Can the Huskies get right against Villanova?
Saturday afternoon was one of the uglier games that UConn men’s basketball has played in recent memory, undoing the progress of the team’s first win of the week on the road against Creighton with a brutal performance in a loss to Seton Hall. The Huskies were just 10-for-24 on layups and committed 16 turnovers, permitting Seton Hall to hang around and make late comebacks both at the end of regulation and overtime.
UConn will try and get back in the win column against Villanova, which has come on as of late, beating Xavier and St. John’s at home earlier in February, but fell by double digits to Providence on the road on Saturday.
The Wildcats took the victory at Finneran Pavilion earlier this season and are going for their first conference sweep of UConn since 2000-01.
TV: FS1
Radio: UConn Sports Network
Odds: UConn -8.5, over/under 139.5
Location: XL Center — Hartford, Connecticut
KenPom Predicted Score: UConn 75, Villanova 69 (71 percent win probability)
Series History
UConn is 36-40 all-time against Villanova in a series that stretches back to 1940-41, though all but four meetings came after the creation of the Big East. The teams are extremely evenly matched, including a 3-4 postseason record for the Huskies, but each team has gone on stretches of dominance. Right now, it’s UConn, which swept the series the past two seasons, snapping a 1-6 streak that stretched back to the start of the trio of nonconference meetings that started in the 2017-18 season, the final of which included the now-famous “you better get us now” sound byte.
What to Watch For
Contain Eric Dixon
Eric Dixon is the straw that stirs the drink for Villanova. He’s no longer a national player of the year candidate, but he’s in the top 25 in usage rating, No. 15 in percentage of shots taken and despite his volume nature, is a threat from outside, with a 42.1 percent shooting percentage on 3-pointers that’s just outside the nation’s top 100. He’s been in double digits every game and eclipsed 20 points more often than not, with three 30-point games. Dixon leads the country at 23.2 points per game and will once again be a massive test for the Huskies’ defense.
He was held mostly in check against UConn in January, shooting just 6-for-20, but was a perfect 9-for-9 from the free-throw line, resulting in 23 points. He was also held to just one rebound against a 5.3 average per game. Jaylin Stewart was the primary defender on the 6-foot-8 forward and did an effective job, as his 106 offensive rating at KenPom was his lowest of the season to that point and his second-lowest in a Villanova victory.
Last game came down to a fluke at the whistle. Hold Dixon down again and it could be a different story for the Huskies.
Is Alex Karaban back?
The redshirt junior forward had a tough finish to the first Villanova game, missing an open 3-pointer, getting a shot blocked and missing a pair of free-throws in the final 30 seconds of a two-point loss. He had a standout contest the next time out against Georgetown, including a 4-for-6 performance beyond the arc, but in the ensuing seven games, he was 4-for-37 (10.8 percent), spanning nearly a month. It was a cold stretch that passed to 2-pointers, with a 22-for-47 (46.8 percent) rate that’s well below his career average that’s pushing 60 percent. Most worrying was the 2-for-28 performance on 3-pointers over the final five contests of that stretch.
While it was hardly a Mona Lisa of an afternoon on Saturday, Karaban was 5-for-7 on 2-pointers, knocked down a pair of triples and broke 20 points for the first time since late December.
The 3-pointers in particular are encouraging. A 2-for-7 day is nothing to write home about, but when he was 0-for-5 or worse in three of his last four and hadn’t made more than one deep shot since Jan. 21, baby steps are ok.
UConn needs him back. Including that Villanova game, the Huskies are 5-5 and each defeat came by six points or less, including one in which he took six shots and scored three points. The Wildcats allow opposing teams to shoot 34.7 percent on 3-pointers, which is No. 232 in the country. Karaban is going to be the key to success in March and this is a good opportunity to build on Saturday’s progress as far as getting his shot back.
Battle of the 3-pointers
Both teams are fairly similar. They have crawling tempos, strong offenses that make 3-pointers at a high rate and take them a similar amount, as well as comparatively weaker defenses that have difficulty defending outside.
Villanova is No. 4 in 3-point percentage nationally at 37.9 percent, while 43.3 percent of their field goal attempts are triples (No. 84). Defensively, the Wildcats allow the opposition to shoot 34.7 percent beyond the arc, which is No. 232 in the country.
As for UConn, it’s No. 80 in offensive percentage (35.8 percent) and take them 43.8 percent of the time (No. 73). The opposition converts on its 3-pointers 35.7 percent of the time (No. 284).
Where they diverge is the rate at which opposing offenses shoot from outside. UConn is exceptional at running teams off the line, as just 32.9 percent of opposing field goal attempts are 3-pointers, which is No. 16 in the country. Meanwhile, Villanova is 16th-worst in this stat (46.8 percent).
UConn was 10-for-27 (37.0 percent) from beyond the arc in the first meeting, taking 3-pointers more than half the time, while Villanova was 8-for-20 (40.0 percent) and took triples just 36.3 percent of the time.