The Huskies will have to take on the Bears without Alex Karaban.
After bouncing back from a rough stint at the Maui Invitational with a resounding win over lowly UMES, the UConn men’s basketball team has a chance to pick up its first marquee win of the season against the No. 15 Baylor Bears. The Huskies’ matchup with Baylor as part of the Big East-Big 12 Battle marks the beginning of a tough stretch of non conference games for UConn, as the Huskies take on the Bears, Texas on the road and No. 7 Gonzaga at Madison Square Garden over the course of the next 10 days.
TV: Fox Sports 1
Radio: UConn Sports Network
Odds: UConn -2.5, over/under 144.5
Location: Gampel Pavilion – Storrs, Connecticut
KenPom Predicted Score: UConn 76, Baylor 73 (62% percent win probability)
Series History
UConn and Baylor have only played once before with the Huskies taking a 96-88 victory on the road in 1965. The Huskies are 1-2 all time in the Big East-Big 12 Battle.
What to Watch For
Filling the Karaban Void
UConn will be without Alex Karaban for a second-straight game after the redshirt junior was got hurt late in the team’s final game in the Maui Invitational. The Huskies’ star forward injured his head late in the loss to Dayton and did not play against UMES, and was officially ruled out by Hurley for this game on Tuesday.
Karaban leads UConn in points (15.9 points per game) and 3-point shooting, so the rest of the team will have to step up in a way to help fill his massive shoes. Solo Ball and Liam McNeely have both shown flashes of being able to take over games on the offensive end, but haven’t quite put it all together in any one game thus far. Look for McNeeley to be more aggressive hunting his shot as he did against UMES (16 points, 4-12 FG) after going scoreless (0-9 FG) in the loss to Dayton. McNeely has a unique size advantage over the smaller Baylor guards which may be a crutch defensively, but must use that to his advtange on the offensive end with Karaban out.
It will also be interesting to see how the coaching staff accounts for the absence of their offensive star. Not many adjustments needed to be made against UMES because of how drastic the talent gap was, but against Baylor there will need to be more of a targeted game plan. Does Hurley try to run more for Ball/McNeely, or maybe try to isolate Stewart if Baylor goes to a smaller lineup as they so often do? How do the point guard duties get divvied up and where do they turn to depending on who is running the show?
Containing the dribble drives
The Huskies could not keep opposing guards in front of them if their lives depended on it in Maui, which led to a minus-50 free throw attempt differential over the three games played. It was utter embarrassment for a Dan Hurley-led squad, one that usually prides themselves on being a mentally tough defensive team regardless of all of the offensive success the past two seasons.
Over the past decade-plus, Scott Drew has built this Baylor program into one that lives and dies by its guard play, and this year is no different. Outside of their one-man wrecking crew down low in Norchad Omier, Baylor’s next five leading scorers are in the backcourt, and that’s not even counting Langston Love, who started off the year hurt and is now finally getting back to his normal allotment of minutes (11 points per game last season. The Bears have a plethora of lightning quick guards led by Duke transfer Jeremy Roach that can blow by just about anyone. Hassan Diarra, Aidan Mahaney, Jayden Ross and the aforementioned Ball will have their hands full, and will need to try to keep the guards out of the lane as much as possible without fouling.
Bodies, Bodies, Bodies
Omier is one of the most physically imposing big men in college basketball. The senior from Nicaragua has averaged a double-double in all five seasons he has played and has been a force down-low for the Bears this year. It’s not a matter of if Samson Johnson will get into foul trouble, it’s when, and the when is likely very early in this game.
Tarris Reed is a much better matchup for Omier physically anyway, and it would be nice to see him start over Johnson in this matchup. Regardless of if he starts or not, Reed’s ability to stay on the court could very well decide the outcome of the game. Reed won’t be relied upon to completely contain Omier because that is close to impossible, but will try to prevent Omier from eating up the offensive glass.
A balanced matchup
Overall, these are two eerily similar teams with almost an equally similar path to this point. Both are top-10 in offensive efficiency but are outside the top-75 in defensive efficiency. Baylor has been much better at shooting the three than UConn, but is ironically one of the worst teams in Division I at defending it (No. 331). This could open up some opportunities for someone like Aidan Mahaney to prove he belongs. The bottom line is that both teams need this win very badly, so nothing will come easy, even if the metrics point to that being the case.