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Bills vs. Jets Preview: What Happened to Josh Allen?

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Bills Jets

Josh Allen emerged as the consensus MVP favorite during the Buffalo Bills’ 3-0 start. The banged-up superstar quarterback followed that up with two of the worst performances of his career. It’s left Bills fans to wonder what comes next amid a roller-coaster season.

Meanwhile, the New York Jets are set to play their first game since firing head coach Robert Saleh. The decision came after back-to-back losses dropped the team’s record to 2-3. Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich, who also serves as defensive coordinator, announced play-calling duties have also been shifted from offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett to passing game coordinator Todd Downing.

So there are a lot more questions than answers on both sides as the Bills and Jets prepare to battle for the AFC East division lead on Monday Night Football. Kickoff at MetLife Stadium for the marquee primetime showdown is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Bills-Texans Game Preview and Score Prediction (Week 6)

X-Factors

Bills: TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid seemed like a perfect match for the Buffalo offense when the front office selected him in the first round of the 2023 draft. Those feelings continued to build as he put together a strong rookie season, tallying 73 catches for 673 yards and two touchdowns.

The 24-year-old University of Utah product may be stuck in a dreaded sophomore slump, though. He’s already dropped four passes in five games, matching his total from 16 appearances last year, according to FantasyPros. He’s also recorded just 15 catches for 166 yards.

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Kincaid couldn’t reel in multiple catchable passes last week against the Houston Texans. He finished with two receptions on six targets in a 23-20 loss. A better game from the second-year tight end could have pushed Buffalo over the top in a key AFC battle.

It’s a two-pronged problem. The Bills, most notably offensive coordinator Joe Brady, has to do a better job of getting the 6’4”, 240-pound pass-catcher in situations where he’s a massive matchup advantage. Moving him around the formation could help make that happen.

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That said, Kincaid also has to play better. Plain and simple. He’s far too talented to start losing faith in him, but his play hasn’t lived up to the high standard he established in college and his first NFL campaign. The drops have him looking awfully similar to teammate Dawson Knox, who lost his role as the starting tight end in large part because of his drop problems.

The Bills are likely going to need a monster bounce-back performance from Kincaid to have a chance on Monday night. Wide receivers Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and Mack Hollins are all dealing with injuries and are in a race against time to play against the Jets. So, for an offense already short on weapons, the situation could be dire.

If the tight end can’t capitalize on what could be a double-digit target outing, it may be time to start worrying about whether he’ll become the key asset the Bills expected.

Jets: RB Breece Hall

Hall entered the season with perhaps the most hype of any NFL player. He was coming off a 2023 season where he posted 1,585 yards from scrimmage and nine total touchdowns, and the return of quarterback Aaron Rodgers was supposed to open up even more space for the Jets’ ground game.

Instead, the Nebraska native has been one of the league’s least productive running backs through five weeks. He’s averaging just 3.0 yards per carry and 7.0 yards per catch. He’s also lacked the game-breaking ability shown in previous years. His longest play is just 30 yards.

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It’s a troubling trend for the Jets because it doesn’t appear Rodgers will return to an MVP level. So New York won’t be able to simply rely on a pass-heavy attack like the Green Bay Packers did when their running game was struggling at the signal-caller’s peak. The unit needs balance.

The Jets also have to consider the strong play by Braelon Allen, who’s averaging 4.5 yards per rush on just under 50 percent of Hall’s volume. So, one of the key questions this week is whether new play-caller Downing leans heavier on Hall or starts pushing Allen into the lineup even more.

If Hall is going to have a get-right game, this may be his best chance. The Bills are giving up 144 rushing yards per game (26th in the NFL) and 5.2 yards per carry (32nd). Their injuries at linebacker have made defending the ground game a nightmare, and the Jets must take advantage.

Should Hall struggle again, however, expect Allen’s role to expand in the coming weeks.

Key Matchup

Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Jets interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich

Allen was on cruise control through three weeks. Then the Baltimore Ravens exposed a major weakness: the Bills’ offensive protections can’t handle pressure. Baltimore sacked the Bills quarterback three times and made his life miserable all night.

Of course, the NFL is a copycat league. It’s a cliché, but it’s also true. So what happened? The Texans watched that tape and mimicked the approach. They pressure hard up the ‘A’ gaps early and then brought blitzes off the edge. The Bills quarterback rarely had a second to stand in the pocket to survey his options.

Buffalo’s offensive line was a question mark all offseason. The group was mediocre at best throughout training camp and the preseason. So perhaps it shouldn’t come as a surprise Allen has been running for his life at times. The running backs have also struggled on blitz pickup, adding to the issues up front.

In addition, the Bills’ “everybody eats” philosophy has started to fall apart. Shakir missed the Texans game, and nobody else from the team’s pass-catching group could get open consistently. The unit is in dire need of a major upgrade before the trade deadline. Perhaps Davante Adams?

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While it’s unclear whether that WR help with arrive, one thing’s for sure: Allen and the Bills are going to see the same defensive structure until they beat it. Ulbrich and his Jets defense already rank second in yards allowed per game (136.6) this season, and now they have a battle-tested blueprint to slow down Buffalo.

Allen is also dealing with a body that’s taken a beating. He suffered an injury to his non-throwing hand in Week 1, got crushed on a multi-player hit by the Ravens in Week 4, and appeared to hit his head hard on the field against the Texans last week, though he cleared concussion protocol. He’s probably playing at far less than 100 percent right now.

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In turn, the Jets defense has a green light to bring pressure early and often on Monday night.

Final Score Prediction: 20-17 Jets

The Bills’ immaculate vibes from the first three weeks are gone. Allen’s MVP hopes are rapidly fading and Buffalo doesn’t have enough game-changers elsewhere to make up for when their quarterback isn’t carrying the team on his shoulders. Add in the growing injury issues, and things are spiraling out of control for head coach Sean McDermott and Co.

Buffalo isn’t facing a must-win situation. It’s too early for that. Yet, whatever the mid-October equivalent of a must-win game is, this probably elevates to that level. A loss would not only completely erase a 3-0 start but also drop the Bills to second in the division.

Allen will do everything in his power, no matter how injured he truly is, but the Bills desperately need some other players to step up Monday night.

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On the flip side, it’s hard to understand why the Jets aren’t better. The defense is once again among the NFL’s best and the offense features no shortage of talent. This team should be an emerging contender, not hovering around .500.

That’s likely why the coaching change came early. New York needed to shake things up while there’s still enough time for a major turnaround. A new head coach and a fresh set of eye calling the plays has a real chance to spark something for the Jets.

This might be an ugly game. The Bills are depleted with an injured face of the franchise. The Jets are going to endure some issues while working through the coaching changes. A battle for field position could ensue.

In the end, it’ll likely be a one-score game in either direction.

Main Image: Thomas Shea – USA Today Sports

The post Bills vs. Jets Preview: What Happened to Josh Allen? appeared first on Last Word on Pro Football.