UConn looks to get its 72nd win inside Madison Square Garden.
No. 18 UConn men’s basketball will play for the 72nd time inside the fourth iteration of Madison Square Garden on Saturday night as the Huskies will meet the No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs in Midtown Manhattan as part of the Basketball Hall of Fame Series.
UConn has rebounded well from its disaster in the Maui Invitational, scoring victories over Baylor and Texas the last two times out, while the Bulldogs followed up a 2-1 trip in the Battle 4 Atlantis with an overtime defeat against Kentucky in Seattle.
TV: FOX
Radio: UConn Sports Network
Odds: Gonzaga -3, O/U 152
Location: Madison Square Garden — New York, NY
KenPom Predicted Score: Gonzaga 80, UConn 76 (38 percent percent win probability)
Series History
UConn has a 5-2 record against Gonzaga since the first matchup that came in the 1999 Elite Eight. Richard Hamilton led all scorers with 21 points on 9-for-16 scoring on the way to the program’s first national championship. The Huskies also earned an 18-point win in the 2023 Elite Eight to bring the team to another Final Four and eventually its fifth title.
Of the five regular season games the programs have played, four of them, plus Saturday’s contest, have featured two ranked teams.
What to Watch For
What to do with Graham Ike?
The senior is sixth in the KenPom player of the year rankings and features heavily in the site’s second-ranked offense. The 6-foot-9, 250-pound center is fifth nationally in usage rate (34.1 percent) and shoots 55.6 percent on 2-pointers with a respectable 73.7 percent on free-throws. Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed Jr. will surely have their hands full, but not only because of Ike’s offensive prowess.
Ike draws 8.9 fouls per 40 minutes, which leads the country. Johnson and Reed have had problems with fouls all season and against Texas the last time out, each were whistled three times in 14 and 17 minutes, respectively. This has pushed UConn’s opponents to get to the line at among the highest rates in the country, as the Huskies’ defense is No. 342 in free throw attempts as a share of field goal attempts.
This is part of why UConn’s defensive efficiency is down near No. 100 in KenPom and will be a matchup to watch. If the platoon at center can keep the fouls under control and play strong defense on Ike, then the Huskies will be able to negate one of the Bulldogs’ biggest advantages.
Winning the turnover battle
Gonzaga is elite at taking care of the ball. The Bulldogs are second in turnover percentage at 12.4 percent and had just six turnovers in an overtime loss against Kentucky the last time out for an 8.1 percent turnover rate.
UConn doesn’t need to force turnovers to win, as its defense is very active and aggressive in forcing sub-par shots. In the 2023 Elite Eight, the Huskies forced just nine Bulldogs turnovers and only allowed 0.75 points per possession. This season, Dan Hurley’s defense is above average at forcing turnovers but is far from elite, with a 17.7 percent turnover rate, which is No. 118 in the country.
The Bulldogs won’t give UConn many opportunities for easy baskets, which means half-court defense will be crucial. Hurley has discussed the Huskies’ need to improve defensively, as the switches and rotations haven’t always been up to his standard. It’ll be important to do so on Saturday.
Can Alex Karaban do his thing?
Karaban made his return on Sunday against Texas and looked like he didn’t skip a beat, securing a double-double with 21 points and 11 rebounds, including 3-for-5 on 3-pointers. It’s abundantly clear he is the straw that stirs the drink for UConn and he’ll need to do the same against the best team on the schedule so far this year.
Karaban is 20th in the country in offensive rating and is in the top 50 in true shooting percentage, on the back of his 48.1 percent 3-point percentage that’s in the top 75. He and Hurley have discussed his need to be more assertive and the Huskies will need their star to be the best he can be against Gonzaga.