The Red Storm open their Big East season against the new-look Blue Demons on Tuesday night
After winning eight of their first ten games, St. John’s stands on reasonably solid ground in their quest to reach the NCAA tournament. Unfortunately for them, the Big East has largely underachieved through out-of-conference play, shrinking the metrics of the conference and the margin for error for teams to reach the NCAA tournament.
One of the few Big East teams to improve their standing in the first month of the season will face St. John’s in the Red Storm’s Big East opener on Tuesday night: the DePaul Blue Demons, led by first-year head coach Chris Holtmann, look like a competitive unit rather than the conference doormat we are accustomed to seeing. The Blue Demons are 8-2 and are coming off a 19-point home win over Wichita State on Saturday.
Game information
Who: St. John’s Red Storm (8-2) vs. DePaul Blue Demons (8-2, 0-1 Big East)
When: Tuesday, December 17, 2024, 6:30 p.m.
Where: Carnesecca Arena, Jamaica, New York
TV: Peacock
Radio: Learfield
Tickets: Ticketmaster
Series History: St. John’s leads 33-22. The Red Storm have won their last five meetings with the Blue Demons by an average margin of 20.4 points.
Injury news
No injury news to report for St. John’s.
What to Watch for in the Storm
It’s not a secret that Zuby Ejiofor is tearing it up recently. Over his last seven games, Ejiofor is averaging 17.6 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game. He has also posted four double-doubles and four games, scoring 22 points or more in that stretch.
Ejiofor has given the Red Storm a decisive advantage in the low block by creating second-chance opportunities and denying shots, averaging 4.5 offensive rebounds per game (which ranks third nationally and first in the Big East) and 2.3 blocks per game (17th-most nationally and second in the Big East).
Deivon Smith is also bringing his lunch pail and hard hat to every game, leading the Red Storm in Bart Torvik’s adjusted defensive rating with 88.7 (ranks fifth among Big East players). Smith also leads the Red Storm in three-point percentage with 38.5% and is in the top three on the team in rebounds per game (5.8) and assists per game (4.8). Smith is showing he deserves more minutes and reps as the point-of-attack defender.
While Ejiofor and Smith have answered the bell, Kadary Richmond is still battling with inconsistency as he learns a new system. Richmond’s nine-point outing versus Bryant is the fourth time he was held to single-digit scoring this season, already matching the number of single-digit-scoring games he had last season in 35 games with Seton Hall. His assist rate has also dropped from 32.6 to 24.9 percent, while his turnover rate has ticked up from 19.0 to 21.5 percent. Perhaps Richmond can elevate his play entering conference season?
Scouting the Blue Demons
Last spring, DePaul hired former Ohio State head coach Chris Holtmann to revitalize the downtrodden program, which just finished arguably their worst season in team history. Holtmann started by bringing in ten new transfers to overhaul the roster with an eye on shooting and experience.
DePaul is shooting threes like they are going out of style, a stark contrast from previous Holtmann-coached teams who tended to operate inside the arc. So far, their three-point shot diet is working for them. The Blue Demons are making 40.4 percent of threes, which is tenth-best in the nation after Saturday, and they are attempting 31.7 triples per game, ranking inside the top 25 nationally.
Seven players are shooting 35 percent or better from deep, and three separate players are firing 46 percent or better from beyond the arc.
They aren’t just a great three-point shooting team, but their offense is one of the most balanced in the country. Eight different players are averaging 7.0 points or more, and nightly starter Troy D’Amico almost makes it nine with 6.7 points per game. According to KenPom, 68.6% of DePaul’s field goals came off assists, ranking second in the country.
This is not to take away from how the Blue Demons started, but all of these promising numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. DePaul has played the ninth-weakest non-conference schedule to this point, according to KenPom.
Unsurprisingly for a team that shoots threes at will, DePaul isn’t a good offensive rebounding team with an offensive rebound percentage of 31.3%. The Blue Demons prefer to play a half-court game, scoring only 10.3% of their points off the fastbreak.
Keys to the game
Don’t let DePaul get hot from three – Expect a lot of threes to be taken from the Blue Demons, regardless of whether they are hitting them. The Red Storm must close out on shooters and prevent them from getting to their spot for catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Show more energy in the first half – St. John’s started slowly in home non-conference games. We’ll see if that is a product of not being motivated to play buy-game mid-majors, but they cannot let that happen in Big East play. Play a full forty minutes starting Tuesday night.
Drive to the basket at will – The Blue Demons struggled to contain dribble drives and cuts to the rim against Texas Tech and Providence. Richmond, Smith, Luis, and company should stick to their strengths and attack the basket.
Prediction
Even if DePaul drills threes at their typical rate, they will struggle to keep up with the Red Storm’s physicality and offensive tempo. The Johnnies should win the rebounding battle and attack the rim without much resistance. St. John’s wins, 82-70.