Bill Barnwell predicts that the NY Giants will “decline” this season. Since I do not subscribe to the service, based on the Tweet, I will assume this means the Giants will not make it back to 9-7-1. That was their record last season.
One more time:
Four teams most likely to improve (Bears, Broncos, Browns, Rams): https://t.co/bFJROd1nRi |
Four teams most likely to decline (Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Vikings): https://t.co/svhC3jrfzt
Since 2017, improve column is 23-6 and decline column is 24-5.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) August 27, 2023
It then occurred to me that if the Giants finished with 7 or 8 wins, he’d still claim victory on his boastful track record. Yet the O/U win total is right there at 7.5. So that’s nothing incremental. 1.5 wins, the difference between last year’s win total (9), and Vegas (7.5), may not seem like a lot, but it is ENORMOUS. If the line moves by even half a game, it’s a ton. 1 game is seismic. Over the course of an entire season, a single game is the difference in playoff appearances and chances at a Super Bowl. Just ask Giants fans about XLII or XLVI.
Having almost no idea where the other 31 teams’ win totals were, I looked at the other 7 teams that Barnwell predicted improvement and decline. I then compared it to the Vegas total and this the result:
Improvement (Team/Differential of Vegas minus Last Season)
Chi +4.5
Den +3.5
CLE +2.5
LAR +1.5
Decline (Vegas minus Last Season)
Phi -2.5
NYG -1.5
Pit 0.0
Min -4.5
This AVERAGES to a net differential for all 8 teams of 2.5 games PER TEAM. 2.5 games is a gargantuan edge. Essentially Barnwell has made one prediction (Steelers) without any “help.” The rest are grandstanding. If he published guesses versus the forward Vegas win total for this season, that would be the true measure of adding value. Posting your track record (boasting of an 81% accuracy) is disingenuous at best when you are predicting versus last season and not this season’s handicapped total.