You can’t always get what you want
The NFL Draft is thrilling and exasperating at the same time. We can’t know what’s in the minds of Joe Schoen and his staff as the draft approaches, but I think it’s safe to say that just about every New York Giants fan would like to come out of this draft with a quarterback who will be able to start by next year, and an interior defensive lineman who is at least stout against the run and if they’re lucky, gives them a little pass rush, too.
After that, opinions diverge about what’s most important. Maybe a guard since Greg Van Roten can’t play forever and it’s not known whether Evan Neal can do any better there than he did at tackle; or a center if you’re ready to bail on John Michael Schmitz after two years; or even an offensive tackle in case Jermaine Eluemunor leaves next year. Maybe a running back to pair with Tyrone Tracy. Maybe a cornerback if you think Tae Banks is a lost cause. Maybe a wide receiver if you envision an Eagles-like or Bengals-like dilemma for opposing defenses.
Those are needs – but everyone says that drafting for need is bad strategy because you overdraft a player who’s not worth it (see Dave Gettleman, 2019, No. 6). Value, or “best player available” (as if we can actually know that before they play an NFL down), is considered a better strategy. Yet many fans regret Schoen taking Malik Nabers at No. 6 last year instead of one of the three remaining quarterbacks, even though Nabers proved himself to be truly elite despite having subpar QBs throwing to him.
We’re seeing this conflict play out as the 2025 Draft approaches. Few people think Cam Ward is the best player in the country but almost everyone now thinks he’s going to be the first prospect off the board because a need at quarterback is unlike a need at any other position. The Giants at No. 3 are likely to have Shedeur Sanders there for the taking, but most people think he’s not worth that high a pick.
The question for this draft is how the Giants can optimize the tension between need and value. To some extent it’s out of their control, since 31 other teams will determine who’s available when they pick in each round after the first. Even when the draft is deep at a position, it’s no guarantee. Schoen found that out last year as he watched a run on cornerbacks late in Round 1 and early in Round 2. He did well to find Dru Phillips in Round 3, but Phillips’ ability to cover downfield is still a question mark.
Still, it’s worth looking at how the big board sorts out to get an idea of when Schoen might/should want to jump at a player at a specific position. To get an idea, I’ll use the Top 100 rankings from Dane Brugler’s “The Beast”. Brugler is only one analyst, but he does a pretty thorough job, so hopefully his rankings are fairly representative. Here is the distribution of his top 100 prospects by position, i.e., a two-dimensional big board but without specific names:
Courtesy of Dane Brugler, The Athletic
(For the Giants’ picks on the final line I put two X’s in the 91-100 box, which isn’t quite right, but they do have the No. 105 pick, which is close.) If you bother to do the math, you’ll see there are 101, not 100, players in the chart. That is because of Travis Hunter, Brugler’s No. 1 ranked player in the draft. Brugler lists him as CB1, but in this relatively weak (compared to 2024) WR class he may be WR1 also, so I count him twice.
It will come as no surprise that Brugler sees this as a weak class for quarterbacks. He has Ward as No. 13 and Sanders as No. 34 – yikes. Edge defender Abdul Carter is his No. 2 and running back Ashton Jeanty his No. 3.
Three of the five players mentioned above will be there to be taken at No. 3, and the Giants will have no control over which three. Ward and Hunter are the most likely to be gone. Schoen and Daboll, coming from the Buffalo ecosystem, probably don’t value running backs enough to take Jeanty, even though Saquon Barkley’s career-best 2024 behind a great offensive line has made the thought of him being taken at No. 2 seem more reasonable.
Hunter would be the perfect pick at No. 3 since he’d satisfy two low-key needs at high value positions for the Giants simultaneously and he’s the BPA in this draft. If he’s gone, though, the fascinating question is whether to take Carter, who is Brugler’s No. 2 player. The argument for is that he’d be the BPA , and the Giants could really use another pass rusher. The argument against is that there are *** 17 *** edge defenders in Brugler’s top 100, more than any other position. The Giants could easily wait until Round 2 or even Round 3 to take one and possibly get a really good player who doesn’t need to be EDGE1 or EDGE2 in 2025. Nick suggests that the Giants currently only have four “blue” (Pro Bowl/All-Pro caliber) players, though, so trading down from No. 3 with Carter there would be tough to do.
IDL is a more interesting question. Mason Graham is Brugler’s No. 4 player, but this draft is also pretty deep at that position, with 11 prospects in his top 100 spread almost evenly throughout the first three rounds. Just for giggles, imagine that New Orleans, facing a 2025 season possibly without Derek Carr after his shoulder injury, decides they want Sanders (or Jaxson Dart). Here is a trade-down the Giants might go for:
The Giants move down to No. 9, getting an extra fairly high Round 2 pick and swapping Round 5 picks to make it more equitable. The Rich Hill trade value chart, which is based on statistics of actual trades that have been made in previous NFL seasons, calls this a pretty even trade, slight advantage to the Giants.
Now, at No. 9, presumably with Carter and Graham off the board as well as Sanders or Dart, the Giants could go with an edge defender like Jalon Walker, or IDL like Derrick Harmon. Then in Round 2 they would have the No. 34 and No. 40 picks to use on a QB + whichever position they did not take in Round 1. Players at those positions who may be available early in Round 2 are:
- Quarterback*: Tyler Shough (No. 50), Jalen Milroe (No. 73 – Brugler really doesn’t care for him)
- Edge defender: James Pearce Jr. (No. 36), J.T. Tuimoloau (No. 43), Landon Jackson (No. 47)
- Interior defensive linemen: Kenneth Grant (No. 25), Walter Nolen (No. 31), Tyleik Williams (No. 40)
(* Sanders is Brugler’s No. 34 and Jaxson Dart his No. 49, but I’d be surprised if either is still on the board by the start of Round 2 since QBs are routinely overdrafted.)
That would still leave the Giants with No. 65 and No. 99 to use on two of cornerback, wide receiver, guard, center, and running back. Some of the players who might be available at those places in the draft, depending on how things shake out, are:
At No. 65:
- C Jared Wilson (Brugler’s No. 57)
- RB Quinshon Judkins (No. 60)
- CB Shavon Revel Jr. (No. 62)
- WR Jalen Royals (No. 63)
- WR Tre Harris (No. 65)
- CB Nohl Williams (No. 66)
- CB Jacob Parrish (No. 67)
- CB Benjamin Morrison (No. 69)
At No. 99:
- RB R.J. Harvey (No. 93)
- OT Anthony Belton (No. 94)
- CB Quincy Riley (No. 95)
- RB Trevor Etienne (No. 97)
That No. 65 pick looks like the sweet spot for a cornerback to be taken, with decent odds that 1-2 of them listed above will still be on the board. However, if the Giants don’t trade down and only have their present No. 34 Round 2 pick, at least one of the three needs of QB, EDGE, and IDL will definitely not have been filled by the time Round 3 begins. Fortunately, there are still plenty of worthy EDGE and IDL prospects with Round 3 grades. QB, not so much unless Shough drops to Round 3.
If you’re interested in an IOL, the picture is bleak in this draft – only six guards and two centers land in Brugler’s top 100. That means most likely waiting until Day 3 to take one, if at all. That’s probably one reason Greg Van Roten was brought back, and it’s probable that JMS gets one more year to prove himself. It’s also why Giants fans should hope that Evan Neal can move from tackle to guard successfully in 2025. Ed mentions Jackson Slater and Wyatt Milum (a tackle) as Day 3 possibilities at guard.
The point isn’t to recommend any of the specific players discussed above, only to note that despite fans’ frustration that the Giants probably don’t have a crack at Ward, and maybe not at Hunter, either, the way this draft shakes out could put them in position to fill most of their remaining weaknesses while not sacrificing value.