The Huskies have one more tune-up before the Maui Invitational.
No. 2 UConn men’s basketball has one more tune-up before three games against top competition Thanksgiving week at the Maui Invitational. The Huskies, which moved up one spot in this week’s AP poll, will welcome in East Texas A&M, which is opening its season with four KenPom top-50 opponents in its first six games. This isn’t the only time the Lions will head north, as they will head to the North Shore of Massachusetts and face off against Stonehill on Nov. 25.
TV: FS1
Radio: UConn Sports Network
Odds: UConn -37, over/under 146.5
Location: Gampel Pavilion
KenPom Predicted Score: UConn 89, East Texas A&M 54 (99.9 percent win probability)
Series History
East Texas A&M, which changed its name from Texas A&M- Commerce on Nov. 7, has never appeared on the Huskies’ schedule. The Lions are in their third year of Division I play and have a full Division I schedule for the first time. Previously, they were in the Lone Star Conference and are the final of the five charter members (North Texas, Sam Houston State, Texas State and Stephen F. Austin) to move up from Division II.
What To Watch For
The defense will feast
UConn’s active and stingy defense will likely get another confidence boost before heading to paradise. The Huskies have an adjusted defensive efficiency of 92.3 at KenPom, which is No. 7 in the nation and are in or near the top 100 in nearly every category. Meanwhile, East Texas A&M has a 92.9 adjusted offensive efficiency rating at KenPom, which is No. 357. The Lions are sub-300 in nearly every category, save for 2-point percentage, as they’re in the top 100 at 56.1 percent.
Even with that relative strength, UConn is likely to keep them in check. The Lions are among the 60 shortest teams in the nation, while UConn is among the 60 tallest. The visitors will have three players at 6-foot-8 and no one taller, giving Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed Jr. a size advantage down low. Similarly, the wings will be able to outsize their opponents.
East Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the 3-pointer well (30.0 percent), turns the ball over a bunch (24.8 percent), doesn’t get to the line at a high rate (25.9 percent) and doesn’t hit its free throws (61.7 percent). It’s possible that the Lions have the worst offense UConn will face all season, which has allowed no more than 0.78 points per possession this season. It could be a turnover fest, with tons of easy baskets for the Huskies.
Key in on the boards
UConn is among the best rebounding teams in the country, at sixth in both offensive rebound rate (42.9 percent) and defensive rebound rate (83.2 percent). Reed Jr. is an exceptional rebounder, at sixth in the country in offensive rebound rate and 28th in defensive rebound rate, while Alex Karaban also controls the boards.
This is a weakness for East Texas A&M. Opposing offenses grab 37.5 percent of their misses, which is among the 50-worst rates in Division I, while the Lions snag just 26.3 percent of their own. The nationwide average is 30.0 percent this year.
The Huskies should have plenty of chances for second-chance points and to extend possessions, while East Texas A&M will struggle to do the same. This is another way UConn can get out in front in a hurry.
Stay healthy
This is a big mismatch. Le Moyne, New Hampshire and Sacred Heart, all took and hit 3-pointers at a high rate, which means if they got hot, they could (and did) keep up for a while. East Texas A&M, on the other hand, doesn’t have that kind of a strength.
This game has the possibility to get out of hand fast. With the real meat of the non-conference schedule starting on Monday with the Maui Invitational and Memphis looming, it’s important to ensure everyone gets out of this game healthy. After Tuesday, there’s just one sub-125 game remaining, four of which are outside the KenPom top 100. No need for an injury that could derail the season.