The Huskies look to keep the positive vibes rolling to start 2025.
No. 11 UConn men’s basketball looks to start 2025 on a high note as it travels to DePaul for a New Year’s Day battle. The Huskies are winners of six consecutive games since returning from the Maui Invitational, including victories over then-No. 8 Gonzaga and then-No. 15 Baylor, with a pair of two-possession wins over Xavier and Butler to start Big East play. However, they’ve played just two games since December 15 and last took to the floor December 21. The Blue Demons started 7-0, six of which were against KenPom sub-200 competition, but are 2-4 since, with all four losses against top-100 squads.
TV: CBS Sports Network
Radio: UConn Sports Network
Odds: UConn -10.5, over/under 146.5
Location: Wintrust Arena — Chicago
KenPom Predicted Score: UConn 80, DePaul 72 (74 percent win probability)
Series History
UConn is 19-1 against DePaul since the teams first played in the second round of the 2004 NCAA Tournament, which was the last time the Blue Demons made and won a game in the Big Dance. Jim Calhoun’s squad took the victory on the way to its second national championship. DePaul won the first conference game between the two squads three years later, but the Huskies are on an 18-game winning streak, 13 of which were by double-digits and one of which was by less than seven.
The Huskies have played on 152 different days since the program started tracking game dates in the 1950-51 season and January 1 is the only one of those days on which they have not won, with an 0-3 record. The first game in 1969 against Utah, with more recent defeats to Marquette (2013) and Cincinnati (2020).
What to Watch For
3-point variance
DePaul has among the lowest defensive 3-point rates in the country, as just 30.6 percent of opposing field goals are 3-pointers, which is sixth in the country. These offenses also don’t hit at a high rate, with just a 30.5 percent 3-point percentage (No. 73). UConn is fairly reliant on the 3-point shot, with a top-75 conversion rate (36.0 percent). More than 45 percent of its field goal attempts are also from behind the arc.
On the other side of the ball, the Blue Demons are lethal, converting on 38.9 percent of their 3-pointers, which is in the country’s top 25, while nearly half of their field goal attempts are deep shots. DePaul generates 43.5 percent of its points from such shots, which is third in the country. Meanwhile, the Huskies allow opponents to shoot 38.8 percent, which is among the 15 worst marks in the country. This could be due to small sample size, as they’re in the top 25 of limiting 3-point attempts. UConn’s opponents take deep shots just 32.5 percent of the time, which is No. 21 nationally.
One of the highest variance events in a basketball game is the 3-point shot and on both sides of the floor, DePaul is ripe for it, particularly with the rate at which teams involved in UConn games convert deep shots. If the Blue Demons can take (and make) a bunch of 3-pointers, then they’re live for an upset. If not, they may not be able to keep up with UConn’s offense. Four of DePaul’s rotation players are over 40 percent from deep, so there will always be someone that’s a threat.
Hurley: “Right now, we’re a national championship and Big East championship contenders. But defensively, we’re not contenders. We’re defending like pretenders.”
— David Borges (@DaveBorges) December 31, 2024
Rest vs. rust
Most often a discussion during the NFL playoffs surrounding the teams that secure a first-round bye, the time between games for UConn makes it a point of discussion. The Huskies haven’t played since Dec. 21, which is an 11-day layoff. This is the longest such period of the season, as the team has sat for six days twice, one of which was before the Maui Invitational, and is four days longer than the next-longest break, as the Huskies have a bye in conference play between Jan. 11 and 18.
This long break could be an advantage for the Huskies. Even without Zach Freemantle, Xavier scored 1.25 points per possession, though this was partially due to an 18-for-21 performance from the free-throw line and 13-for-24 from beyond the arc. Butler was at 1.09 points per possession and owned a 60.9 percent assist rate the last time out. Neither offense is in the top 50 of KenPom.
It’s clear the defense isn’t as good as it was last season. Donovan Clingan and Stephon Castle were great defenders and losing that big presence in the middle on which guards could rely takes some adjustment. Vibes have been much better since returning to the mainland, but the defense has lagged behind the offense thus far. Surely Dan Hurley used the break to try and work out some of the kinks.
Which team can move the ball better?
One of UConn’s biggest strengths is its offensive sets and ability to move the ball to create open shots, either from beyond the arc or around the rim. The Huskies are second in the country in assist rate, as 67.3 percent of their made field goals come on helpers. Interestingly, DePaul is third (66.5 percent).
Conor Enright is 13th in the nation with a 39.0 percent assist rate and the offense flows through him, as Layden Blocker (22.3 percent) is the only other player in the rotation above 20 percent. Hassan Diarra is No. 15 (38.5 percent) and Ahmad Nowell is at 35.4 percent, but doesn’t play enough minutes to qualify.
Where the teams diverge is the ability to limit ball movement. UConn allows an assist on 43.2 percent of opponents’ made shots (No. 32), while the Blue Demons are much more mediocre, ranked No. 124 (49.7 percent). Neither team is exceptional at forcing live-ball turnovers nor do they play terribly fast, which means a lot of the game will be played in the half-court, making ball movement — and defending it — paramount.