The new-look Huskies will finally get to test themselves
The UConn men’s basketball season starts tomorrow, for all intents and purposes. The No. 2 ranked Huskies open up the 2024 Maui Invitational with an afternoon throwback AAC clash against the 4-0 Memphis Tigers. UConn could have — and did, for some portions — sleepwalk through four-straight games against teams deep in the KenPom 300’s. Now, Dan Hurley and the untested Huskies get a Penny Hardaway squad that ranks 30 in KenPom and fresh off a solid win against San Francisco.
UConn hasn’t played in the Maui Invitational since 2010, and will be looking for a similar coming-out party.
The Huskies have won by an average margin of over 37 points, but sit dead last in the country in KenPom’s Strength of Schedule metric. For a team with so many new pieces and a still unsettled rotation, the step up in competition that Maui has to offer will likely answer a lot of questions.
TV: ESPN
Radio: UConn Sports Network
Odds: UConn -10, over/under 151.5
Location: Lahaina Civic Center – Maui, Hawaii
KenPom Predicted Score: UConn 76, Memphis 70 (71 percent win probability)
Series History
The Huskies haven’t faced Memphis since Christian Vital poured in 23 points for a 64-61 win back in 2020. The last time the two teams played on a neutral court was in 2016, when UConn dispatched Memphis 72-58 en route to an AAC conference championship. The all-time series is tied at 8-8, with seven of those outcomes decided by five points or less.
What to Watch For
Which unknowns become known?
Only eight percent of Memphis’ returning scoring production returns from last season, which includes none of their top six scorers. Memphis’ backcourt of Tyrese Hunter and PJ Haggerty come by way of Texas, and Tulsa, respectively. They may be undersized at 6-feet and 6-foot-2, but they are volume scorers that can carry an offense.
Dain Dainja, who put up 18 points and seven rebounds off the bench against the Dons over the weekend, was a non-factor for Illinois against UConn last year. The last time UConn fans saw Moussa Cisse, Adama Sanogo was stuffing the seven footer and Oklahoma State into a locker. Now he anchors the paint for the Tigers.
Memphis teams will always have talent, but the final product is often less than the sum of its parts. Penny was vocal in the offseason about injecting more toughness and physicality into this year’s team. Coming out and punching the back-to-back national champions in the mouth will go a long way in changing the narrative.
Meanwhile, UConn is replacing four NBA picks. Aidan Mahaney is still looking to break out. Tarris Reed is averaging damn near a double-double, but there’s no size advantage tomorrow. Liam McNeeley has been as advertised and will need to continue to play beyond his years. Does Solo Ball continue his sophomore leap? Alex Karaban is having an All American season —he’s No. 21 in Evan Miya’s BPM player rating — but is he ready to be the go-to guy down the stretch?
F-T-R
Fouls, turnovers, and rebounds. When you’re a team still searching for its identity and with something to prove, the little things win games. Samson Johnson is an elite shot-blocking threat and rim runner, but has more fouls than rebounds this year. Haggerty is a contact-seeking missile, averaging 9.5 free throws per game this year. If Slamson picks up two cheap ones, it puts a lot of pressure on Reed to play clean, or else we’re getting our first look at small ball this year. And with Dain Dainja emerging as a bruising inside presence, UConn will need its two bigs playing freely into the second half.
The Huskies committed more turnovers than assists against East Texas A&M. You can chalk a lot of that up to the complacency that comes from playing four-straight cupcakes, but Memphis won’t be waiting around for UConn to start taking care of the rock. Penny will press, and the Tigers’ adjusted KenPom tempo sits at 41st in the country. Especially with so many new pieces on both ends, don’t be surprised to see this turn into a mistake-filled track meet.
In the halfcourt, the Huskies have lacked that pristine crispness fans have become accustomed to seeing the last two years. Instead, UConn is overwhelming weaker teams with their depth. If the execution still isn’t there and only marginally better, does Hurley run his rotation to nine and bet on that depth winning out again?
The Lions won the offensive rebounding margin on Tuesday, by six. You can bet that kept Tom Moore up at night. Complacency is again the culprit, but getting bodies on Dainja, Cisse, and Nicholas Jourdain is priority number one.
Does the schedule strike back?
Memphis hasn’t run a gauntlet, but wins against Missouri, at UNLV, at San Francisco, and Ohio University still pop, especially considering they trailed at the half against all but Ohio. That’s some early-season adversity that has been conquered, and the type of ingrained confidence UConn needs right now. Hurley can pump up and mentally prepare his guys as much as he wants, but real confidence comes from experience. It may take a half for the Huskies to adjust to the level. If the Huskies are in an early hole, you can be Hurley will have some regrets about scheduling four-straight cupcakes.
Captain America
Karaban has been lights out this year, shooting 55 percent from three and 63.6 percent from the field. He’s blocking shots like he stole Donovan Clingan’s mojo and is second on the team in assists. But his usage rate is still only 15 percent. Against the step up in competition, this is the first chance for the junior to become The Man. Kemba Walker put UConn on his back as a junior in 2011, look for Karaban to do the same.