The Huskies will be shorthanded as they get ready to face their Big East rivals from a neighboring state.
No. 11 UConn men’s basketball host Providence on Sunday, Jan. 5, and is going for its best start to conference play since 2010-2011.
These two regional rivals are moving in opposite directions; the Huskies (11-3, 3-0) are winners of seven straight, while the Friars (7-7, 1-2) have lost three straight. UConn boasts the no. 2 KenPom offense in the country but still sits at no. 95 for KenPom defense, and must begin a one-month journey without star freshman Liam McNeeley, out for “weeks” with a high ankle sprain, according to Dan Hurley.
If the Huskies are going to navigate a post-McNeeley life, the Friars are a team you want to start with. Providence is a mess (KenPom no. 88, no. 132 offense and no. 77 offense). A lot of the luster from Kim English’s first season has worn off, with lottery pick Devin Carter looking more and more like a band-aid that covered up a lot of warts for last year’s squad.
However, the Friars’ poor record and equally poor analytics don’t paint the whole picture. Star forward Bryce Hopkins has only played three games this season as he works his way back from an ACL injury suffered last year. He played three games in December before tweaking it again against DePaul. If he suits up tomorrow and UConn struggles to replicate McNeeley’s two-way impact in the aggregate this could be a tighter game than expected.
TV: NBC
Radio: UConn Sports Network
Odds: UConn -13, over/under 137
Location: Gampel Pavilion
KenPom Predicted Score: UConn 77, Providence 64 (88% win probability)
Series History
UConn is 33-20 all-time vs. the Friars and has won the last four games. Providence hasn’t beaten the Huskies in Connecticut since 2021 and hasn’t beaten UConn at Gampel since 2004. A win for UConn tomorrow would tie their longest streak against its rival, going back to 2000.
What to Watch For
Life Without Liam
McNeeley ranks no. 24 in the country per hoop-explorer’s RAPM, which tries to measure the overall contributions of every player and ranks as the third-best player in the Big East behind Kam Jones and Eric Dixon. He’s UConn’s best playmaker, a guy who can break the first line of defense, make the right read, or draw contact and get to the line. UConn has an absurd 71.2% assist rate with McNeeley on the court and a more pedestrian 59.5% with him off. Their defense has also been 10 points per 100 better with Liam on the court this season, because you can never have enough positionally-aware 6’7 dudes that can switch 2 through 4.
The good news is that the Huskies are deepest at the wing, and even a slight step back in offensive efficiency is still a top 20 unit in the country. That means more minutes for Jaylin Stewart, who can score inside-out, be a secondary playmaker, and guard multiple positions. Jayden Ross makes an impact defensively, and now necessity means the sophomore can play through the rough patches on offense. Aidan Mahaney has found a little something lately, scoring seven points apiece in his last two games. He’ll have more ball-handling responsibility to be the creator who gets paint touches with Liam out.
Not Nice Without Bryce
Providence has looked lost without Hopkins; Jayden Pierre and Bensley Joseph are the only Friars averaging double-digit scoring on the year. The two 6’2 guards are excellent role players in the right system, but their usage rates are way too high for what they excel at. With no real point guard, Providence’s assist rate ranks among the worst in the conference and their turnover percentage is 304th in the country. Against Marquette, the Friars had 22 turnovers.
Hopkins is averaging 17.0 points and 7.7 rebounds per game in three contests this year. Providence ranks no. 29 nationally in Bart Torvik metrics for those games and has what would be the best defensive efficiency in the Big East. Three games is a small sample size though, and the actual results of those three games were mixed; they beat the brakes off of BYU with their best offensive efficiency of the season but laid an egg to in-state rival Rhode Island and needed overtime to beat DePaul.
But make no mistake, this is an entirely different Providence if the 6’8 Hopkins is suiting up. His size and strength can make life difficult for Alex Karaban or Stewart, while his quickness and range could put Samson Johnson or Tarris Reed —both foul-prone but getting better at it — in uncomfortable positions. And with teams sending doubles to combat the mismatch nightmare, Pierre, Joseph, and Wesley Cardet Jr are much more comfortable attacking unset rotations.
While UConn has made positional strides defensively and even tinkered with some switching vs. DePaul, the jury is out on how they guard when teams take turns with 1v1 matchups, which is what Providence will look to do regardless of Hopkins’ availability.
The Inside-Out Game
With or without Hopkins, rim protection is something the Friars have struggled with, sitting at 238th in block percentage. Their best shot blocker, Oswin Erhunmwunse, averages roughly 6 fouls per 40 minutes and only averages 14 minutes per game. Johnson has resumed his upward trajectory since returning from his concussion, and his verticality can really stretch Providence’s defense.
Providence’s forced turnover rate is virtually nonexistent at no. 338 nationally. With UConn’s assist rate second in the country, and the way Hassan Diarra is taking care of the ball — 45 assists, nine turnovers in the last five games — the Huskies should be able to run their stuff and get the looks they want.
However, Providence’s effective field goal percentage defense ranks 22nd overall, and their three-point defense sits at no. 43 in the country. With the way Solo Ball is shooting though, it may not matter. Thanks to the sophomore’s best Jordan Hawkins impression on Wednesday with a career-high seven (!) triples, UConn is now 33/77 (42.8%) from three in Big East play. Karaban and Ball are shooting 43% and 45% from three on the season, respectively.
Hopkins participated in warmups against Marquette, then had a front-row seat to watch the Friars get punked on their home court. Providence has one road win this year, but the McNeeley absence will ring loud throughout the conference; now could be the time to gain ground on UConn.
Per English, “He’s (Hopkins) is getting a lot closer,” Providence coach Kim English said. “He’s feeling better and better each day. He just came down on it against DePaul and it swelled up. Everything structurally is fine. He’s just working to have less and less pain each day.”
Hurley and the staff aren’t stupid, they’re preparing as if Hopkins is playing. Look for UConn to throw a bunch of different looks at Hopkins, speed him up to eat into his conditioning, and force someone else to beat them. McNeeley, Ball, or Karaban have been UConn’s leading scorer in every game this season but one. With the freshman out, look for Ball and Karaban to handle the increased scoring burden, while Mahaney, Ross, Stewart, and the bigs try to find enough winning plays to get the job done.