The Huskies are back on Villanova’s campus for the second time in nearly 30 years.
No. 9 UConn men’s basketball is back in the top 10 for the first time since November, as the Huskies have won eight consecutive games since returning from the Maui Invitational. Dan Hurley’s squad puts the country’s fourth-longest win streak on the line against an Eric Dixon-led Villanova squad that has performed well against the bottom of the Big East thus far.
The Wildcats are 3-1 in Big East play, but those victories come against three of the conference’s bottom four teams in KenPom in Butler, DePaul and Seton Hall. Two of those games also came at home, as has their best win, which was against Cincinnati in early December.
TV: FS1
Radio: UConn Sports Network
Odds: Villanova -1, over/under 146.5
Location: Finneran Pavilion- Villanova, PA
KenPom Predicted Score: Villanova 78, UConn 77 (46 percent win probability)
Series History
This is the 76th time UConn and Villanova will go at it. The Wildcats have the slight edge, at 39-36, since the first contest in the 1940-41 season. The Huskies have won four straight and five of six, but that one loss came in the 2023 Big East Tournament semifinal. That has somewhat erased a six-of-seven streak for Villanova between the end of the old Big East, a few nonconference battles and UConn’s return to the conference.
The Huskies are 5-7 inside the venue for Wednesday’s game, Finneran Pavilion. Aside from the 2020-21 season, when all games were played on campus due to the COVID-19 pandemic, UConn hasn’t made the trip to campus since the 1995-96 season for a top-five battle that the Huskies won by double digits.
What to Watch For
Who handles Eric Dixon?
It’s Tarris Reed Jr.’s time to shine. The Michigan transfer was nails on Sunday against Providence. He had 10 points and five rebounds in 19 minutes of play, contributing three blocks and committing just one personal foul. Reed Jr. made a ton of plays to help UConn battle back from a double-digit deficit in the second half and then stymie the Friars’ comeback before they completed it.
His size will be needed against the strong Eric Dixon, who has led Villanova this year and is ninth in KenPom’s player of the year rankings. His 32.6 percent usage rating is No. 14 in the country and he’s taken 35.6 percent of the Wildcats’ shots, which is No. 12 nationally. He also owns the country’s 34th-highest offensive rating (135.7) and is No. 22 in 3-point percentage (49.0 percent). All of these complement impressive counting stats of 25.9 points and 5.4 points per game.
Dixon is listed at 6-foot-8, 265 pounds. Reed Jr., at 260 pounds, is the only rotation player above 225. His platoon partner at center in Samson Johnson is listed at 225 pounds, while Alex Karaban is also giving up 40 pounds to Dixon. He’ll be a challenge to contain, particularly as he’s a threat to space the floor and isn’t just a back to the basket type of player.
Which defense prevails?
Both teams’ offense are way ahead of the defenses at this point in time, which means the squad that can get a couple of stops at key points will have a big advantage, when the opposite is often the case when these teams pair up.
UConn’s defense is ranked more highly at KenPom, with a 104.2 adjusted efficiency rating that’s No. 134 in the nation, compared with Villanova’s 106.3 rating, which is good for No. 178. In contrast, both offenses are in the top 10.
The Huskies are propped up by an elite interior, with an 18.3 block percentage that’s No. 4 in the country led by Karaban, Reed and Samson Johnson. Each are in the top 150 individually. Aside from that trio, UConn has a 44.1 2-point percentage against, which is No. 15 in Division I, while it’s top-50 in rebound percentage.
As for Kyle Neptune’s Wildcats, its strengths are also 2-point percentage and rebound percentage, but the Wildcats are down near the back end of the top 100, rather than the top 50. Teams also are weak free-throw shooters against them, since the 66.9 percent their opponents shoot is the 23rd-lowest rate in the country. However, this is not reliant on anything Villanova does.
Both teams are among the 70 slowest in the country, with the Wildcats in the top 20, which means the game is going to be decided in the half court. The defense that proves to be more effective will have the upper hand, since the offenses will likely have their way for most of the evening.
Watch the shooters
Villanova is an exceptional 3-point shooting team. The Wildcats shoot 41.5 percent as a whole, which is No. 2 in Division I. The aforementioned Dixon is at 49 percent, but he isn’t even the team’s leader. That honor belongs to Jhamir Brickus, who is No. 11 at 50.8 percent. They’re joined by three others above 32 percent, with the rest of the team taking a combined 27 triples.
Despite this lethality from beyond the arc, Villanova isn’t overly reliant on the 3-ball. Just under 45 percent of its field goal attempts are 3-pointers, which is No. 66 in the country. This is good news for UConn, since the Huskies are elite at chasing shooters off the 3-point line. Their opponents take 3-pointers just 31 percent of the time, which is No. 6 in the nation. However, this small sample size has led them to shoot 37.8 percent from deep. That mark is just outside the bottom 30.
Most of the time, Villanova plays with four of their five shooters on the floor at a time, which gives it good spacing opportunities, particularly when it’s Dixon on the floor at center. If the Wildcats can take and make 3-pointers at a high rate, they’re going to make it hard for UConn to keep up.