Will the Huskies win it all in Paige Bueckers’ final ride?
The 40th season of Geno Auriemma and Chris Dailey’s tenure and the final year of Paige Bueckers’ collegiate career begins on Thursday when UConn women’s basketball welcomes Boston University to the XL Center.
It’s been a difficult half-decade for the Huskies, from the struggles of the 2019-20 campaign to the Covid season followed by three straight years of injuries. Despite that, UConn is coming off a trip to the Final Four and has a roster with no shortage of talent across the board. While that comes with plenty of uncertainty, there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic, too.
On the eve of a new season, our women’s basketball staff — myself, Megan Gauer, Ian Bethune and Dan Madigan — try to predict how it’ll all unfold for the Huskies.
Is Paige Bueckers really going to be more assertive?
Daniel Connolly: Prior to Sunday’s exhibition, I would’ve said no. But it’s hard to deny the way she performed against Fort Hays State with 27 points on 12-14 shooting. If Bueckers plays like that every single night, she’s going to have a historic season — and UConn will be feeling pretty good about its chances come April.
Ian Bethune: Bueckers wants to win in her final season so I expect she’ll be a little more dominant this year. If she can stay healthy (knock on wood), she should easily be able to put up 20 points a game. With the depth UConn has shooting-wise when they’re healthy, she may not need to score as much — or that frees her up to shoot even more. Either way, I can see Bueckers demanding the ball more. Don’t forget, she played all over the floor last year, including time at power forward. She’s averaging 19.7 points per game in her career and could easily hit the 20-point mark again (20.0 in her freshman season and 21.9 last year).
Dan Madigan: Personally, I would like to see it. With Caitlin Clark now gone, Bueckers is biggest brand in the sport and one of the top players in the country. I would love to see her call her own number a little bit more and assert her dominance once again. Even though she is talented as a distributor, UConn is better off when takes the majority of the shots and serves as the focal point of the offense.
Megan Gauer: Like Daniel, I was a bit skeptical prior to Sunday’s exhibition. However, Bueckers flipping the switch so quickly in a low stakes game makes me think she will actually be more assertive this season. As we saw on Sunday, this team is also going to have some growing pains while it figures things out and it’ll will need Bueckers to fill in the gaps.
Leading scorer (not named Paige Bueckers)
Connolly: Kaitlyn Chen is a safe bet. She’s an established player after three stellar seasons at Princeton and should be a reliable sidekick to Bueckers. However, UConn will be better off if the answer ends up being Azzi Fudd.
Ian Bethune: There’s a lot of right answers here but I think that if Auriemma can establish Jana El Alfy down low and she can stay out of foul trouble, she could easily put up 15 points and 10 rebounds a night. There are maybe one or two teams in the Big East who could slow her down. It’ll be the big games on the schedule that determine if she can be a top scorer.
Madigan: I think it has to be Fudd. If (and that’s a huge if) she can get healthy and stay healthy, Fudd and Bueckers will finally get some extended time on court together and terrorize opponents as arguably the best backcourt in the country.
Gauer: Everyone wants the answer here to be Fudd, but she’s already coming back from a major injury and has had trouble staying healthy. I think the more likely answer is Chen. As we already saw some on Sunday, Chen’s experience at Princeton is going to lend itself well to her being a consistent second option next to Bueckers.
Breakout returner
Connolly: Watch out for Aubrey Griffin in March. Although she’s pretty established as the only sixth-year player in program history, Griffin was playing the best basketball of her career before going down with a torn ACL last January. If she can regain that form when she returns sometime around the new year, she could be the type of piece that pushes UConn over the top.
Ian Bethune: If we are counting the injured players, then it would be Fudd for sure. We all know what she can do but she hasn’t done it for a full season. And while she’ll return after the new year kicks off, I would still expect her to put up some good numbers.
Madigan: I was so impressed with KK Arnold’s poise and energy as a freshman last season. I loved her ability to get into passing lanes on the defensive end and how comfortable she looked on offense. Even with a more crowded backcourt this year, I think she will make a leap.
Gauer: I’m going to go with Ayanna Patterson here. There’s a lot of opportunity in a young frontcourt for someone to breakthrough. I don’t think Patterson is going to come out and start putting up 20 points a game for the Huskies, but I think her ability to come in off the bench and instantly impact the game on the glass and on the defensive end is going to be invaluable for the Huskies.
Best newcomer
Connolly: Sarah Strong and it’s not close. Auriemma said she’s “probably as impressive as any freshman that we’ve had in a long, long time” and later added that he expects her to “significantly change the trajectory of our program.” The other newcomers will be good, but it’s hard to compete with that.
Ian Bethune: While this could be any of the freshmen class or even Chen, my money is on El Alfy. Everything we’ve heard about her — from Auriemma to Bueckers — I expect her to be a mean presence down in the paint. If she establishes herself on the defensive end, the sky’s the limit with how UConn can guard opponents up top.
Madigan: I’m with Ian on El Alfy. Prior to her injury, the clips from her time with the Egyptian national team were insane. Her size will add a new dimension to this team on both ends, and I’m excited to see what she can do — she seems like the prototypical modern post player.
Gauer: My gut here also says El Alfy since she offers a size and physicality UConn hasn’t had in a while. That said, she’s coming off a major injury and has never played a college basketball game. For that reason I think Chen might be the most immediate answer here. She brings the experience as a fifth year player that UConn can’t manufacture anywhere else. The maturity that comes with that could be huge for the Huskies in big moments — as early as the road trip to North Carolina, or certainly in their tough stretch in December.
Most common starting lineup
Connolly: Bueckers is a fixture in the starting lineup and Chen probably isn’t far behind. From there, Fudd, Strong and Ice Brady is my guess for what the Huskies deploy most often once everyone is healthy. I think Brady gets the nod over El Alfy given her edge in experience.
Ian Bethune: I think once Fudd returns and gets a game or two under her belt, she’ll establish herself in the starting lineup. My best guess would be Bueckers, Chen, Fudd, Strong and El Alfy. Before Fudd returns, I’d say Bueckers, Chen, Arnold, Strong and El Alfy.
Madigan: No disagreements here. I could see Brady getting some starts early until Strong gets her feet under her. Being a freshman under Auriemma is hard and sometimes it takes time, even for someone of Strong’s caliber.
Gauer: I agree with both Ian and Madigan here. I think it’s Bueckers, Chen, Fudd, Strong and El Alfy. I think particularly in the frontcourt we’ll see some rotation between El Alfy and Brady in the fifth spot, but once El Alfy gets her feet under her, I expect her to be the preferred starter.
Best game
Connolly: USC. That game might bring the roof down in Hartford (again).
Ian Bethune: I think there’s only one correct answer here, the USC game at XL Center on December 21st. It should be a matchup of top-five teams and obviously two of the best women’s college basketball players in the country in Bueckers and JuJu Watkins.
Madigan: I’ll go with the road game at Notre Dame on Dec. 12. Aside from Bueckers versus Watkins, watching Bueckers go head-to-head against Hannah Hidalgo could be one of the best 1-on-1 matchups of the year — especially after Hidalgo torched the Huskies for 34 last year at Gampel. Must watch TV.
Gauer: I am personally most excited for the USC game, but do think the South Carolina game will be the most important one we see this team play. The February timeline should offer the chance to see a full healthy UConn squad including Griffin (knock on wood) against a top tier opponent. It’s going to be the Huskies’ best national measuring stick and a very welcome change from the monotony of Big East play.
Does UConn win it all?
Connolly: I think they do simply because the basketball gods owe them. Injuries have cost UConn at least one, if not multiple national championships over the last three years. Bueckers hasn’t had a fair shot to win one since her freshman year. Given all the Huskies have been through, there has to be a light at the end of the tunnel. There has to be.
Ian Bethune: If they don’t, does that mean Bueckers would use her last year of eligibility and come back for another shot? Women’s college basketball isn’t like the olden days when UConn used to dominate. There’s more parity in the game due to the increased talent coming out of the high school ranks as well as overseas. That being said, if they can stay healthy, they have a real shot at winning the title and with a healthy Bueckers, they could be holding that trophy in Tampa.
Madigan: Bueckers has done everything there is do as one of the truly best ever to put on a UConn uniform except cut down the nets at the end of year. She has battled through injuries, been a trailblazer as a major of the NIL era, and racked up plenty of personal accolades. But at the end of the day, she came to UConn to win titles, and I truly believe a more assertive Bueckers can get them there. I think Bueckers leads UConn to title No. 12 before heading off to the WNBA.
Gauer: I don’t think Bueckers’ time at UConn ends without a national title, so yes. This team won’t look like a juggernaut in November, but come March they have all the pieces to win it all. As Ian said, there’s a lot more parity but after the last few seasons, the Huskies are due for a little luck.