The Huskies head to Austin for another tough nonconference matchup.
UConn men’s basketball has done everything in its power to forget about the Maui meltdown. They held onto their Top 25 ranking by the skin of their teeth, then rewarded AP voters’ faith with a gutsy win vs. No. 15 Baylor on Wednesday. To put a bow on the bounce-back week, the Huskies (5-3) will look to topple Texas (7-1) on Sunday, Dec. 8 at 5 p.m. ET.
Texas ranks 35th in KenPom overall, with a 55th-ranked offense and 19th-ranked defense. Longhorns head coach Rodney Terry stocks his roster with versatile, switchy defenders that disrupt north-south ball movement. They rank third in the country per Bart Torvik in two-point defense, but struggle to convert threes, sitting 300th in the country at only 33.7 percent. Texas enters Sunday’s contest with a 21-0 record all-time in non-conference games in the Moody Center. The Longhorns also are 7-2 against AP Top 25 opponents in Moody Center history.
UConn might be the slightly better team on paper, but home teams have defended their turf with ferocity this season. Only Michigan has picked up a road dub this season, while ranked teams like Kansas, Kentucky, and Cincinnati all fell this week away from home. If UConn’s defense can continue to trend in the right direction and the offense can handle a road environment, Maui will be but a distant memory.
TV: ESPN
Radio: UConn Sports Network
Odds: TBD
Location: Moody Center — Austin, Texas
KenPom Predicted Score: Texas 73, UConn 70 (41% percent win probability)
Series History
UConn is 4-1 all-time vs. Texas, and took down the Longhorns 81-71 last year in the Champions Classic title game at Madison Square Garden. UConn beat Texas in Austin back in 2015 by five thanks to 18 points from Rodney Purvis, but the Huskies have never played at the new Moody Center, which opened in 2022.
What to Watch For
Battle of the freshmen
Texas’ success this season starts and ends with Tre Johnson, an ESPN Top 10 recruit and one of the most electric bucket-getters in the country. The 6-foot-6 freshman is averaging 20.8 points per game on 48 percent from the field, while shooting the three at a 44.6 percent clip on seven attempts per game. On a roster devoid of shot creators, Johnson’s usage rate of 28 percent means he has the greenest of green lights nearly every possession.
UConn’s 3-point percentage defense is 344th in the country, and while there were visible signs of improvement versus Baylor, the Bears still shot 35% from three. Does Liam McNeeley get the assignment to check Johnson? The Husky freshmen is slighter taller than Johnson but is not as experienced as Alex Karaban. Does Hassan Diarra, UConn’s highest-rated individual defender, get a few possessions? Jayden Ross looked a little out of depth in the second half versus Baylor, but has the athleticism and frame that matches Johnson.
Given McNeeley’s maestro performance on Wednesday, this could be a game where two future lottery picks trade highlights. Add in the fact that it’s a de facto home game for McNeeley, who grew up about three hours from Austin, and its entirely possible the freshman follows up his game against Baylor with another big one.
Injury updates
For the rest of Texas’ backcourt, Julian Larry and Jordan Pope should get the Diarra treatment. A minor concern is off-guard spot; Arkansas transfer and leading scorer last year Tramon Mark has missed four games this year with an ankle injury, but is starting to ramp up. Indiana State transfer Jayson Kent could return Sunday as well, giving the Longhorns another lengthy two-way threat to trot out there.
For UConn, Karaban is officially back in the action and will slot right back into his spot in the starting five. Freshman guard Ahmad Nowell won’t be available after suffering a shoulder sprain in practice. Per head coach Dan Hurley, Nowell’s injury isn’t a long term issue, but the freshmen who was one of the few bright spots in Maui is out for the weekend.
Double Big Men Across the Sky
Karaban’s absence on Wednesday forced Hurley and the staff to commit modern-day sacrilege in college basketball—double bigs! Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed shared the court for some critical minutes in the second half, and the results were…pretty, pretty good?
With Alex Karaban out, UConn deployed a new two-big lineup yesterday with both Tarris Reed and Samson Johnson on the floor, to good effect in a few minutes.
Here’s how that lineup looks at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax. It’s predicted efficiency ranks 16th out of 78 UConn lineups. pic.twitter.com/MJ4vCqW8wO
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) December 5, 2024
Who knows if this was a ‘break glass in case of emergency scenario.’ But as Evan Miya notes, inserting Alex Karaban as the three next to the two bigs yields some pretty enticing analytics.
Absolute dynamite! It would theoretically be the best lineup UConn has.
My model does take into account positional and role imbalances, but it doesn’t spot anything way out of the ordinary here. pic.twitter.com/1Q9VGKBJZj
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) December 5, 2024
Inside for Texas, old Big East friend Arthur Kaluma has either punished UConn or done a disappearing act. But he leads Texas in rebounding (7.0 rebounds per game) and ranks second in scoring (14.4 points per game), blocks (7) and minutes (30.5 mpg) and tied for second in assists (18) while hitting 59.0-percent (36-61) from the floor, including a 7-of-17 (41.2) mark from 3-point range, this season. I’m not sure that’s the type of player to pair against the foul prone bigs.
Karaban will likely check Kaluma and the double-big feature will have to be put on ice for now, especially because Kadin Shedrick’s mobility at 6-foot-11 must be tracked off-the-ball to avoid extra possessions or silly fouls. Shedrick didn’t play in last year’s matchup due to a shoulder injury, and UConn capitalized on his absence, owning Texas 40-29 on the boards.
Beyond the double bigs, UConn still has rotation question marks to be answered. Is Aidan Mahaney the microwave off the bench, or will he play his way back to the starting lineup? Can Solo Ball improve on his glaring defensive metrics? Jaylin Stewart was awesome in relief for Karaban, and his minutes should still be in the 20-25 range.
Texas’ first test and other musings
The Longhorns are 3-0 against the KenPom Top 100, and the road win vs. N.C. State on Wednesday qualifies as a Quad 2 in the NET. Texas’ strength of schedule rating on KenPom is 333rd in the country, while UConn’s still sits at 328th. Given the Maui malaise, the Huskies are arguably more battle-tested, and we saw firsthand how teams can slowly react to a ramped up level of play.
The win over Baylor without Karaban was the perfect palate cleanser from Maui, but away from the friendly confines of Gampel, can the coaching staff continue to push the right buttons and keep the team’s mental edge sharp? Hurley has been vocal about his pivot from unflinching driver of perfection to more of a hype man hellbent on lifting his team up.
The Gampel crowd seemed to be cathartic for players still learning how to execute their roles. Can that carry over in a hostile environment? Quad 1 wins never come easy, and Sunday night will be no exception.