The Huskies will play the Dolphins for the first time on Wednesday.
No. 3 UConn men’s basketball returns to Gampel Pavilion on Wednesday night, as the Huskies welcome Le Moyne to Hartford. The Dolphins are 1-2 after putting a scare into Syracuse on opening night, taking the Orange down to the wire, never trailing by more than 12 in a four-point defeat, followed by a loss to Cal State Northridge and a big victory over SUNY Polytechnic Institute.
TV: FS1
Radio: UConn Sports Network
Odds: UConn -38, over/under 150
Location: XL Center
KenPom Predicted Score: UConn 91, Le Moyne 58 (99.8 percent win probability)
Series History
Le Moyne is the 304th team that will appear on UConn’s schedule in program history and the Dolphins are one of two programs, along with Texas A&M Commerce (which recently changed its name to East Texas A&M) to play the Huskies for the first time this season. Le Moyne is in just its second year of Division I competition, following a long run in the Northeast-10 at the Division II level.
What To Watch For
Le Moyne plays like a Giant Killer
At ESPN, the term “Giant Killer” refers to an 11-seed or greater that has a chance to pull the upset and move on to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. These teams often take a ton of 3-pointers (and make them), force turnovers and get to the free-throw line at a high rate with a good percentage. The tempo of these games is also frequently on the slow side, which increases variance.
Le Moyne is elite at getting to the line in the early going, at No. 20 in free-throw rate at KenPom.com, which measures free-throw attempts as a share of field goal attempts, and is just outside the top 100 in free-throw percentage. Similarly, 55.5 percent of the Dolphins’ field goal attempts are 3-pointers, which is No. 12 in the nation, with an average make rate (32.8 percent). They’re also just below the average nationally in steal percentage and rank No. 191 in Division I.
This isn’t to say that UConn’s 15-game winning streak will go down against a team that’s played 35 games as a Division I school, four of which have been against non-Division I opponents. Those rates surely could be a result of small sample size and there are plenty of indicators that show the Huskies’ intense superiority.
Only one player that averages more than 10 minutes per night is taller than 6-foot-5, though there are two more reserves at 6-foot-8 and 6-foot-9. This leads to a paltry 1.1 percent block rate that’s just outside the bottom 10, while the Dolphins are sub-300 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which take into consideration preseason projections, while none of the rate stats do.
The difference in size will create an intense mismatch on the boards and make Le Moyne reliant on the 3-pointer, while even if Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed Jr. struggle with fouls, a combination of Alex Karaban, Jayden Ross and Jaylin Strewart will have no issue filling in at the five-spot.
While it’s highly unlikely that Le Moyne does anything more than put a bit of a scare into UConn if it starts hot from beyond the arc, the Huskies’ size and athleticism should more than win out, though the halftime scoreline may look a bit tighter than head coach Dan Hurley might want.
Keep fouls in check
Samson Johnson (6-foot-10, 225 pounds) and Tarris Reed Jr. (6-foot-10, 260 pounds) have had the benefit of being significantly larger than their opponents through two games this year. Sacred Heart had players taller than 6-foot-6 play a total of 25 minutes, 21 of which were by Raymond Espinal-Guzman (6-foot-8, 220 pounds). While New Hampshire is bigger, with 6-foot-11 Caleb Middleton getting 12 minutes in addition to two starters at 6-foot-8 or taller, these programs still feature smaller rotations than high-major foes will.
Johnson has committed nine fouls in just 27 minutes this year. While Reed has been slightly better at five whistles in 44 minutes, those rates are still exceptionally high. Hurley has been able to shuffle them around to take up all but nine minutes at center this year, which has limited the true five-out lineup since there hasn’t been a need for starters late in games.
However, there’s just one more warm-up game after this one before UConn heads to Hawaii and faces Memphis in the Maui Invitational. The Tigers are hardly a model program, but are a top-40 KenPom team, representing a big step up from the bottom-40 competition that the Huskies have faced and will face. Johnson and Reed will want to get the calls in check before the talent level jumps.