The Huskies look to beat Marquette for the fourth-straight time.
No. 25 UConn men’s basketball (15-6, 7-3 Big East) moves into the back half of the conference schedule on Saturday night and will have a big test as No. 10 Marquette (18-3, 9-1 Big East) will welcome the Huskies into Milwaukee. Shaka Smart’s Golden Eagles lost their first home game of the season two weeks ago against Xavier, snapping a 10-game run that ran back to Senior Day last season, when UConn went into Fiserv Forum and took a seven-point win.
The Huskies have won three-straight against Marquette after sweeping the regular season series and then blowing the Golden Eagles away in the Big East Tournament championship game, but face an uphill battle toward running that to four. Bench piece Ahmad Nowell will be out as he nurses an ankle injury, while Hassan Diarra has been hobbled and hasn’t been practicing, but will play. Liam McNeeley is going to be a game-time decision and Alex Karaban is battling through an ankle injury of his own.
TV: FOX
Radio: UConn Sports Network
Odds: Marquette -7, over/under 143.5
Location: Fiserv Forum — Milwaukee, Wisconsin
KenPom Predicted Score: Marquette 77, UConn 69 (23 percent win probability)
Series History
UConn and Marquette faced off for the first time on January 3, 2006 as part of the Golden Eagles’ first season in the Big East. The then-No. 2 Huskies were dealt a 15-point defeat. Overall, UConn is 11-8, including a split in their only meetings in the Big East Tournament. Each of those came in the past two events. Since re-joining the Big East, the Huskies are 8-2.
What to Watch For
What to do with Kam Jones?
Kam Jones is fifth in the KenPom Player of the Year standings as one of two Big East players on the list, along with RJ Luis of St. John’s. He’s the straw that stirs the drink offensively for the Golden Eagles, handling the ball a ton, playing heavy minutes and taking a bunch of shots. He plays 33 minutes per game and averages 18.9 points and 6.3 assists per night. Each of those pace Marquette, with no other player averaging more than 2.5 helpers per game.
His rate stats are also impressive, with a 40.3 percent assist rate that’s ninth in the nation, while he’s just outside the top 250 in turnover rate and the top 200 in offensive rating.
Jones’ size also brings a problem, as he’s 6-foot-5, 205 pounds. Hassan Diarra, at less than 100 percent, will be at a size disadvantage, while UConn’s backcourt depth is already thin. He is a unique player that can score at all three levels and the Huskies will need to ensure Jones doesn’t beat them.
Defend, defend, defend
Marquette makes teams defend and doesn’t make mistakes to give opposing defenses momentum. The Golden Eagles turn the ball over just 12.9 percent of the time, which is the country’s lowest rate, while a 7.7 percent block rate is just outside the top 50. This makes offense harder, since there are fewer opportunities to get out in transition and score easy baskets.
The Huskies do not force a ton of turnovers, at 16.9 percent (No. 222), but do rely heavily on blocked shots, led by Tarris Reed Jr. UConn gets blocks 18.7 percent of the time, leading the nation. If Dan Hurley’s team wants to pull off the upset, Reed and Alex Karaban, who also is a decent shotblocker, will need to alter and force contested shots.
Move the ball
UConn’s biggest offensive strength is one of Marquette’s biggest defensive weaknesses, which could make for offensive fireworks. The Huskies’ offensive sets help create a bunch of open looks and everyone is capable of making the extra pass to the open man for a better shot. They’re second in the country in assist rate, as 66.8 percent of their field goals come on helpers. Defensively, Marquette allows 61.9 percent of their field goals against to come on assists, a mark that’s in the bottom 15.
The Huskies’ ball movement has a chance to keep them in a road game in front of a hostile crowd and will be one of their biggest assets.