The Huskies head to Cincinnati with a tough road matchup agains the Musketeers
TV: FOX
Radio: UConn Sports Network
Odds: Xavier -1.5, over/under 141
Location: Cintas Center — Cincinnati, Ohio
KenPom Predicted Score: Xavier 74, UConn 72 (44 percent win probability)
Series History
UConn is 7-4 all-time against Xavier in a series that dates back to 1991. The Huskies took down the Musketeers 94-89 in overtime earlier this season in UConn’s Big East opener at the XL Center.
What to Watch For
Injury update
Alex Karaban is still recovering from an ankle injury that the junior suffered in last week’s loss to Creighton, but gutted out the Butler game and posted one of his best performances in conference play with a 19-point, seven-rebound and six-assist game. Per head coach Dan Hurley, Karaban hasn’t practiced with the team but will be good to go against Xavier. Following Saturday’s matchup with the Musketeers, UConn has three days off before welcoming DePaul to the XL Center on Wednesday, Jan. 29.
Hurley also told the media that freshman Liam McNeeley is improving from his high ankle sprain, but won’t be available against Xavier.
The return of Zach Freemantle
Xavier’s Zach Freemantle is finally healthy after dealing with a myriad of injuries, and the senior big is making his presence felt. The Teaneck, New Jersey native has hit double figures in each of the six games he has played since missing three matchups due to a knee injury, and posted double-doubles in wins over DePaul and Marquette.
At 6-foot-9 and 227 pounds, Freemantle is another sizable forward who figures to be a tough defensive matchup for the Huskies, especially with McNeeley out. Karaban and Jaylin Stewart figure to get the bulk of the work guarding Freemantle, but Karaban has struggled at times this season with one-on-one defense, best evidenced by Butler’s Jahmyl Telfort’s 25-point performance on Tuesday night.
With Karaban struggling, Stewart, Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed Jr. will need to band together to keep the fifth-year big off the boards as much as possible to eliminate extra possessions. In the matchup earlier this season with Freemantle sidelined due to injury, Xavier nearly out rebounded UConn, but the Huskies maintained a 35-27 edge without Johnson, who sat out as he recovered from concussion.
Freemantle has also been the focal point of the Xavier offense since his return, ranking seventh in the Big East in usage rate. With the ball in his hands so often, Freemantle has also drawn fouls at a decent clip, meaning UConn’s foul-prone bigs (Karaban included) will need to contest shots but focus on staying out of foul trouble.
Defend the perimeter
In UConn’s Big East opener, Xavier hit a ton of tough shots from deep to stay in the game and shot 13-24 (54.2 percent) from beyond the arc. That was obviously an aberration, as the Musketeers shoot 38.2 percent (23rd nationally) from three and UConn, one of the worst teams in the country in opponent 3-point percentage, gives up threes at a rate of 37.4 percent, but it’s evidence that Xavier has the shooting necessary to keep up with an elite offense like UConn.
Dante Maddox (5-9 from three against UConn) has largely been a non-factor since his 22-point game against the Huskies, but UConn still needs to worry about Ryan Conwell (39.6 percent from three) and Marcus Foster (44.8 percent on 67 attempts) from deep. If the Huskies can pressure the perimeter and force tough shots or force Freemantle, a 28.9 percent 3-point shooter, to beat them from deep, the Huskies’ offense should travel well enough to out-slug the Musketeers, regardless of how ugly things get for UConn on the defensive end.