Is it time to worry about Nic Claxton?

While the answer to that question is probably ‘no’, it’s concerning that we’re asking the question — an analysis of Nic Claxton’s season thus far.

Admittedly, that’s a harsh headline for an article about a player who just put up 16-and-8 in a win on Wednesday night, even hitting his first 3-pointer of the season…

It’s also a harsh headline for a guy who missed all preseason action with a hamstring injury, and through a quarter of the regular season, has already missed six (non-consecutive) games with a lower back injury that required an epidural injection.

This is not an article questioning if the Brooklyn Nets made the right decision by signing Nic Claxton, who has dealt with injuries throughout his career, to a four-year, $100 million deal this past offseason.

After all, over the previous two seasons, Nic Claxton missed fewer than ten games due to injury, other absences were designated as “rest.” I often have little interest in prognosticating a player’s health; barring extreme cases, players either suit up or don’t, and they either get hurt or they don’t. And If it’s not at random, it’s certainly beyond our ability to predict.

However, Claxton hasn’t dealt with an injury like this before.

1. It’s a back injury. Need I say more?
2. It’s the first time an injury has directly hampered his play on the court.

In the past, Claxton missed time with whatever ailment sidelined him, only to come back, improve, and produce. Though he played some strong games early in this 2024-25 campaign, he has not looked right in those appearances scattered around his absences. This is no all-encompassing excuse for why he hasn’t played his best ball, otherwise this would be a tweet and not an article.

But a healthy Nic Claxton does not jump meekly for an alley-oop. He is not shy about rising and finishing over smaller defenders. And yet…

Claxton says he is “getting there, for sure. It’s taking a while, but I’m getting there,” physically, so it’ll be something to track throughout this season.

The obvious question, then: Why is Claxton even playing? Brooklyn just committed $100 million to him and, forget the T-word, they’re not contending for a championship. If this is the sort of long-term ailment that rest could alleviate — and it may not be — then Clax should be glued to his well-thought-out street clothes.

However, when Jordi Fernández was asked if this is an injury that requires some long-term managing, he had this to say: “I think in professional sports, especially in this league, a lot of these guys play with bumps and bruises. What we need them is to believe that they’re good to go. And if we feel like a guy is not confident, we’re gonna let them make the decisions, I think that’s fair. If you play and you are afraid to get hurt, guess what? You’re going to get hurt. So we don’t want that for Nic or anybody in our group.”

At the very least, that’s a chin-stroker. Is the franchise center on the same pager as Brooklyn’s decision-makers, or is there a disconnect somewhere? We’ll leave the armchair psychology (and physiotherapy) there, as Claxton’s concerning start to the season goes beyond his back troubles.

He hasn’t been bad or anything, but remember, this was a player who, at age 23, turned in a top-50 caliber season in 2022-23.

As I wrote last spring:

He led the league in field-goal percentage, shooting 80.5% at the rim and 51.4% from 3-10 feet, per basketball reference. Not only was Claxton one of the league’s premier lob-threats, but he finished plenty of semi-self-created hooks and floaters on nearly three attempts a game.

Claxton was more impressive on the other end of the floor, blocking 2.5 shots per game while remaining one of the switchiest centers of the pre-Wemby era. Clax finished No. 9 in Defensive Player of the Year voting, but was tracking far higher than that prior to Brooklyn’s structural implosion at the 2023 trade deadline.

Better yet, it felt as though he was just scratching the surface offensively. Sure, shooting above 50% from the non-RA painted area was bound to fall a bit, but the talent jumped off the screen…

Now that’s a guy who can bring the boom to a 3-point heavy offense. He may not be the passing/shooting hub that Kelly Olynyk is, for example, but simple reads suffice when a center can get to the rim and finish as he can.

To nobody’s surprise, that was the element of Claxton’s game that Fernández — former coach of Nikola Jokić and Domantas Sabonis — honed in on when he was hired.

“The way we can play through him — obviously he’s great in pick and roll, he’s quick to the rim, he puts pressure on the rim — but also his ability to play the dribble-handoff game which, as you guys know, lately in the NBA is a style that is very efficient, and it helps with ball movement,” said Fernández at his introductory presser.

Unfortunately, we have not seen those early returns on this enticing coach-player pairing. The above highlight compilation does not resemble Claxton’s offensive production this season, where he’s averaging the most touches-per-minute of his career, but taking the fewest shots-per-minute since his sophomore season. His 16th game of the season, Monday’s loss to the Chicago Bulls, was the first time he’d cracked double-digit FGAs all season.

Yes, he’s been on a minutes restriction, and yes, he’s catching the ball near the 3-point line often, weaving around the arc into dribble-handoffs, but if Nic Claxton isn’t at least trying stuff on offense this season, what’s the point? Averaging 20 points a game isn’t the goal, but Nikola Vučević should be scared in this situation…

Claxton dribbled that ball over to Dennis Schröder, and the possession later ended in a missed Keon Johnson three. That’s no sin, but if Claxton’s decision-making doesn’t start to lean toward the rim, his offensive gifts will continue to collect dust.

“He has the ability to do that,” said Fernández before Wednesday’s ___ against the Indiana Pacers. “He’s pretty good on dribble-handoffs, and we gotta keep working on that. So yeah, it’s part of how we play, but it’s also part of how we see him moving forward and getting better.”

When asked if it’s been tough for him to strike the right balance, the six-year Net smirked, paused for a while, and chose the following words carefully: “Yeah. But I got to just be assertive and pick my spots when I can, because I get the ball a lot. So just knowing when I can drive, knowing when I can duck in, when I got a smaller guy on me, and being as aggressive as I can be.”

If the only source of concern with Nic Claxton this season was a little timidity, that’d be one thing. But Claxton’s output has now dipped considerably from his 2022-23 season, and it’s no longer small sample size theater…

In 2023-24, it was understandable, if not ideal. The vibes were absolutely noxious after Christmas, and Claxton’s impact came and went, but we saw that top-50 ceiling occasionally. He dominated Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama at Barclays Center, he stapled Jaren Jackson Jr. to a 2-of-12 shooting night in Memphis, he put up 22-and-14 against Anthony Davis.

Did those nights come and go, along with silly technical fouls and moments of exhaustion? Of course; but Clax still blocked multiple shots in 61.1% of his appearances.

In his first __ games this season 2024-25, he’s done that in just ___ times. Lest you think that’s a product of minutes played, his block rate has firmly fallen, per Cleaning the Glass, while his foul rate has increased.

It’s too early to start talking about a panic-meter for the 25-year-old, and the stakes aren’t high enough to necessitate one anyway. Brooklyn’s season is still, ultimately, about attaining great draft capital and potentially maximizing cap space while implementing a new status quo. Bricklaying.

Claxton has fallen a step behind once-contemporaries like Bam Adebayo and Isaiah Hartenstein, while onlookers like Jarrett Allen and Ivica Zubac have caught up, but all those guys are on better teams. Clax nearing All-Star levels to drag the Nets from 9-13__ to ____ wouldn’t really matter, for the organization’s sake.

But it matters for him, his development as a guy that should be — and has been — Brooklyn’s best player. This is not to say Claxton doesn’t recognize the opportunity or isn’t really dealing with a balky back, but so far, he hasn’t taken advantage of a fertile situation.

Of course, there are flashes. After Franz Wagner torched the Nets for 29/8/8 on 12-of-20 shooting on November 29, Brooklyn came back two days later and shut him down. They switched nearly every pick-and-roll after the first quarter, and with Clax essentially serving as his primary defender, Wagner shot 4-of-17, also turning it over four times…

And while Fernández has cited Claxton’s screening as the most pressing area for immediate improvement, the skinny center has put in some good reps this season…

Of course, it’s not just one skill. Better screening, drop defense, and activity taking the ball to the basket will be notable improvements, but we’re looking for the whole package here. Goga Bitadze is a good NBA player, but Claxton has to outplay him, plain and simple. Get the 50/50 balls, finish through contract, survive 2-on-1 situations as the sole defender. Great players turn negative situations into positive plays.

But it’s not just one source of concern for Claxton either. His health, the ejections for flagrant fouls, the new offensive environment, it’s all of the above, overlaid by the fact that he hasn’t consistently played to his potential in nearly a year-and-a-half.

Nic is 25 years old. He has four seasons left, including this one, on a descending contract that will close at 10% of the salary cap; money is not the issue. And ultimately, it’s too early to be worried about his play, either. He transformed from a second-rounder in the G League to a top-50 player in the NBA within the span of a standard rookie contract. He earned those 100 M’s Brooklyn paid him this summer.

But concerned?

Indeed, I think it’s time to be concerned about Nic Claxton.