ANALYSIS: How one play explains Cam Johnson’s sudden star turn

It was a turnover, but the opening possession of Nets-Bucks illustrates why Cam Johnson has leveled up this season.

Cam Johnson has never played this well for this long, now 28 appearances into his sixth NBA season, his second full one with the Brooklyn Nets.

At this rate, Johnson will probably get snubbed from All-Star snub lists in February, but that is cause for great joy, not concern. He is averaging 19/4/3 on the ninth-best TS% (65.7!!) in the NBA; only two players ahead of him are also averaging more points. Johnson 3-point heavy shot diet is largely unchanged from years past, but much beneath the surface is different.

When Mikal Bridges was traded to the New York Knicks, it automatically meant a step up in the offensive pecking order for Johnson. Then Cam Thomas went on the injured list (where he still is) for half the season, same thing. Dennis Schröder is now a Golden State Warrior.

And yet, Johnson is the focal point of the 14th-ranked half-court offense (per Cleaning the Glass), which would have sounded like a true miracle at any previous point in his career. While Brooklyn’s offense has started to struggle, much of that is due to expected shooting regression, as Brooklyn’s poor shooting roster has dropped from 4th to 10th in league-wide 3-point percentage within their last four games.

Johnson, though, is shooting the trey-ball as well as ever, and he’s getting these looks differently than ever before.

Last season, 36% of Johnson’s possessions used, which Synergy Sports defines as shots taken and turnovers, came on spot-up situations. That ranked in the 67th percentile across the league, makes sense since Johnson is known for and suited to scare defenses just by spotting up beyond the arc.

This season, though, his spot-up frequency is 22%, all the way down to 35th percentile league-wide. In its place is a billion success dribble-handoffs; Johnson ranks in the 95th percentile in frequency and the 74th percentile in points per possession. No, he may not have the handles and shifty athleticism required to run a ton of pick-and-roll or isolate, but Head Coach Jordi Fernández has him running off screen after screen after screen and making more decisions than ever.

It’s a cycle. Johnson plays extremely well on offense, begetting more of a creation load, then he excels at those increased responsibilities, and defenses turn up the pressure. That brings CJ new challenges to conquer as an offensive creator, and after some trial and error, makes him a better player.

Here is the first set possession of Brooklyn’s game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday night. Sear it into your brain…

Fernández has called the first designed play of the game, to no surprise, for Johnson. It’s ‘twirl’ (see how Keon literally twirls around CJ to set him a screen) into a dribble-handoff.

Milwaukee, unsurprisingly, traps the handoff with big man Brook Lopez. They are not going to let priority #1 on the defensive scouting report get loose tonight. If Cam Johnson has space to breathe coming off a screen it’s gonna be a bucket; Brook Lopez and Doc Rivers’ simultaneous reactions to this three from the third quarter tell you all you need to know about how the Bucks want to defend Johnson…

But for now, Lopez is trapping Johnson, really the only way to defend him on a Nets team without many threats around him. On Saturday, the Utah Jazz became the first team to consistently trap Brooklyn’s most efficient scorer, and with great success. Johnson was overwhelmed by a level defensive pressure he’s never had to deal with, and turned the ball over six times in his worst all-around performance of the season.

The Bucks are running the same playbook to start Thursday’s game, and Johnson’s eyes immediately find the low man, Ryan Rollins, the pressure point in the defense. He’ll be responsible for rotating over to Nic Claxton’s roll while keeping an eye on his corner shooter…

Back to the more immediate task, Johnson throws a pass fake and takes a dribble, creating a passing lane around Brook Lopez’ huge frame. Suddenly, Clax looks open under the basket…

Alas, Johnson doesn’t put enough mustard on the pass, and Rollins steps into steal it. Turnover for CJ.

And yet, it’s a really good rep from Brooklyn’s most offensive player, or at least a sign of progress. This is all happening a little too fast for Johnson, but slower than it was against Utah…

Ball-handlers have a long checklist to deal with when facing traps, making sure their defender is still on their hip and the trapper doesn’t steal the ball, tracking their big man rolling to the basket, all while playing cat-and-mouse with that low-man defender, Rollins in this case.

On this turnover, Johnson is almost all the way there. He pins Rollins with his eyes, calmly moves Lopez out of the way with his pass-fake, and creates a passing angle to potentially lead to a dunk. But he doesn’t fire that pass quickly enough, nor does he keep his eyes on Rollins — who makes a nice play — the whole time. Johnson is speeding through the check-list, but doesn’t quite have total control yet.

This is how players improve, and this is how Cam Johnson has improved this year, possibly a top-50 player in the NBA thus far. After an impossibly turnover-averse first month, Johnson has had multiple turnovers in eight of his last ten games, including another six cough-ups vs Milwaukee. Yet, he unquestionably played a great offensive game. 29 points on 18 true-shooting attempts, and on the rare occasions the Bucks didn’t trap, he made them pay.

Here, Johnson sees Bobby Portis retreat, so he attacks the lane, getting through traffic and throwing a perfect lob to Nic Claxton…

In the past, if a defense prevented Johnson from firing a three off the catch, their job was finished. Frankly, if he put the ball on the floor and it wasn’t a straight-line drive to the basket, they’d likely won the possession. Those days seem so long ago, and though Johnson hasn’t mastered playing against two defenders yet, this recent track record of his suggests that’s coming too.

This all has an unquantifiable effect; Johnson is more confident than ever. He makes shots, so he’s itching to shoot the ball, the same goes for his decision-making. Even when he misses shots, he knows the ball will be coming back soon, and Fernández’s offense is now built around getting him favorable looks.

So on the occasions that Johnson needs to create something out of nothing, he’s not re-inventing the wheel, but playing to his strengths. Again, he’s never beating people clean off the dribble, but he’s comfortable making a move or two at most find a little air-space. And that jumper is as pure as ever…

There were signs of a Cam Johnson breakout heading into 2023-24, but last season’s campaign never got off the ground, truly. When a week of solid play did come, it was immediately followed by ankle sprain or a hamstring pull. Back to square one.

His near All-Star efforts in 2024-25 may seem futile for a 12-18 Nets team; heck, they may get him traded out of town. Brooklyn loves Johnson, but he might be leaving them no choice. In any case, it is a fantastic case of player development for a 28-year-old veteran, and it’s rewarding to see it play out in real time.

Cam Johnson’s next chance to further an All-Star case will come on Friday night at the Barclays Center, where the San Antonio Spurs will be coming to town. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.