Rides, fades, and sleepers to help you set your weekly lineups
Welcome to Week 11! Week 10 started with a bang on Thursday night, as the Ravens and Bengals got into an all-out air war for the second time this season. Thursday games are often dull affairs, but this one was plenty of fun. Lots of fantasy matchups were decided right then and there, if any of Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, or Ja’Marr Chase was involved.
The Ravens and Bengals are done playing each other this season, barring a third meeting in the playoffs. Meanwhile, neither of them has played the Steelers yet. In fact, we’re ten weeks in and Pittsburgh somehow hasn’t played a single division game. Neither have the Bears, whose brutal upcoming schedule is not what the doctor ordered for a team in free-fall. Each of the Falcons and Saints, on the other hand, have played five of their six division games already and don’t play a division opponent for the rest of this calendar year. In other bizarre scheduling news, four teams have Byes this week, followed by six in Week 12, then zero on Thanksgiving week, and then six again the following week (Week 14, which for many fantasy leagues is the final week of the regular season). Oh, and there’s a game on Black Friday and two games on Christmas Day, which is a Wednesday. NFL, make it all make sense!
Speaking of making it make sense, Joe Burrow threw five TD passes on Thursday night and his team lost, while Jared Goff threw five interceptions on Sunday night and his team won. And with that…
Stats of the Week:
The Chiefs have won 15 straight games, including playoffs. I’ll keep running this stat until they lose.
The Chiefs have won nine straight games when they’ve fallen behind by seven or more points (including playoffs), an NFL record.
The Chiefs are underdogs (+1.5) at Buffalo this week. With Patrick Mahomes starting at QB, Kansas City is 12-1-1 against the spread as an underdog.
Travis Kelce has 32 receptions in his last three games, the second most ever by a tight end in a three-game span (Jason Witten, 33, 2012).
The Titans currently rank first in total defense (273.6 yards per game), and 29th in scoring defense (26.7 points per game). Again, someone make it make sense.
Jared Goff’s five-interception debacle came on the heels of three straight games where he threw just four (or fewer) incompletions. Nothing makes sense any more.
Teams that score zero TDs and commit at least three turnovers were 0-147 since 2010, until the Vikings’ 12-7 win at Jacksonville on Sunday.
The Cardinals had 28 first downs on just 57 plays, and faced third down only seven times, against the Jets’ “good” defense.
Ja’Marr Chase leads the NFL in each of the “Triple Crown” categories of catches, yards, and receiving TDs. He also has three of the seven 50+ point fantasy games (Full PPR) in modern NFL history. I could give you about ten more eye-popping Chase stats.
Joe Burrow has two games with five or more TD passes this season. The rest of the NFL QBs have one, combined.
Every NFL team still owns its first-round pick for the 2025 NFL draft. The last time this was the case right after the in-season trade deadline was 2001.
Guffaws of the Week:
The Bears have gone 22 straight possessions without scoring a touchdown.
The Cowboys have trailed by at least 20 points in each of their five home games this season. They’re the first team in NFL history to trail by 20+ in five straight home games.
Not to rub it in, but when the Cowboys put up a tribute to legendary Hall-of-Fame coach Tom Landy on the big screen, they spelled his name “Laundry”. Disgraceful. Nothing has gone right in Big D this season.
Week 11, here we go!
Bye Weeks: ARI, CAR, NYG, TB
Week 11 Rides, Fades and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Ja’Marr Chase, or George Kittle. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week. The rules are simple. The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had a mediocre showing in Week 10, after a very good Week 9. You can check my work here: Week 10 Preview.
Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
Ride of the Week:
Brock Purdy (vs. SEA). The long-awaited return of Christian McCaffrey from his mysterious lower-leg ailment did wonders for Purdy and the entire 49ers’ offense on Sunday. Getting Jauan Jennings back from a multi-game absence also helped, and Ricky Pearsall scored a TD on a long catch-and-run in his second career game. It’s all-systems-go for an offense that was expected to be elite. Purdy threw for 255 yards and three TDs against the Seahawks when these teams met in Seattle in Week 6. This one is a home game for the Niners, and I expect even better numbers than that. Mr. Irrelevant is a Top-5 play this week.
Fade of the Week:
Najee Harris (vs. BAL). On Sunday against the Commanders, Harris struggled to get rolling (although he did score a TD) had his lowest yards per carry average (2.5) since Week 4. In a tough matchup with Baltimore’s top-ranked rush defense this week, I think he’s a dicey play. It was an almost even snap share with Jaylen Warren last week, with Warren averaging almost twice as many yards per carry as Harris. In a game where the Steelers could be trailing and throwing a lot, I think Warren is the better play. The Ravens have allowed the second fewest rushing yards but the third most receiving yards to opposing running backs.
Sleeper of the Week:
Audric Estime (vs. ATL). Is this a “thirst trap”? Maybe. Am I expecting a ton from him? No. But he completely dominated Denver’s RB rushing attempts last week (he had 14, to three combined for the other two backs) and it feels like the coaching staff (who drafted him) wants to see what the rookie can do in the lead role with Javonte Williams (who they didn’t draft) serving as the change-of-pace, passing downs guy. He averaged under four YPC at KC, but that was against the league’s third-ranked rushing defense. The matchup this week is also unfavorable, but if you need an RB2 or Flex this week, volume is volume.
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, and Joe Burrow (Note: Daniels and Burrow are auto-starts, but have tough road matchups at PHI and LAC, respectively, so don’t be surprised if they don’t hit their usual totals); the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Jared Goff (vs. JAC). Um, what was that? Let’s just write off last week as an aberration and get back on the horse. Goff should go back to completing passes to his own team this week, in a great matchup against the Jaguars. Jacksonville brings in the league’s 31st-ranked pass defense, and only the Ravens and Bucs have allowed more FPPG to opposing QBs. The one note of caution here is that this game could get out of hand early, meaning Goff won’t be throwing that much. I still think he’s a very solid start.
Russell Wilson (vs. BAL). The Ravens continue to be the league’s most generous pass defense, and part of that is a function of how many points they score, and how good they are vs. the run, both of which force opponents to throw, throw, and then throw some more. They’ve allowed the most pass yards, most TD passes (21), and second most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. On the flip side, Wilson has been playing well, and now has two deep threats with which to take shots. He’s ranked outside the Top-10 this week and I have him higher.
C.J. Stroud (@DAL). I’ve been fading Stroud quite a bit over the last month, and it’s worked out well as he has really struggled since Nico Collins went on IR with a hamstring injury. His numbers on the season are decidedly mediocre, and scream “sophomore slump”. Losing your WR1 and WR2 can do that. If you’ve been starting him each week and hoping for a change, you know what I’m talking about. I think it’s coming this week. The Cowboys are an absolute mess and have fallen way behind in all five of their home games. I think the Texans will make it six. If Collins can return, then this call is a slam dunk. It’s the Monday night game, so here may not be certainty when you set lineups, but either way I like Stroud for a bounce-back against a defense in total disarray. Dallas has allowed the fourth most FPPG to opposing QBs.
Other QBs inside the Top-15 this week who I think could beat their weekly rankings are the red-hot Justin Herbert (vs. CIN), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. LV), Drake Maye (vs. LAR), and Bo Nix (vs. ATL).
Sleepers:
Derek Carr (vs. CLE), and in the same game, Jameis Winston (@NO). If you’re stuck this week, I see some sneaky shoot-out potential here, with two quarterbacks who absolutely love taking shots down the field. Both defenses have been inconsistent.
If you need a second QB in a Superflex, I think you can also go with Aaron Rodgers (vs. IND) and Geno Smith (@SF).
Fades:
Jordan Love (@CHI). This is mostly about the matchup, and I’m guessing most Love managers don’t have a better option. The Bears are seeing their season slip away, but the defense is holding up its end of the bargain. Maybe the firing of OC Shane Waldron will wake the whole team up. We’ll see. It’s a road game for Love, against a defense that has allowed the fewest FPPG to opposing QBs and a league-low six TD passes (in nine games played).
Sam Darnold (@TEN). Is Cinderella turning into a pumpkin? We’ve seen Darnold fade after strong play before. Not getting your team into the end zone while throwing three picks against the Jaguars’ weak defense is concerning, and it gets harder this week with another AFC south road game, this time at Tennessee. The Titans are the league’s top-ranked defense both overall and against the pass (156 yards per game). Darnold is also banged up. If he does play, he won’t be playing in my lineup.
Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that I’d try to avoid in Superflex this week (and who you could be considering) include Kirk Cousins (@DEN), Anthony Richardson (@NYJ), Gardner Minshew (@MIA), and Caleb Williams (vs. GB).
Running back:
Elite options this week – Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, and Bijan Robinson; the analysis starts below them.
Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images
Rides:
Joe Mixon (@DAL). He probably should be included in the elite options above. He’s getting excellent usage, and it’s a terrific matchup. Only Carolina allows more rushing yard per game than Dallas, and the Cowboys have allowed the second most FPPG to opposing backs, and 12 total TDs to the position. Mixon is a smash, Top-5 kind of play this week.
Devon Achane (vs. LV). Here’s another obvious name. Achane is totally dominating the running back touches for Miami, and that should continue in a plus matchup at home against the Raiders. Vegas has allowed the eighth most FPPG to opposing RBs. Like Mixon, Achane has Top-5 upside this week. I know, this is chalk so far.
Others ranked inside the Top-24 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform their rankings are Jonathan Taylor (@NYJ), Alvin Kamara (vs. CLE), Breece Hall (vs. IND), Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery (vs. JAC), and Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. LAR). Sorry about all the chalk, but it’s that kind of week at RB.
Sleepers:
Gus Edwards (vs. CIN). J.K. Dobbins dominated the snaps last week, but the carries were fairly evenly split in Gus’s first game back, and he was on the field when the Chargers got in close (although he didn’t score). He won’t catch passes, but he could get a plunge or two, and double-digit carries, against a run defense that has allowed nine rushing TDs to opposing RBs. The Chargers are rolling, and the Gus Bus is a cheap piece of the action.
Alexander Mattison (@MIA). The Raiders are the league’s worst rushing team (Jerry Jones: ‘Hold my beer!”), and they have three backs in the mix. None of that is what you want. Mattison has been a better runner than Zamir White, and if you’re desperate this week, I think he makes an OK play against Miami’s defense, which is among the stingiest vs. the pass but generous vs. the run. Miami has allowed the sixth most FPPG and 10 rushing TDs to opposing RBs.
Others you can consider if you’re stuck: Braelon Allen (vs. IND), and (gulp) Raheem Mostert (vs. LV), who is hopefully out of the fumblers’ doghouse after logging zero carries last week.
Fades:
James Cook (vs. KC). Cook has been very good most weeks, but against the Chiefs, I’d temper expectations and especially if his passing game usage continues to disappoint. Kansas City has allowed the fewest FPPG to opposing RBs, and boasts the league’s No. 3-ranked run defense. They’ve also allowed just three total TDs to the position.
Travis Etienne (@DET). Just, no. Don’t do it. The Jaguars only managed seven points at home against the Vikings last week, and it sounds like Trevor Lawrence won’t be back this week. They’re likely going to struggle mightily to move the ball and score, and this game could get very ugly in a hurry. The betting line (DET -13) is the biggest in the league so far this season. On top of all of that, the Lions are tough to run on (fifth fewest FPPG allowed to opposing RBs).
WAS RBs (@PHI). Brian Robinson, Jr. is expected back on Thursday night, and that makes both him and Austin Ekeler risky plays, given the matchup. The Eagles have been very tough on opposing RBs and especially over the last month or so. On the season, they’ve allowed just two total TDs to the position and the third fewest FPPG.
More “starting” RB Fades: Tony Pollard (and Tyjae Spears) (@MIN), and Rico Dowdle (vs. HOU).
Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Nico Collins (if he plays), and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Note that Tyreek Hill (battling a wrist injury) and CeeDee Lamb (battling being on Dallas, and Dak Prescott’s injury) have been removed from the elite list, but I can’t imagine too any people have the stones to consider sitting them (you’d have to have a very good WR corps).
Rides:
George Pickens (vs. BAL). I almost made him my Start of the Week. Since Russ took over, Pickens has been on fire. He’s the WR6 over the past four weeks, averaging almost 16 FPPG. The matchup this week is as good as it gets. The Ravens continue to get shredded through the air. Pickens won’t go as nuclear as Ja’Marr Chase did last week, but he’s a pretty safe bet for at least 85 yards and a score. The Ravens have allowed the most everything to opposing WRs: Catches, yards, TDs (16), and FPPG.
Courtland Sutton (vs. ATL). Sutton is quietly a Top-20 wide receiver again this season, and he’s coming off three straight games with at least 13 fantasy points (after a goose-egg in Week 7). Bo Nix is proving to be more than capable, and Sutton has done well in better matchups. He’s got one this week, as the Falcons don’t have much of a pass rush and are in the bottom third of the league in most pass defense metrics.
Garrett Wilson (vs. Colts). I’m predicting a get-right game for the Jets’ offense this week, after the entire team got boat raced in Arizona. Wilson leads the NFL in targets and should be busy in this one. The Colts are a favorable matchup. Davante Adams is also a Ride for me this week.
Other receivers ranked from 12-30 that I think should outperform their ranking this week include: Puka Nacua (@NE), Zay Flowers (@PIT), Cedric Tillman (@NO), Jauan Jennings (vs. SEA), Jameson Williams (vs. JAC), and DeAndre Hopkins (@BUF).
Sleepers:
Quentin Johnston (vs. CIN). Justin Herbert’s attempts per game are way up over the last month, and against the high-octane Bengals, he’ll probably need to air it out again. I went back and forth between Ladd McConkey and Johnston for this listing, and since this team really doesn’t have a No. 1 WR, I think both are decent Flex plays. Johnston has had more of a penchant for scoring, so I slightly prefer him.
Tank Dell (@DAL). Dell is ranked outside the Top-30 this week and even with Nico Collins likely returning, I think that’s a little low. Dell and C.J. Stroud have narrowly missed on a handful of very big plays over the last few weeks. Houston figures to pound it on the Cowboys, but look for one of those big plays to Dell to finally hit.
Other wide receivers ranked outside the top-30 this week that I think you can go with if you’re in need: Jakobi Meyers (@MIA), Ricky Pearsall (vs. SEA), Jerry Jeudy (@NO), Mike Williams (vs. BAL), Rashod Bateman (@PIT) and DeMario Douglas (vs. LAR).
Fades:
Drake London. London has cooled off of, and hasn’t cracked 10 fantasy points in any of his last three outings. It won’t be easy to break that skid against the Broncos, who continue to be a difficult matchup for wide receivers in general, and WR1s in particular. The Broncos have allowed the second fewest FPPG to opposing WRs. Last week, they held DeAndre Hopkins to four catches for 56 yards, and that’s been par for the course for No. 1 WRs against this defense (and Pat Surtain) for most of the season.
D.J. Moore. Can Caleb Williams and the Bears right the ship, and will the firing of OC Shane Waldron unlock something? Possibly, but I wouldn’t bet my Week 11 lineup on it. The vibes in Chicago have been awful the last two weeks, and playing a rested Green Bay defense isn’t going to be an easy way out. Moore has scored five or fewer fantasy points in four straight contests and only has one Top-12 weekly finish on the entire season. He has talent, sure, but I’d rather be a week late than continuing to roll him out there each week in exchange for four points.
Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks (@CHI). One of these three will probably have a decent game, but who that will be is anyone’s guess. The Bears continue to be a difficult passing game matchup. They’ve allowed the third fewest FPPG and just five receiving TDs to opposing WRs.
Brian Thomas, Jr. What a shame. Thomas was having a fantastic rookie season, but that’s probably going to be on hold for as long as Mac Jones is subbing in for Trevor Lawrence. Like the Bears, the vibes are just all wrong with Jacksonville right now, and it’s an offense I’m avoiding. The Lions do give up passing yards to WRs (second most of any defense), but they’ve allowed just six TD catches to receivers and a TD is what you’re counting on if you put BTJ into your lineup.
Other Fades: Jaylen Waddle (vs. LV), Michael Pittman, Jr. (@NYJ), Amari Cooper vs. KC, if he plays), and Jordan Addison (@TEN),
Tight end:
Elite option this week – Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Brock Bowers; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
T.J. Hockenson (@TEN). If you drafted him and carried him on your roster this far, you had to be happy with his 8-for-72 line (on nine targets) last week at Jacksonville. His quarterback had a rough game and has been trending in the wrong direction, and the Titans aren’t an ideal matchup (eighth fewest FPPG allowed to TEs, and the NFL’s overall No. 1-ranked defense), but I think Hock is almost all the way back and that means he’s a set-it-and-forget-it player again.
David Njoku (@NO). His last game before the Bye was a quiet one, but he was starting to get on a roll before that, and he’s got a good matchup this week. The switch to Jameis Winston has benefitted the entire passing game, and Njoku is another player who is now pretty much a weekly must-start, unless you’ve got one of the very top options.
Tucker Kraft (@CHI). Kraft has been a boom-or-bust option this season, and those boom weeks have vaulted him all the way up to the TE7 on the season, and since Week five, he’s the TE4. The Bears are a tough defense all around, but a little less-so against tight ends. I think this is going to be one of those up weeks for Kraft.
Other TEs in the Top-15 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking: Mark Andrews (@PIT), Taysom Hill (vs. CLE), Dallas Goedert (vs. WAS), and if he plays, Dalton Kincaid (vs. KC).
Sleepers:
Dawson Knox (vs. KC). This assumes Dalton Kincaid is out, but even if he plays at less than 100%, you can consider Knox if you’re stuck. The Bills will definitely be without Keon Coleman, and could also be without Amari Cooper. Knox figures to get more run than usual whether or not Kincaid plays. The Chiefs have a great defense, but they’ve allowed the third most catches, second most yards, and second most FPPG to the position.
Pat Freiermuth (vs. BAL). ‘Muth has shown up pretty frequently as a Fade for me this season, but if you’re going to risk it and roll him out, this is as good a week as any to do it. It’s troubling that he’s seen three or fewer targets in five straight games, but he did find the end zone last week, and if Russell Wilson hits a season-high in pass attempts this week I won’t be surprised. The Ravens are a funnel defense, and that funnel is passing. They aren’t just struggling to cover WRs; they’ve allowed the eighth most FPPG to opposing TEs as well.
Other TEs ranked outside the Top-12 that I think can be slotted in this week if needed: Hunter Henry (vs. LAR), Jonnu Smith (vs. LV), and Will Dissly (vs. CIN).
Fades:
Sam LaPorta (vs. JAC). LaPorta was having his best game of the season last week before leaving with a shoulder injury. He’s questionable to play this week, and even if he does suit up, I don’t think the Lions will need him to do all that much. He’s a risky start if active.
Evan Engram (@Det). Engram caught six passes from Mac Jones last week, which is encouraging. That netted just 40 yards though, and I think you could see a similar output this week. Engram’s floor is OK, but he only has one score on the year and there isn’t much ceiling right now. The Lions have defended TEs very well (third fewest FPPG and just one TD catch allowed to the position, plus only one tight end has scored 10+ fantasy points against them), so it’s also a difficult matchup.
Other TE Fades (of players you could be considering): Mike Gesicki (@LAC), Jake Ferguson (vs. HOU), and Cole Kmet (vs. GB).
PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12): See my Week 11 Waivers column.
That’s all I’ve got. Good luck in Week 11!
***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly FanDuel Props of the week for the Giants, also right here.
Note: Next week is MY Bye Week, so I won’t have columns up. I’ll be back for Week 13!***