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Syracuse embarrassed itself once again this weekend, blowing a 13-point lead with 11 minutes left against Virginia Tech, falling 101-95 in overtime. It was déjà vu for SU, which blew a 16-point first-half lead against Pittsburgh two weeks ago. The Orange’s collapse in Blacksburg was even more embarrassing. VT entered Saturday’s contest averaging 69 points per game, and it was also without its leading scorer Tobi Lawal (12.5 points per game).
Despite these circumstances, the Hokies put up 63 points in the second half and overtime, hitting 63% of their shots from the field.
The Orange now take on SMU in their final road game and penultimate regular-season game. The Mustangs have fared well in their inaugural Atlantic Coast Conference season, sitting in fourth place in the conference with a chance at making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017.
Here’s how our beat writers feel Syracuse (12-17, 6-12 ACC) will fare in its first-ever meeting with SMU (21-8, 12-6 ACC):
Zak Wolf (24-5)
No defense = Big problems
Syracuse 74, SMU 93
Cones could have done a better job of defending than Syracuse over the past month. SU’s display against Virginia Tech was the latest in an embarrassing stretch. It’d be one thing if the Hokies were a good offensive team, but they aren’t, and the Orange made them look unstoppable. Now facing an actual elite offense in SMU, Syracuse is going to struggle even more and falter once again.
The Mustangs hurt teams in multiple ways, but mostly with their depth. They have six different players averaging at least 10 points per game, but nobody over 14. Boopie Miller — who’s expected to return after a five-game absence — and Chuck Harris pose a dangerous threat in the backcourt as SMU’s two leading scorers. Syracuse’s guards won’t be able to stay in front of this duo, while its frontcourt will have a handful with 7-foot-2 Samet Yiğitoğlu.
In seven games in February, Syracuse only held Cal and NC State to under 80 points. SU’s provided little resistance, and that won’t change Tuesday. If there’s one positive from the Orange’s recent play, it’s that it’s built an identity of pounding the ball in the paint. Over the past two games, it’s totaled 94, though no matter how many points Syracuse can score there, it won’t make up for its lack of defense in this one.
Aiden Stepansky (24-5)
Dallas domination
Syracuse 75, SMU 89
While the Mustangs have stumbled as of late, the Orange would be lucky for this to be a close game. SU’s latest rendition of embarrassment saw yet another blown opportunity to beat a middling team. Now, Syracuse will pay the price and fall yet again in Dallas.
The formula of SMU’s high-powered offense and SU’s horrid defense is a scary sight for the Orange. Syracuse has proven game after game — other than an outlier against NC State — that it simply doesn’t know how to stop its opponent from scoring. The Mustangs average 81.7 points per game with a 38.4% clip from 3. They’ll likely replicate or even expand their metrics against the Orange, who have allowed 78.8 points per game and just let one of the worst offenses in the conference almost drop its game average in the final 25 minutes.
Syracuse’s offense really hasn’t been too much of a problem lately, scoring-wise, but its top metric throughout the year has been its rebounding. While the Orange clear the glass better than 15 other teams in the ACC, SMU ranks first. The Mustangs’ 39.3 rebounds per game rank 25th in the nation and will certainly give SU some trouble. The three of us have been split as of late, but this one we can all agree on. Mustangs by double digits.
Justin Girshon (23-6)
The horse is here
Syracuse 71, SMU 88
As I mentioned in the prediction article ahead of the Virginia Tech game, the ACC is extremely weak this year. It’s so weak that SMU, which sits fourth in the conference’s standings, is currently on the outside looking in on the NCAA Tournament.
Since March Madness resumed following the COVID-19 cancellation in 2020, at least five ACC teams have made the tournament each season. Currently, only Duke, Clemson and Louisville appear to have spots locked in.
That being said, the Mustangs are barely on the periphery. That means they not only need to beat SU, but they also need to beat it by a decent margin. Based on KenPom’s projected score of 85-72, that margin should be about a dozen points.
And I think SMU will clear that, dominating from wire to wire en route to a 17-point win. The Orange simply can’t win, even if they have a 95% win probability in the second half, as they did against VT. With the Mustangs badly needing a big win against a team that can’t win, I envision them getting the job done.
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