What do you think?
Should the New York Jets look to move on from Aaron Rodgers in 2025, or should they be open to bringing him back for another season? This may be a moot point since Rodgers could decide to ride off into the sunset, knowing he will have an appointment to get a bust made for himself at the Hall of Fame in 5 years.
Rodgers may also like an opportunity to play for another team with Super Bowl aspirations in 2025. A team like the Minnesota Vikings may feel they have a better shot at a title with Rodgers instead of Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy. Or maybe the Pittsburgh Steelers are tired of losing each year with a solid defense but a questionable quarterback. The Jets could either release Rodgers or trade him for a draft pick in 2025.
This will be decided by Rodgers and/or the new general manager/head coach pair that eventually take over the Jets helm. There are a lot of moving parts to this situation so let’s go through it together.
Salary for 2025 and beyond
Rodgers’ salary would have to be reworked from the current deal if the Jets bring him back. Rodgers said he was open to this idea so there shouldn’t be much of a problem doing so. If the Jets keep Rodgers at his current salary the cap charge is $23.5 million. In actual cash expenditure the Jets would be paying $37.5 million. Rodger’s pay is only $2.5 million, but he has a bonus of $35 million added on to the pay. This is so the Jets can prorate that $35 million over the next 5 years. Rodgers has an additional $14 million charge in each of the next 4 years (beginning in 2026) due to Joe Douglas setting up those as void years. This is the Joe Douglas strategy I railed about at the time. This is salary cap idiocy to put yourself in such a dire situation with salary and void years for numerous players. I know the next general manager will be using Joe’s name in many cursing rages over the next couple of years.
If Rodgers plays under the current contract structure in 2025 and is released in 2026, the dead money charge in 2026 would be $63 million because of the prorated bonus money that was written into the contract. That means the Jets would be on the hook for $86.5 million in cap charges between 2025 and 2026 if he plays for the Jets in 2025.
If the Jets release or trade Rodgers before next season they would owe $49 million in dead money for Rodgers contract. They could take a $14 million cap hit in 2025, then the rest of the money, $35 million, could be taken in 2026 if the Jets release Rodgers with a post-June 1 designation, or if the Jets trade Rodgers after June 1, 2025.
Let’s look at the pros and cons of keeping, releasing or trading Rodgers.
Pros for keeping Rodgers
1) The Jets would have their quarterback for 2025
The Jets have Tyrod Taylor and Jordan Travis (who spent 2024 on the PUP list) under contract for 2025. Neither is a player you would expect to lead the Jets into the playoffs in 2025, but stranger things have happened. Travis is a developmental guy, and Taylor is more of a solid bridge quarterback.
By having Rodgers under center, the Jets could build their team with smart drafting plus some inexpensive free agents. Free agents may be more likely to sign if Rodgers is under center rather than Taylor, Travis or a rookie. Also, the Jets could fortify their offensive line even more with a first round pick. Olu Fashanu would have his rookie season behind him with an eye to take over for either Tyron Smith or Morgan Moses if either would not return.
2) Rodgers showed a stark improvement in the last half of the season
It can take up to two years to fully recover from an Achilles injury. Rodgers showed more mobility, and he was much more accurate as the season wore on. In his last 10 games Rodgers had 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions. In his last five games he threw for over 250 yards four times. Rodgers’ hallmark is his accuracy with the ball. When he is on, he hits receivers in stride to maximize the YAC. It is logical to assume that Rodgers will recover even more. Quarterbacks get their velocity and accuracy from the lower half of the body. With more free movement of Aaron’s injured Achilles tendon the upside to his game is increased.
Aaron Rodgers noticed the difference in his ability to play as well. He stated “It feels good to be able to do some of the things the last five or six weeks that I knew I was capable of doing even at 41.”
3) Continuity
The continuity of a team is achieved through game play, not on the practice field. Sure, you develop some familiarity in practice settings, but the offensive line must understand how a quarterback moves when he is pressured by opponents. Quarterbacks get to know where to look for a receiver and receivers know where to go when a quarterback scrambles out of the pocket.
Garrett Wilson had more than 100 receptions and more than 1,100 yards receiving. Davante Adams had 67 receptions and more than 850 yards receiving after coming over in a trade (over 1,000 yards total between teams), so you have two solid receiving options with familiarity with Rodgers.
Rodgers played only four snaps in 2023, so 2024 was the first year working with this receiving duo. Davante Adams had played with Rodgers before, but the last time before this year was in 2021. Davante will need to renegotiate his contract after the season. If the Jets want to keep him (and why not?) they would presumably get a more favorable contract for the Jets with Aaron on board. Having a healthy Aaron Rodgers with two quality receivers plus a great running back trio makes for a solid offense. Add to that an improving offensive line while adding a third solid receiver can make for an explosive offense.
4) A chance for the gold
Aaron Rodgers was brought to the Jets with visions of a Super Bowl title gleaming in the eyes of Jets fans. Exactly what has changed from that idea? The Jets mistakenly brought in Tyron Smith as a left tackle to help the line, but he was a disaster. The Jets have the 7th, 42nd and 95th picks (among others) in the 2025 NFL draft. Even in a trade down scenario the Jets could land some offensive line help in this draft.
Yes, 2024 was a monumental failure, but do you give up the dream after a single season? It’s a Herculean task to win the Super Bowl any season.
Look at the Los Angeles Chargers. They had two winning seasons in the last five years. They were 5-12 in 2023, then hired a no-nonsense coach and got to the playoffs after an 11-6 season with little change to the roster. They drafted offensive tackle Joe Alt at #5 overall in the first round, and even though he allowed six sacks on the season he was pretty solid while getting better each game. The Chargers lost in the first round of the playoffs, but that’s what happens when your quarterback throws 4 interceptions. That doesn’t take away from a great first season of the team under a new regime.
You could be looking at the same scenario for the Jets (without the first round loss) if the right people are chosen to lead the team. If the Jets let Rodgers walk they have almost no shot at that type of turnaround.
Cons for keeping Rodgers
1) Sometimes a clean break is what’s needed
A new general manager and head coach usually want to start fresh with coaches and players who fit their schemes. They keep the players they believe they can build with while getting what they can for the players who may not be a good fit. It doesn’t mean those players have zero value, it’s just not a great fit moving forward.
Building a team from the ground up like the Jets likely need takes a lot of work. Any new general manager will want at least a five year contract to achieve his vision of a team. Aaron Rodgers is not going to play for another five years. If Rodgers stays the general manager will need to bring in another quarterback sometime in the near future. A quality new quarterback is always hard to find. If Rodgers stays with the Jets the new general manager be looking at year three to find a new quarterback, which may mean another total rebuild. No new general manager is going to want another start over in year three.
2) Scheme fits and coordinators
Aaron Rodgers excels because he has control of the offense with a lot of latitude. A new regime might not want to have someone who usurps their authority on the offensive side from the start. Rodgers also has an offense that he runs that is his own. He might not have a desire to run an offense that is foreign to him.
On the flip side, some of the top available offensive coordinators might decide not to interview with the Jets due to Rodgers. Coaches can be on the hot seat in a heartbeat in the NFL. They want to live or die with their scheme rather than a scheme that Aaron Rodgers wants to run.
3) Working with a living legend
Any general manager or head coach is going to demand that their rule is absolute, especially at the beginning of their tenure. This ensures that their vision of the team is forged through practice and team meetings. They want what they say to be the only voice that is heard.
Aaron Rodgers is a walking, breathing NFL legend who speaks his mind and will say what he wants. He is not shy about making his ideas known. I’m not saying that Rodgers would purposely usurp the authority of a coach or general manager, but he may not fully understand how much weight his words carry in a locker room. Rodgers is an icon. Many of the players will be telling their grand kids about playing with him. He has enormous pull in a locker room and a new coach or general manager may not want that type of distraction around.
4) Rodgers’ best days are behind him
Aaron Rodgers has talents that most players can only dream of, even at his advanced age in football years. Yet Rodgers is a shell of what he once was as a player. Is that to say that Rodgers can’t bring a Super Bowl trophy to the Jets? No, but Rodgers has a single Lombardi trophy to his name in 20 seasons and it came by circumstance, not greatness. Rodgers won the Super Bowl in 2011 (2010 season) from the 6th seed because the Buccaneers lost to the Detroit Lions at home in overtime 23-20. Detroit had lost an NFL record 26 consecutive road games before that win. The Packers ran the table as a wild card team. They were the first team to win four playoff games to win a Super Bowl.
Since that time the Packers were the NFC #1 seed three times but never made it to the Super Bowl. Rodgers took over for Brett Favre in 2008 and he has a single Super Bowl win in 11 playoff chances. The Green Bay Packers never even made it back to the Super Bowl after the 2010 season win, so even if the Jets were to make it to the playoffs it doesn’t ensure a trip to the Super Bowl.
So you tell me – what should the Jets do?
Don’t sit on the sidelines and say later you were for or against the Rodgers return.
State your views now for all to see.