Last week, NFL insider Ian Rapoport reported that the Tennessee Titans would be open to trading the first overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft and they should expect to receive calls from around the league. The quarterback-needy Giants are certainly one of the teams that could inquire about a possible trade. They already have been extensively linked to both top quarterback prospects Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders. It’s possible they could want to ensure that they can target either of them. From where they sit right now, it’s no guarantee that either player falls to them. Trading up to the first pick is costly, risky and could cost the Giants brass their jobs if their coveted franchise quarterback doesn’t pan out. What would it cost the Giants to trade from number three to number one in this year’s draft?
Draft Pick Value Chart Assessment
There are several non-quantifiable factors that can determine a draft package such as leverage, desperation, trade-partner relationships, and market dynamics. However, the Rich Hill chart provides fans a baseline idea for what it takes to move up and down the draft board. It’s simple to follow. Each pick is assigned a point value and the buyer needs to send a package that closely equates to the seller’s value.
According to the model, the Giants have approximately 832 total points in this year’s draft. 514 of them are from the third overall pick. They’re considerably short of the first overall pick that’s valued at 1,000 points on its own. In total, the Titans have 1263 points.
In order for the Giants to move up, their package will likely have to include either a player or a pick from next year’s draft, too. It’s more difficult to determine the value of players versus draft assets, so this exercise will focus only on draft capital used in a hypothetical trade.
Trade Package #1
After a few calculations that the computer disagreed with, the simulated trade that went through on the NFL Mock Draft Database was quite the haul for the Titans. For the Giants to jump just two spots to the first pick they would need to give up the third pick, their second-round pick, and their first-round pick in next year’s draft. In total, the Giants gave up 1069 points on the Rich Hill model and the Titans gave up 1024. The only way for the trade to be a win for the Giants is if the player they select becomes an unquestioned franchise quarterback. This particular scenario screams desperation from Joe Schoen and the Giants’ brass. If this were to happen, Giants fans should be nervous. (Unless, again, they get a franchise quarterback out of the deal).
Trade Package #2
The second simulated scenario that the Titans accepted is more pleasing for Giants fans. They only gave up the third overall pick, their third-round pick, and next year’s second-round pick. In this scenario, the Giants retain their first-round pick next year in order to fill out their roster with an ascending young quarterback or to throw another dart at the quarterback board. If this were to come to fruition, the Giants would give up just 764 points.
Trade Package #4
The third trade package that the Titans accepted was similar to the first one. Pundits, fans, and analysts would likely ridicule the Giants if this one were to come to fruition. In this scenario, the Giants gave up the third overall pick, the 34th pick, their first seventh pick, and next year’s third-round pick in exchange for the first overall pick and the Titans fifth-rounder. It was a haul similar to the first scenario and one that should scare fans away. Joe Schoen claimed he wouldn’t make any moves out of job preservation and this hypothetical deal would put that claim to the test.
Final Thoughts
The purpose of this exercise was to simply see how many assets the Giants would need to give up to secure the first overall pick. Nor is it an advocation that Schoen should make any of these trades. Whether these assets are used for Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders is besides the point. In every hypothetical outcome, the Giants would only “win” these trades if the quarterback they select turns out to be a franchise-changing player. Analyzing Ward and Sanders as prospects and who the Giants could prefer will be in a future article.
Main Image: Eric Hartline – USA Today Sports
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