The New York Jets just finished interviewing potential head coaching candidates and made their selection. This is a line I wrote this week, but it would have been accurate seven times since 2001. The Jets just hired Aaron Glenn, who is their eighth head coach since 2001.
- Herman Edwards (2001-2005)
- Eric Mangini (2006-2008)
- Rex Ryan (2009-2014)
- Todd Bowles (2015-2018)
- Adam Gase (2019-2020)
- Robert Saleh (2021-2024)
- Jeff Ulbrich (2024 -2024)
Jeff Ulbrich was named head coach following the firing of Robert Saleh in October. Though he was interviewed, the rumors are that he is not being considered seriously for the position. That means the Jets will likely hire their eighth head coach since 2001 in the next few weeks.
There is an undeniable correlation between the number of coaching changes an NFL team makes and Super Bowl wins. Look at the table below. The data is sorted to display the franchises that have made the most coaching changes since 2001 at the top.
| Team Name | Number of Coaches Since 2001 | Super Bowl Wins Since 2001 |
| Cleveland Browns | 10 | 0 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8 | 0 |
| Denver Broncos | 8 | 1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 8 | 0 |
| New York Jets | 8 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | 0 |
| Chicago Bears | 7 | 0 |
| Detroit Lions | 7 | 0 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 | 0 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 | 0 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 0 |
| Washington Commanders | 7 | 0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 0 |
| Houston Texans | 6 | 0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 6 | 0 |
| New York Giants | 6 | 2 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6 | 0 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5 | 0 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5 | 0 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5 | 0 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5 | 0 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | 1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4 | 2 |
| New Orleans Saints | 4 | 1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 0 |
| Green Bay Packers | 3 | 1 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 2 |
| New England Patriots | 2 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 2 |
Thirteen teams have made seven or more coaching changes since 2001. Those teams have won just two Super Bowl over that time period. In addition, the Broncos would have made less than seven coaching changes had Gary Kubiak not been forced to retire due to health concerns. Kubiak was the head coach in Denver for their last Super Bowl win.
In contrast, teams with three or fewer coaching changes since 2001, have won nine Super Bowls since 2001. If we add teams with four or fewer changes, the number of Super Bowl wins jumps to twelve. At the far end of the spectrum, teams that have made just two coaching changes since 2001 have won seven Super Bowls…seven! It begs the question: Are these teams not changing coaches because they are winning, or are teams winning more frequently because they are not changing coaches so often?
Frequent coaching changes create organizational chaos. New coaches bring new systems, forcing players to constantly readjust. The perpetual “rebuilding” cycle becomes self-fulfilling, as each new coach needs time to implement their vision, only to be replaced before that vision can fully materialize. It becomes clear that teams are winning because of stability if we analyze the data. If you are a betting sort, there are great odds for next year’s NFL champion in the module for Sports Betting at Betiton. As far as a Super Bowl winner for 2026, I recommend going with a team who has had their coach in place for several years. The New York Jets are listed as having just a 24% chance at making the playoffs next season. That is among the lowest playoff possibility percentages currently. The pessimism is attributable to the instability in the New York Jet’s organization. The finger can be pointed directly at owner Woody Johnson. Lack of success in the NFL is typically the fault of ownership, rather than coaches. Upheaval in the coaching staff is the source of failure for all of the teams that have failed to hold the Lombardi trophy over prolonged periods of time.
The Steelers are at the extreme end of the coaching change spectrum. Pittsburgh has had just two coaches since 2001, and they have had only three coaches since 1969. Chuck Noll became the head coach of the Steelers in 1969. He went 1-13 in his first season. Many teams would have fired him as soon as the last game of that season ended. Noll’s Steelers were just 5-9 in his second season, and the team went 6-8 in Noll’s third year. Noll would not have survived to coach the Steelers for a fourth season for many of today’s NFL teams. Noll was allowed to keep his job, and he led the Steelers to four Super Bowl wins. He had just two losing seasons in a tenure that spanned from 1969 – 1991. Steeler fans should review their history before they call for Mike Tomlin’s exit. Tomlin has won a Super Bowl, and he has never had a losing season in Pittsburgh. His tenure began with the 2007 season. Who would do better with the current Steeler’s roster?
If we examine the playoffs teams to reach this season’s divisional playoff round, the eight teams average a coaching change every 5.75 years. The Jets are changing twice as frequently at every 2.8 years. Diving deeper we see that the 2024-2025 playoff teams weighing that average down have allowed their current coaches to remain in their positions beyond the average time they have typically let coaches stay on board. The Lions have changed coaches every 3.4 years. Dan Campbell, current coach of the Lions, started in his role in 2021. The Bills change coaches every 3 years. Current Bills coach Sean McDermott has been in his role for 8 years.
There are most certainly instances where a coach who was deemed capable was proven not to be within one or two seasons. However, these cases are surely not as common as the hiring and firing records of many teams would indicate. In addition, what are the interview processes in place for these franchises and why are teams failing to filter out candidates that are not capable or create work environments so toxic that they need to be dismissed within months of their contracts being signed?
For the most part, owners are simply lacking patience and unrealistic in their expectations. Most of these coaches are more than capable. They are just not being given enough time to institute the types of changes that are needed to turn a losing franchise around. Success in the NFL requires complex coordination between players, coaches, and front office personnel. Coaching stability facilitates this by allowing time for relationship-building, system mastery, and organizational cultural change. Teams that understand this reap the benefits of long-term organizational coherence.
While coaching changes are sometimes necessary, the evidence strongly suggests that premature or frequent changes do more harm than good. The NFL’s most successful franchises have demonstrated that patience with a coaching staff, combined with proper organizational support, creates the foundation for sustained excellence.
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