from Barrett, Randle, and Anunoby.
This year? No regular is under 1.7 and bench maestro Cam Payne has been a machine in limited minutes with a 5.6.
Last night against the lowly Wizards, the Knicks recorded 37 assists. That is tied for their most since 1993. Yes, 1993.
Having a more sustainable offense is unbelievably important. In the playoffs, it naturally becomes harder to score. In 2023, the Heat clamped every Knick not named Jalen Brunson and made the offense lethargic. In 2024, the Knicks were stunted in every single game that the Sixers and Pacers prioritized boxing out. Without offensive rebounds, the Knicks’ offense regressed heavily in those games.
They say you can’t teach an old dog new tricks. That is partially true for Tom Thibodeau. You’ll never get him to stop fiending for a rim protector, you’ll never stop him from putting starters back in late during a blowout, and you’ll never get him to speed up the offense.
That said, the Thibs’ offenses of yesteryear appear to be dead. This new offense is more sustainable and doesn’t rely on gobbling up a huge amount of offensive rebounds to be good.