The Knicks will need another wing tonight as they take on the Rockets.
With OG Anunoby officially listed as out, the initial concern that the forward would be out for a while has become real. This is a huge loss for a Knicks team that desperately needs his spacing and elite defense. And as is the case whenever a key rotational player is out for anyone, the Knicks will need guys to step up. Their depth, or lack thereof, has been well documented, and now it’ll be tested even more with one of their bench players having to move up to the starting lineup. So who will it be?
Well, there’s really only a few options. When Josh Hart missed his only game of the season in December, Precious Achiuwa got the start, and had a solid game, scoring 13 points, and grabbing 10 rebounds in just under 28 minutes. Most importantly, he, and his presence, did not interfere with the play of the starters. Brunson has an uncharacteristically bad game, shooting 5-14, but Karl-Anthony Towns scored 32 points, and Mikal Bridges scored 29 points. Achiuwa has also made a case to get some more playing time as of late, averaging 12.6PPG, and 3RPG over his last three games, and having maybe his best stretch since becoming a Knick.
There is also Cam Payne, who, along with Achiuwa, and Jericho Sims, is just one of three bench players to get at least one start this season. Payne has had some really nice moments this season as a spark plug off the bench. On multiple occasions, he’s changed the trajectory of the game with big threes, and momentum-swinging energy plays. That being said, he shot just 41.1% from the field in January and shot just 2-9 in his lone start this season.
Then there’s Deuce McBride. The fourth-year guard hasn’t taken the kind of offensive jump that many had hoped for. His field goal percentage is down from 45.2% to 42.3%, his three-point percentage, while still respectable, is down from 41% to 37.2%, and despite playing a more consistent role, his improvements as a ball handler, and a playmaker haven’t been what fans had expected. But it’s still clear that it is McBride who should get the starting nod over the aforementioned two.
Of the 20 different lineups that have played more than 25 minutes this season, McBride’s name appears in eight of the top 10 in terms of net rating. More specifically, McBride can be found in all of the top three lineups. And the hypothetical starting lineup with McBride in for Anunoby? That lineup is the ninth-best lineup on the team this year, with a net rating of 8.6 in 42 minutes. That lineup also had an offensive rating of 118.1 (which would be tied for fourth best in the league), and a defensive rating of 109.5 (which would be the league’s fifth-best). Conversely, the lineup that replaces Anunoby with Achiuwa has an offensive rating of 111.7, likely due to the lack of floor spacing, and a defensive rating of 112.1, which is good for -0.4. And a lineup with Payne replacing Anunoby? Well, that’s the worst one yet. That lineup, which has only played seven minutes together, has an offensive rating of just 113.3, and an abysmal defensive rating of 125, which comes out to an ugly net rating of -11.7.
There is a case, albeit a subpar one, for all these players to get starting considerations. Achiuwa gives them more size up front, which, in theory, should lead to more rebounds, and in his lone game as a starter, he and the team looked pretty good. Payne, despite his substandard game as a starter, has had some really nice moments, and utilizing him as the starter over McBride would keep the latter in a position he may be more comfortable in right now. Not to mention the backup point guard currently leads the team in individual net rating.
But the numbers are clear, and they are what they are for a reason. McBride, who is a considerably better defender than Payne, gives them another great point-of-attack defender, something they’ve struggled with prior to Mikal Bridges’ recent improvements as a defender. His insertion into the starting lineup also provides them with much more shooting and spacing than a lineup with Achiuwa in it. And while replacing Anunoby with McBride makes the team smaller on paper, New York’s rebounding percentage is only 1.6% higher with Achiuwa in instead of McBride.
While Payne and Achiuwa have done some really nice things for the Knicks, it shouldn’t be too much of a discussion. Regardless of how these players have played individually in a vacuum, McBride is the best fit for the starting lineup given his impressive defense, and shooting. New York will still likely need to figure out how to best utilize the rest of the rotation, but Tom Thibodeau has relied on his starters heavily this season, and this lineup change gives them the best shot at maximizing the talents of said lineup.