Make the case: Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy?

Which quarterback would be the better pick for the Giants?

Yet again, the New York Giants are slated to select in the top six in the 2024 NFL Draft. This is the fourth time since 2018 (Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones, Andrew Thomas, and Kayvon Thibodeaux) that the Giants will have selected this high in the draft. For the sake of employment, Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen don’t plan on consistently selecting this high.

The quarterback position has generated more buzz than usual this draft cycle. It’s rumor season, and the heavy smoke makes one feel like they’re lounging with Willie Nelson and Snoop Dog. Still, there’s at least a plausible reality where the first four picks are quarterbacks.

Caleb Williams will be the selection at number one overall for Ryan Pace and the Chicago Bears. The Washington Commanders pick at number two gets interesting. ESPN’s Adam Schefter joined the Trap or Dive podcast and gave his thoughts on what Adam Peters and Dan Quinn are thinking in Washington:

The Patriots become a very interesting team after the Commanders make their selection, especially if New England isn’t in love with the remaining quarterback prospects. The Giants could look to leap over Arizona and Los Angeles to secure a future quarterback prospect if Schoen and Daboll are so inclined. If that reality manifests, which quarterback would they target?

The two quarterbacks in consideration are North Carolina’s Drake Maye and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. The latter was the catalyst for turning around a talented Michigan roster, and the former makes sensational throws but has frustrating inaccuracy throughout his tape. Eli Manning also has helped Maye through the pre-draft process.

Here are my thoughts on both quarterbacks:

Drake Maye, UNC

Maye comes from a family of athletes; his brother Luke played forward (basketball) at UNC and was an undrafted free agent for the Milwaukee Bucks. His brother Cole was a pitcher for the Florida Gators. His brother Beau was an impressive athlete who, due to injury, had his potential stifled; still, Beau was Drake’s roommate at UNC and walked on to their basketball program. Maye is the youngest of the four boys.

Maye finished his college career with 62 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and a completion rate of 64.7%. He threw for 7,990 yards.

Maye established himself as a top-tier college quarterback in 2022. He won ACC Player of the Year, ACC Offensive Player of the Year, and ACC Rookie of the Year, and he was First-team All-ACC with an 8.4% big-time throw percentage and a 2.4% turnover-worthy play rate. His overall statistics were down in 2023, as he earned a spot on the All-ACC Second-Team, but his turnover-worthy play rate was down to 1.9%, with a 7.7% big-time throw rate.

Maye’s aDot (10.4% / 11%) and adjusted completion rate (75.4 % / 75.3%) were consistent in both his starting seasons. UNC’s drop rate was 8.2% in 2023, up 2.6% from the previous year. Maye was the only FBS quarterback to accumulate 9,000 yards or more over the last two seasons.

Strengths

• Big physical athlete with great mobility
• Impressive lateral agility and juke move for a man of his size
• Has made several defenders look silly in short-area
• Handles protections at the LOS
• Coaching staff trusted him at an early age
• Good presnap comprehension to see pressure and throw hot
• Recognizes and will punish defenses to the field when aligned soft-leverage – takes what the defense gives him
• Held defensive players in place with his eyes to leave throwing windows ajar till the last second
• Will hold a side of the field with his eyes, quickly snaps to open concept – gets defenders moving
• Creative and strong rusher – will run through arm tacklers
• Tough runner – not easy to bring down
• Strong and sturdy in the pocket
• Will slide away from blitz and reset in the pocket to buy time
• Solid overall poise in the pocket – didn’t seem frazzled
• Multiple throws with defenders hanging off of him
• NCST Q4 14:01 first-and-10 dig over the MOF with touch when hit
• Duke Q3 7:56 fourth-and-4 found out route with defender on him for 2+ seconds
• Duke OT 12:30, 2-point conversion where Maye was NAILED, found open TE
• PITT Q2 1:07 second-and-4
• Just a clean-looking thrower from the upper body with a solid release on his deep passes
• Impressive understanding of timing and how to find receivers in a crowded area
• Anticipatory passing extends throwing windows while ajar
• Fantastic ability to throw with anticipation over the middle of the field
• Will hit receivers in stride – does change trajectory when warranted
• Can layer throws over linebackers and in between safeties
• Good control of velocity and pace on the football
• Albeit inconsistent with accuracy, flashes ELITE arm talent
• Flashes elite level touch over the middle of the field
• Strong arm with very good overall arm strength
• Flicks his wrist and the ball travels
• Ball zips out of his hand in quick game slants/sticks
• Throws a beautiful pass over the middle of the field – tight spiral
• Throws a beautiful deep post – hits WR upfield in stride
• Will throw unorthodox flip passes – has creativity
• Will change his arm angle to enhance creativity as a thrower
• Can make a full-field read, patient with time, will extend play
• Reacted well to safety movement
• Clemson Q3 6:52 second-and-6 found backside dig to Walker
• Clemson Q4 9:21 second-and-3
• Duke Q4 4:33 first-and-10 safety dropped, hit post on the move, dropped
• Miami Q1 6:30 third-and-18 anticipatory seam TD off over buzz SAF
• Miami Q3 10:04 first-and-10 safety didn’t gain depth, deep post TD, TOUCH
• Virginia Q1 8:40 second-and-8 beautiful cover 3 seam for TD
• Virginia Q1 5:56 third-and-7 patience w/time hit in second window
• Virginia Q2 00:58 first-and-10, full field read, found curl, good job not throwing 1st
• GT Q1 11:25 second-and-4 read front side clearout, found BS cross, touch before SAF
• GT Q2 11:00 second-and-6 beautiful COP read to split safeties
• GT Q2 6:09 third-and-9 beautiful C2 MOF throw, touch, timing, dropped
• Beautiful throw under pressure, off backfoot
• Clemson Q1 4:39 33-yard TD on deep crosser
• PITT Q1 4:56 18-yard far hash throw near SL
• South Carolina Q3 6:34 TD in 1v1 (lucky more than beautiful, extreme toughness)
• Was getting beat bad vs. PITT in beginning of the game – displayed grit to battle and find answers later in the contest
• Has 3 to 4 insane HIGHLIGHT throws every game
• Has playmaking style to extend play outside of structure
• Blindside sack – took huge hit – vs. Miami; two dimes on the next two throws (Q1, 3:40)
• Had clutch moments in college (Duke, 2023)
• Rebounded well from bad mistakes – mental toughness
• Played in two types of offenses – Phil Longo’s air raid and Chip Lindsey’s more balanced approach
• Two-time team captain

Weaknesses

• Does take some big hits when on the move – could get down to preserve health
• Especially vs. Minnesota
• Does have poise in the pocket but would bail when unnecessary at times
• Loose/needless steps/footwork leads to accuracy issues
• Footwork lacks process – fluctuates from play to play on similar concepts
• Multiple hitches and mini-steps with front foot when stepping into the pocket
• Double or triple taps front foot when scanning
• When stationary, will throw football without being aligned (one cause for inaccurate passes)
• Unnatural with the lay-up, Steph Curry with the three
• Skipped football into target – short-changed passes
• Clemson Q1 13:41 second-and-11 under pressure, LB blitz
• Clemson Q1 11:16 first-and-10 throwing into sunlight
• Clemson Q4 10:33 first-and-10
• GT Q3 12:10 2nd & 10 skipped open dig route
• Miami Q1 12:27 second-and-10 skipped far hash flat inside the numbers
• Miami Q2 14:37 second-and-11 skipped curl into WR
• Syracuse Q1 14:23 first-and-10 multiple FF hitch, nose dive boundary comeback
• Syracuse Q1 3:38 first-and-10 noticed deep horizontal cross, missed long
• Syracuse Q2 9:23 first-and-10 rollout skipped hitch
• App State Q3 12:43 first-and-10 play action rollout, miss in flat
• App State Q4 5:26 second-and-11 skipped football in on dig route
• App State Q4 00:35 second-and-4 skipped football in on the side line
• South Carolina Q2 7:18 second-and-14 missed bad on boundary comeback
• Bad ball placement
• NCST Q3 9:17 first-and-goal boundary flat missed wide
• NCST Q3 6:26 first-and-10 overthrow on deep curl at numbers
• Duke Q2 5:18 first-and-10 on his own 1-yard line, terrible decision INT on overthrow
• Clemson Q1 5:53 first-and-10 slant thrown behind, still caught by Walker
• Clemson Q3 14:05 first-and-10
• Clemson Q3 2:39 first-and-10 under pressure, out route too far inside, almost INT
• Miami Q2 11:33 first-and-10slant thrown behind, INC, hung front foot as he started throwing motion
• Miami Q3 10:04 first-and-10 hitch thrown behind and low, INC
• Virginia Q1 14:18 second-and-10 airmailed an easy throw to the flat
• Virginia Multiple deep misses mid-Q2
• Virginia Q4 3L17 fourth-and-12 in RZ, multiple hitch on front foot, thrown high on SL
• Syracuse Q2 2:17 second-and-5 missed CD high and outside over the MOF
• Syracuse Q2 1:53 third-and-4 slant behind, 77 yd touchdown off great WR play
• PITT Q2 14:40 second-and-8 missed out route wide
• MINN Q2 12:25 first-and-10 on the run INT, needed more touch on out route
• MINN Q2 9:47 first-and-10 throw to the inside of a flat route, WR fell
• MINN Q4 9:26 first-and-10 throw behind LOS, RB barley picked it off deck
• App State Q1 13:46 first-and-10 wide open seam off RPO thrown behind INC
• App State Q2 00:18 first-and-10 pressure on screen, erratic miss high
• App State Q3 10:16 first-and-10 ugly missed throw on screen, miscommunication?
• South Carolina Q2 10:02 first-and-10 sailed deep 9 out of bounds, was open
• South Carolina Q3 2:22 second-and-8 on the move INT on crosser, thrown too inside
• Left easier plays on the field
• Clemson Q1 10:42 third-and-8 threw field 7 when slant was WIDE open
• Clemson Q3 10:53 fourth-and-6 stepped up into sack, had hitch open
• GT Q1 9:45 second-and-9 in RZ, 7 open for a bit, did not see to the roll side
• Syracuse Q1 7:02 second-and-10 pick/flat route wide open to field, ran for 3 yds
• PITT Q2 3:31 first-and-10 corner route was open, hesitant and ate sack
• MINN Q2 13:51 third-and-5 a bit late to see wide open player up seam, still 55 yd gain
• App State Q2 6:26 first-and-10 had WR wide open up seam, failed to see, CD for 7
• App State Q4 00:55 first-and-10 rollout, had WR on SL, waited and threw away
• Overall inconsistent accuracy is a real concern
• Can do a better job learning when to take a sack – will recklessly throw football to avoid sack – this happened vs. Duke, Minnesota (2023)
• Failed to account for apex when targeting flat, resulting in INT
• Minnesota (2023) Georgia Tech (2022)

Drake Maye is big, strong, mobile, tough, and his tape has highlight throws scattered throughout. He flashes an impressive understanding of timing and how to throw receivers open, with an aggressive penchant for attacking tight windows over the middle of the field. Ample confidence and arm talent allow Maye to attempt throws that most other quarterback prospects fail to try.

Drake Maye has a rare ability to generate throwing windows through anticipatory passing and ball placement that narrowly evades the defender over the middle of the field; in doing so, his receivers are forced to make tough but achievable catches at the limits of their catch radius. This happens when stagnant and on the move, vertically and horizontally. Of course, any quarterback would benefit from having a top pass catcher on their team; however, not every quarterback will put that star receiver into a position to utilize his elite skill set by deliberately challenging the boundaries of the receiver’s orbit while accurately taking into account the receiver’s spatial relationship with the defenders.

Maye had several elite-level throws on tape that weren’t secured by the receiver. One may surmise the throw was off-target, for the pass wasn’t an easy catch, but, in many cases, it was the only location where the receiver could realistically haul in the pass. These throws put Maye’s offense in a position of success that does not exist with many other quarterbacks.

Great arm talent – with the correct pace/touch on the football, most of the time on intermediate to deep passes. Maye puts good zip and velocity on his passes, and he also has creativity as a passer. He doesn’t seem rattled and is poised in the pocket, with an ability to keep his eyes downfield as he extends plays.

So, why are there reservations? Inconsistent accuracy, specifically on the layup passes. Maye lacks structure in his dropback – his footwork needs a refined process. His front foot is erratic with its placement, and he doesn’t always align his body to the target; this could be the catalyst for his frustrating propensity to nose-dive easy flat passes into the deck at the receiver’s feet. It’s not a once-a-game phenomenon – it happens far too frequently. This problem may be attributed to Maye’s experience in Phil Longo’s air raid system, which has a dropback process different from conventional offenses. Maye played with Chip Lindsey last season, and some of the erratic footwork could be a product of his time in the air raid.

Overall, he is a good processor, but he leaves some plays on the field and makes reckless last-second decisions when he gets hit. He’s talented and strong enough to complete passes with defenders draped on him – he should be applauded for that grit – but he’s also thrown directly to defenders in similar situations, so learning when to eat a sack could be useful.

Few players in recent college football memory possess the combination of Maye’s size, athletic ability, arm talent, arm strength, and calculated aggressive nature to challenge windows that will be slightly ajar. For that, his ceiling resembles the Sistine Chapel in height and in beauty. However, he’s far from a perfect prospect or a sure bet.

I don’t like doing comparisons, but here it goes:

Ceiling: Justin Herbert
Floor: Sam Darnold

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

McCarthy beat out Cade McNamara for the starting role at Michigan before the 2022 season. He earned Second-Team All-Big Ten that year. Michigan won the National Championship in 2023, with McCarthy earning the Rose Bowl Offensive MVP after he threw for 221 yards with three touchdowns against Alabama. He was First-Team All-Big Ten, the Big Ten Quarterback of the Year, and a finalist for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm and Manning Quarterback Awards.

McCarthy threw for 6,321 yards with an 8.7 yards per attempt average throughout his time as a Wolverine. He completed 67.4% of his passes (72.1% in 2023, with a 48 to 11 touchdown to interception ratio. He had a big-time throw rate of 6.0% (2021 was a small sample size at 9.5%; it was 5.9 in 2023 and 5.5 in 2022). His turnover worthy play percentage was at 3%.

He finished his time at Michigan with 28 starts in 40 games, ending his career 27-1 as a starter – the best winning percentage by any college quarterback since Toledo’s Chuck Ealy in 1971. In 2023, he set single-season program records for interception rate (1.20) and completion percentage (72.3) and finished second in pass efficiency (167.4) and touchdown passes (22). McCarthy skyrocketed his draft stock after an outstanding 2023 season. He has continued to rise up boards after reportedly interviewing well with NFL teams at the 2024 Scouting Combine. He’s smart, very athletic, and just turned 21 years old.

Strengths

• Solid height for the position – frame suggests he can add bulk
• Very good athlete quick accelerator with good agility
• Explosive mover with a fluid upper body to deliver catchable passes while on the move
• Coordinated athlete who delivers accurately on the run
• Defeated the angles of several safeties coming downhill – good speed
• Impressive command of offense, help set protections, calling out threats – coaching staff trusted him
• Operated a pro-style system at Michigan
• Keeps eyes downfield, smooth maneuver in the pocket with eyes downfield – aware player
• Will step up into the pocket to avoid high-side rushers and reset his feet with his eyes downfield
• Good sense of high-side rush; steps up and away from pressure
• Stronger in pocket than his frame would suggest
• Rutgers, Q3 1:29 third-and-5, scramble for 5 yards
• Indiana Q2 00:52 first-and-10 16-yard pass
• Hits the back of his foot, and the ball is coming out off play action – decisive
• Collects information well upon his dropbacks – solid overall processor of information
• Decisively used eyes to manipulate defenders and attacked when an opening was presented
• Solid overall job staying in structure of the play under pressure
• Wide base thrower with exceptional footwork in the pocket
• Quickly orients body to target – well-timed fluid motion
• Good biomechanics of throwing – good weight transfer into his drive throws
• Throws well with anticipation on out and curl routes
• Uses anticipation and incredible velocity to attack tight windows over the MOF
• Good grip strength for a player with 8th percentile hands to tuck football down just before a poor decision
• Solid ability to secure the football from a disregarded throw – typically uses legs when he decides against a throw last second
• Makes off-platform throws, changes launch point on the move – can throw through confined spaces
• Very good on play action bootlegs
• Exceptional ability to extend plays and improvise
• Great job pressing LOS and finding an option last minute
• Drew coverage toward LOS, found target in void
• Points to assist receivers in maximizing separation when on the move on a broken play – Indiana, Q3 third-and-10 54-yard TD
• Minnesota Q1 8:07 7-yard reception on TE
• Overall accuracy can be inconsistent, but has precise ball placement from the far hash littered through his tape
• Fluid and swift off play action to locate his target and throw the football
• Well-timed seam ball with good placement
• Good placement on backside fades to his right
• Good arm strength to drive the throw from the far hash to the outside shoulder on comeback routes
• Good drive on his throw – has velocious zip
• Highlight-level strikes through congested traffic over the MOF
• UNLV Q2 4:30 earholed the LB
• Indiana Q2 13:49 LB just misses
• Alabama Q2 third-and-9 tight man coverage on drag
• Ohio State Q2 10:29 tight window TD
• Not scared to thread a needle through tight coverage in the MOF
• Varies arm-angle on his passes – has creativity as a thrower on the move
• Solid job handling pressure and finding an answer
• Incredible poise and toughness
• Rutgers Q2 10:32 third-and-6 – hit by unblocked blitz, complete for 4 yards
• Minnesota Q3 3:25 – 24-yard TD on pivot/wheel
• Penn State Q1 14:22 second-and-10 11-yard catch
• Washington Q1 14:20 second-and-6 8-yard check down
• Will make man-coverage defenses pay with legs if no spy is used
• Has won at every level of football – at two separate programs in high school
• Just turned 21 years old

Weaknesses

• Thin frame – however, can still grow into his body (only 21 years old)
• Inaccurate ball placement
• Rutgers Q1 13:18 second-and-5 behind on near-out; Q1 8:05 first-and-10 ahead on field-out
• Poor decision making INT Q3 1:00
• Indiana Q1 5:27 third-and-7 seam thrown behind in tight coverage; Q2 4:13 overthrow on sluggo into EZ from 15-yard line
• Minnesota Q3 14:25 underthrown nine route; Q3 12:13 overthrow in flat
• Maryland Q2 00:26 from 7-yard line LB INT up seam; Q4 8:37 first-and-10, missed on deep post thrown behind
• Alabama Q2 11:15 second-and-6 overthrow on field curl
• Iowa Q1 10:24 first-and-10 overthrow on deep cross/sit
• Ohio State Q1 13:53 first-and-10 skipped ball on out route
• Needs to be more consistent with his ball placement
• Noticeably more comfortable throwing to his right (isn’t inept throwing left)
• Needs to use more touch over the middle of the field to layer passes over LB
• Deep passing is inconsistent and lacks ideal trajectory – must be softer with some of his throws
• Throws the ball too much on a line when targeting deep – must put more touch/air under the football
• Too frequently has one-speed when throwing
• Overall arm talent (touch, trajectory, speed, etc.) needs to improve – must add more throws to his arsenal
• Will throw across his body when escaping the pocket (has enough zip to attempt this but could lead to errors)
• Careless with the football on throw-away attempts
• This manifested vs. Bowling Green and Alabama

McCarthy experienced a massive jump in his play from the 2022 season, which helped the Michigan Wolverines win their 12th National Championship. McCarthy earned the trust of Michigan’s coaching staff and handled pro-styled concepts and presnap checks that suggest a wide mental bandwidth and a precocious ability to process the complexities of the quarterback position.

He’s mechanically sound in the pocket, with clean footwork on his drop back and the ability to operate a quick – rhythmic – passing attack successfully. McCarthy manages the pocket well, with a good sense of pressure and how/when to step up or evade. He also does a good job extending plays, keeping his eyes downfield, and setting an example of toughness and leadership that the rest of the Wolverines attempted to emulate throughout their championship campaign. He’s a wide-base thrower who gets good torque through his lower half into his throws. He also does well changing his arm slot when on the move, and he is creative as a playmaker and thrower when escaping the pocket.

The football fires out of McCarthy’s hand with extreme velocity; he clocked in with the second-fastest throw at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine – a speed of 61 MPH. That is no doubt impressive and was on full display in high-leverage situations throughout the season. However, McCarthy’s inability to develop a change-up or consistently alter the trajectory of certain passes remains a concern. He’s not an inaccurate quarterback, but his accuracy is inconsistent, and it can be erratic at times, albeit he’ll precisely rip far-hash throws to the sideline on the outside shoulder of wide receivers.

I have concerns over McCarthy’s deep passing ability. His 2023 49% completion rate beyond 20 yards isn’t tragically bad, but the blatant misses on deep passes are problematic; he needs to do a better job putting more air underneath the football to allow his WRs to run underneath certain passes. He is more comfortable throwing right, but I don’t believe he is terrible at throwing to the left.

He flashes good anticipatory throwing over the middle of the field and on far-hash comeback/curl routes outside the numbers. It’s not consistently present, and he can be a bit late with the football at times, but overall, he sees the field well with good awareness and responds well to the defense’s intentions.

He is more than just a developmental quarterback prospect with enticing athletic traits; McCarthy has to improve his touch and deep ball accuracy to be successful in the NFL. He does not have top-15 arm talent but possesses a fastball that would strike Ken Griffey Jr. out in his prime. Can he develop the change-up or splitter? Can he improve his arm talent and deep accuracy? These are questions that every coach will ponder.

For now, he could operate well in the right system. Focusing on the Giants, Brian Daboll’s offense with Daniel Jones fits well with McCarthy’s skill set. However, the selection of a quarterback in the top 6 should transcend the Daboll offense we’ve witnessed over the last two seasons. I’m not saying it wouldn’t be an improvement, but some of the inconsistencies about the offense wouldn’t be readily fixed with McCarthy added to the room. However, it’s plausible he can continue to develop and reach a new level of quarterbacking.

Final verdict

I liked McCarthy’s tape and believe he is more than just a game manager on a good football team. The intangibles of how he finally got Jim Harbaugh and Michigan over the proverbial hump shouldn’t be understated. Also, as listed above, he is confident to target tight windows over the middle of the field.

However, Drake Maye shares that confidence. He also possesses much more arm talent than McCarthy, albeit with some wrinkles to iron out. Maye understands how to throw the football into certain spaces to avoid defensive coverage through anticipatory skills paired with touch, pace, and proper ball trajectory. He has a great mastery of maximizing space on the field relative to coverage.

Maye has a higher upside than McCarthy, with theoretically fixable tendencies on tape. Daboll could be the perfect coach to help him improve his footwork and break the bad habits that may have developed due to his time in the air raid system.

There aren’t many quarterbacks that enter the NFL draft with – at least – the upside to eventually develop into a top-five NFL quarterback. I have no idea if Maye will develop into that type of player, but I know he has the requisite top-level arm talent and confidence that quarterbacks of that ilk possess. For that, I have to go with Drake Maye.