Preview: No. 19 UConn men’s basketball vs. No. 12 St. John’s | 8:00 p.m, FOX

Will Liam McNeeley’s return help UConn unlock St. John’s stifling defense?

You want UConn, you get UConn. The No. 19 men’s basketball team welcomes the No. 12 St. John’s Red Storm (20-3, 11-1 Big East) tomorrow night in a marquee matchup that will help decide the Big East season. The Fighting Rick Pitinos are winners of nine-straight and are coming off a top 15 win against Marquette.

UConn (16-6, 8-3 Big East) is also coming off a win against Marquette, on the road, and has since had six days off. A win for UConn on $2 beer night would cut St. John’s Big East lead to one, with another head-to-head matchup to go in Storrs South.

This has potential to be one of the best games of the year in the Big East, if not the entire country. UConn will welcome back star freshman Liam McNeeley— albeit on a minutes restriction — after a nine game absence recovering from an ankle injury. However, the Huskies won’t be 100%; Hassan Diarra and Aidan Mahaney are both game time decisions, and freshman point guard Ahmad Nowell remains out with an ankle injury.

Given their shooting woes, elite offensive rebounding, and physical defense, St. John’s are reminiscent of those nightmare Houston teams that muck up games down to their level, then take advantage of their size and athleticism. Or if you really want to go back, there are some striking similarities to Pitino’s 2013* NCAA championship Louisville Cardinals.

Unstoppable force, meet immovable object. It took just one season for Pitino to put his blueprint on the Johnnies. They’re the No. 4 ranked KenPom defense in the country featuring physical, switchy athletes up and down the roster. UConn, meanwhile, boasts the 10th best offense in the country per KenPom, and has seen a star turn from sophomore Solo Ball in McNeeley’s absence. These are some of the most unbalanced teams in the country, which sets up a ton of intriguing storylines to follow, and a game script that could go any which way.

TV: FOX

Radio: UConn Sports Network

Odds: UConn -2, over/under 140.5

Location: Gampel Pavilion, Storrs, CT

KenPom Predicted Score: UConn 72, St. John’s 71 (xx% win probability

Series History

The Huskies are 32-21 all-time vs. their longtime conference rivals from Queens. UConn has won the last four, and dispatched Rick Pitino three times last season alone. Factor in the second-half detonation of Iona in the 2023 NCAA tournament, and Slick Rick hasn’t won against UConn since 2014, a fact that Pitino surely hasn’t thought about at all.

What to Watch For

Who Guards the Husky Killer

This question determines the game. Kadary Richmond has been a thorn in UConn’s side for four years; ball-knowers still shiver at his 28-point performance for Seton Hall in 2021. And just when fans thought they were rid of him, Pitino threw the bag at the former Pirate. While statistically Richmond has taken a step back this year, he’s still the straw that stirs the drink for the Johnnies. He’s their best two-way player, per Evan Miya, despite shooting only 23% from three and 49.2% from the free throw line.

Few players in the country can keep Kooks out of the lane when he’s attacking downhill. Does the 6-foot-7 McNeeley —UConn’s best-rated individual defender— get thrown into the fire fresh off injury and try to contain a first-team All-Big East talent?

Jaylin Stewart is also an option, as the sophomore was excellent containing Villanova’s mismatch nightmare Eric Dixon. At 6-foot-7, he has the size and strength to check Richmond. Jayden Ross could get some reps too. It’s going to take a bunch of different looks to slow Richmond down. And whoever doesn’t guard Richmond will have to match up with RJ Luis, St. John’s leading scorer at 17.4 points per game who lives in the midrange. Alex Karaban has made strides defensively but will still be hunted. If he holds up well, UConn is in business.

There may be more threes in college than ever before, but Pitino is stuck in 2010. Only 26.7% of St. John’s conference shot attempts are from three. On paper, great news for the Huskies considering their abysmal and potentially unlucky 3-point defense that ranks 331st in the country. And with a two-point defense ranking eighth in the country and McNeeley back, the strengths favor UConn, if — and this is a huge if — they can keep the Johnnies off the glass.

Board Men

St. John’s grabbed 21 offensive rebounds against Marquette. They’ve had seven games this year with an offensive rebounding margin of 45% or more, and their season-long rate is 12th in the country. Zuby Ejiofor does most of that damage, the 6-foot-9, 240 pound junior thriving in the spotlight after two years as a reserve. He’s fresh off a 13-point, 13-rebound effort versus Marquette and has emerged as one of the best two-way bigs in the Big East.

Luis is also a load on the glass and averages nearly seven rebounds per game. What he lacks in shooting polish he makes up for with elite athleticism and a disruptive motor. North Texas transfer Aaron Scott is an elite role player with a nose for the ball.

Oh my god, that’s Tarris Reed Jr.’s music! This game is begging for a Kodiak Bear masterclass, where Reed’s strength and rebounding chops can help limit St. John’s second-chance opportunities. Getting McNeeley back, who is second on the team with nearly six rebounds per game, is again perfect timing, as is Ball’s suddenly elite rebounding chops (eight per game in the last four.) Samson Johnson is hooping right now and shined last year against the Johnnies with Clingan out, so the hope is UConn’s frontcourt is ready for the challenge.

Muck it up

UConn’s offense, predicated on ball movement and spacing, is objectively pretty. It looks pedestrian when a defense is overly physical or top-locking. St. John’s is going to push the referee’s boundaries of physicality tomorrow, and while Pitino doesn’t run a heavy switching scheme, he’s wily enough to throw different looks out there.

With lightning bug Deivon Smith moved to sixth man duty, a lineup of Simeon Wilcher-Richmond-Luis-Scott-Ejiofor is insanely long, switchy and athletic. Passing lanes and space are going to be at a premium. UConn’s 25 turnovers against Marquette will need cleaning up, as St. John;s defensive turnover percentage ranks 19th in the country. It’s another way St. John’s steals extra possessions to make up for their janky offense.

If UConn’s sets stall out, who can put their head down, attack the rim and relieve the pressure? The Huskies showed glimpses of this against Xavier last month — with threes not falling, they attacked the rim in the second half.

This is another spot where having McNeeley back is a godsend, as the freshman showed an uncanny ability to draw contact if a set was blown up before his injury. Now, the defenses won’t be as keyed in on Karaban, who has shown to be lethal when not facing double teams or someone’s best defender. Maybe this is the classic Karaban 4-8 from three game that gets the captain unlocked.

On defense, UConn is fresh off its best performance of the season. Smith is one of the best straight-line drivers in the country, and we know what Richmond and Luis can do to defenders 1-on-1. If Pitino clears out and has his guys take turns cooking, UConn could be in trouble.

Win the crowd

Hurley told reporters yesterday he wanted his players to watch Gladiator to prep for battle tomorrow. One of the famous lines from the Ridley Scott classic was— “win the crowd, win your freedom.” If UConn shows the toughness and physicality needed to match St. John’s, then the crowd — an unruly Roman mob flying high on $2 Miller killers — may turn the tide. And the last time the Huskies welcomed a top-15 team and one of their best players back from injury, they decimated a shellshocked Creighton team and had Donovan Clingan singing Taylor Swift on the bench. Win the crowd, win the game.