Four takeaways and perspective from St. John’s men’s basketball’s 70-62 win over Butler

The Red Storm’s free-throw numbers could signal positive regression for their three-point shooting

After a disappointing loss to the Creighton Blue Jays on New Year’s Eve, the St. Johns Red Storm looked to begin a new winning streak against a Butler Bulldog team that had lost six in a row after a promising start. Recognizing that the team had not been proficient in three-point shooting and was underwhelming shooting from the charity line, attention was given to both skills during the three-day prep time between games.

In the warm-up drills before the start of the game, three Johnnies were taking a multitude of three-point shots assisted by team managers. They were R.J. Luis, Simeon Wilcher, and Lefteris Liotopoulos. Of the three, Luis hit better than fifty percent of his attempts. Wilcher hit perhaps 40 percent and Liotopoulos less.

First half

Kadary Richmond, R.J. Luis, Zuby Ejiofor, Deivon Smith, and Aaron Scott started for the Johnnies. Right from the beginning, the full house of fans was energized for the game. On Butler’s first possession, chants of “defense … defense” rang out. The Red Storm obliged, picking up Bulldogs as they crossed the mid-court line and doggedly defending them, rarely allowing an open shot.

Richmond opened the scoring with a lovely five-foot lefty jumper after taking down a defensive rebound and pushing the ball up the court. Then Scott stole the ball and passed out to Richmond. Richmond pushed the ball up the court and found a cutting Luis under the basket for a layup for a 4-0 lead.

Two Luis baskets extended the lead to 8-0 and the Red Storm defense continued to be impactful to crowd cheers of “Defense … defense”. The Bulldogs were held scoreless for over five minutes, their first score coming when Pierre Brooks hit a layup at the 14:43 mark of the half.

After the Brooks score, Simeon Wilcher replaced Smith, and Sadiku Ayo entered the game. Luis hit a jumper, and Ayo made one of two free throws, the only points in eleven minutes as the Bulldogs pulled ahead 17-11. A Richmond layup and a Scott three-foot turnaround brought the game within four with 4:32 to play in the half.

“Defense … defense” rang out from the crowd, and Ayo hit a three from the right wing, cutting the deficit to one.

After another Brooks three and Smith, demonstrating his speed and aggressiveness, hitting three layups over one minute, found the score tied at 25 with 2:19 to play.

Two Butler jumpers in the last two minutes found the Bulldogs leading 29-25 at the half.

Halftime

Fans agreed that this was a hard fifteen minutes to watch after the first five minutes, during which the Red Storm dominated. Only a one-minute spurt of layups by Smith kept the game close. Luis was doing his part by scoring eight points, but Ejiofor and Wilcher were scoreless.

The team shot thirty percent for the half, which included one for nine on three-point attempts. Fans stated, “We can’t shoot worse on threes in the second half.” Little did they know.

Turnovers were relatively even, with nine for Butler and seven for St. John’s, but the Bulldogs were outrebounding the Johnnies, 24-20.

Second half

The Butler lead increased to seven, 36-29, at the 18:00 play. The Zuby Ejiofor began to assert himself. He was fouled, driving to the basket, and made one of two free throws. A Scott block and feed to Ejiofor led to a dunk and a foul. After Ejiofor hit the free throw, the Butler lead was down to three. The Johnnies went to a full-court press rattling the Bulldogs, and a thirty-second violation was called.

After a Luis steal and dunk, Wilcher hit Ejiofor with a quick pass into the paint, and Ejiofor converted a left-handed hook, and the Johnnies were in the lead by one. Being fouled, Ejiofor hit the free throw, and the Johnnies were up by two, 38-36.

Baskets were exchanged, and the Bulldogs regained the lead at 52-51 with eight minutes to play. It truly was anybody’s game, but the two Bulldog “big men” were in foul trouble.

Kadary Richmond then took over the game. With 4:48 to play, a bullet pass from Richmond to Luis led to a layup and a 57-55 lead. Thirty seconds later, a Richmond steal and layup pushed the margin to four at 59-55.

Brooks hit a three to cut the deficit to one, but Richmond took down a Brooks miss and drove the court for a layup, extending the Johnnies lead to three. The Bulldogs fouled to try to get back into the game, but Ejiofor, Luis, Smith, and Wilcher each made two free throws to seal a 70-62 victory despite the team hitting only one of twenty-one three-point attempts.

Takeaway #1: St. John’s improved their free throw shooting, especially in the clutch

The Johnnies converted 73.9% of their free throws, and most importantly, they went eight for eight in the last two minutes. While the game percentage was not overly impressive, the crunch time performance was. With a team that thrives on attacking the basket, the ability to convert free throws is an important step forward.

Takeaway #2: The Red Storm may not be as bad of a three-point shooting team as they appear

No statistic will suggest that the Johnnies are a good three-point shooting team. However, their improvement in free throw shooting may portend an improvement in distance shooting, mainly when the free throw accuracy came from three players the team feels have capability from three-point distance: Luis, Smith, and Wilcher.

It should be noted that three or four air-balled jumpers were indeed “way off.” This suggests the shooters were pressing. In addition, there were at least three times when shots by St. John’s players were in the basket, spun around, and rimmed out.

R.J. Luis was hitting threes in practice quite frequently before the game. Would a little more practice make a difference for Luis? He seemed to be close to being a reliable shooter. Brady Dunlap, still a month away from returning with a hand injury, is still recognized as the best of the team’s long-distance shooters and could make a difference. The improved free throw shooting was apparent in this game. Similar efforts in practice could make a difference in long-distance shooting.

Takeaway #3: The defense is exceptional, but there are some bad habits to fix

Coach Pitino is correct. Sometimes when an individual misses a shot or throws a ball away, the player doing so throws his hands up in the air or, worse off, briefly argues with a referee. It is a behavior that needs correction. A few seconds late getting back on defense can undo the extraordinary defensive efforts of teammates.

Takeaway #4: The Carnesecca Arena advantage

Cheers of “Defense defense” were frequently heard, beginning with Butler’s first possession to the end of the game. Even when the Johnnies were in a horrendous shooting period for ten minutes in the first half, the fans were calling for defensive effort. When Smith made three layups in a minute in the first half, fans were on their feet immediately calling out “Defense … defense.”

This energy was most helpful, particularly when the team struggled in the first half—the pulse of the crowd kept their energy up and the game close. Playing in Madison Square Garden requires even more energy from fans. It’s tough to sell out the 19,500-seat arena, and when the Johnnies are playing local opponents, they have to deal with a contingent of opposing fans.

Outlook

The poor three-point shooting left fans with lots of questions. One fan said near the end of the game: “How can we shoot one for nineteen?” (this was the percentage at the time). Another fan said, “More surprisingly, how are we winning when shooting one for nineteen.”

The second fan’s statement was more telling. As Coach Pitino said after the game, he was proud of the team for finding a way to win.

Of course, the task becomes significantly harder as Butler is a struggling team.

The improvement in free throw shooting is encouraging. St. John’s is primarily an experienced team, and the players are expressing confidence.

One game at a time. Each contest brings not only a different opponent but a different set of challenges. If one believes in positive regression, the three-point attempts that spun around and out will go in the next time.