There is only one thing I feel confident in saying about the seven new hires in the 2025 coaching cycle.
Most of them will be fired at some point over the next three years.
If there’s a reliable way to predict successful NFL coaches, I haven’t found it yet and the NFL certainly hasn’t either. Change is the only constant for head coaching hires, who have to battle ferocious headwinds such as a fiercely competitive NFL, a scarcity of quality quarterbacks, impatient owners and high bars for success.
In the 2020s so far, there have been 42 coaching changes or an average of seven per year. The number of one-and-done coaches this decade (seven) already equals the number from the 2010s and there are still four more years left in the 2020s to keep adding.
There’s also a huge learning curve. Most coaches who are hired are first-timers who were previously coordinators or even lower on the staff hierarchy. While some head coaches continue to call plays for their respective side of the ball and have a big hand in constructing game plans, the job of head coach is significantly different than the job of a coordinator, and that’s borne out in the results.
All of that is to say what you are about to read is probably going to be wrong in a year. Some of it might even be downright silly. But hopefully, some of it is less wrong than the rest.
A quick note — while the Saints have not hired their head coach yet, all signs are pointing to Eagles OC Kellen Moore as the top target they’ve zeroed in on. Moore can’t officially join the team until after the Super Bowl on February 9. By that point, the rest of this article will be a lot less relevant, so we’re rolling with what we’ve got and the current uncertainty will be reflected in the Saints’ grade section.
Bears: Lions OC Ben Johnson
Grade: A
There’s no way to know for sure if Johnson is going to be a success as a head coach. But as an offensive coordinator, it’s hard to compile a better resume than the one he has. Since Johnson took over as the play-caller, the Lions have been a top-five offense — literally. They’ve finished inside the top five in both scoring and total yards in all three of Johnson’s seasons, including ranking as the No. 1 scoring offense and No. 2 total offense in 2024.
Johnson’s creativity and skill as a play-caller has been a huge factor in Detroit’s success, particularly because while Lions QB Jared Goff is a solid player, he’s not in the same tier as some of the other forces of nature playing quarterback right now. Johnson is also unique because his roots aren’t in the ubiquitous coaching tree of 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan and Rams HC Sean McVay that dominates the NFL. While his offense borrows from that family like most around the league, his scheme has its own identity.
That’s made Johnson an incredibly in-demand commodity over the past few years, and he was once again the clear top candidate of this past hiring cycle. One of the biggest edges an NFL team can have is a head coach who is also a strong play-caller on offense. Shanahan, McVay, Chiefs HC Andy Reid, Packers HC Matt LaFleur, Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell and more all have a leg up on their competition because even if a team poaches the offensive coordinator, the system remains the same and the brain drain is mitigated. It’s obviously not the only way to have success but other types of coaches face more challenges.
If Johnson is a success as a head coach, he gives the Bears a chance to have defined stability on offense and an edge against a lot of other teams. Even if he’s not a lock, the upside alone makes this a shot Chicago had to take. The urgency is even higher with former No. 1 pick Caleb Williams at quarterback, and the two men now have their legacies tied together. Williams is talented but has a lot to clean up from his rookie year. It’s up to Johnson to tap into that.
Cowboys: OC Brian Schottenheimer
Grade: D
Despite the disparity in grade here, Schottenheimer’s chances of success are a lot closer to Johnson’s than most people would estimate. Both men are first-time head coaches. Schottenheimer has decades of experience on Johnson, while the latter’s resume as an offensive coordinator blows Schottenheimer’s out of the water. But then again, neither is being hired to be just an offensive coordinator.
This grade is as much about the process as anything about Schottenheimer the candidate, who was not on the radar of any other team for a head coaching vacancy. Dallas got a late start into the coaching process after failing to come to terms with former HC Mike McCarthy following a week of talks. Owner Jerry Jones had informal conversations about the job with tons of people, including Colorado HC Deion Sanders, but the only formal interviews for the vacancy that Jones conducted were with former Jets HC Robert Saleh, Seahawks assistant Leslie Frazier, Eagles OC Kellen Moore and Schottenheimer.
Hardly a thorough process…
It’s not stretching the imagination too much to think that Jones was caught off guard when McCarthy walked rather than accept a short deal with fewer assurances than his 49-35 Dallas record, playoff failures notwithstanding. It’s hard to crawl into the mind of Jones and suss out what exactly he was thinking — it’s hard enough to translate his meandering statements after hiring Schottenheimer — but one thing that seems clear is that the top priority for Jones with this hire was not winning. The word “deference” was used way too much in Schottenheimer’s introductory press conference, and “deference” is not a quality I’d associate with successful NFL head coaches.
It’s not that Jones doesn’t care about winning, it’s that he prioritizes a slew of other things equally or more than putting together the best possible team. Things like the Cowboys’ brand value, other business pursuits, even Jones’ status as the general manager of the team. Hiring Schottenheimer is just the latest in a long slew of examples, especially in the past couple of years.
That’s not to say Schottenheimer has no chance of being a success. I think he’s gotten a bad rap over the years and is a better coach than given credit for. The last time Schottenheimer called plays was with the Seahawks and Seattle was a top-10 scoring offense for three straight years. Schottenheimer had positive reviews from QB Russell Wilson for tailoring the offense before a philosophical difference with HC Pete Carroll sparked a split. Keeping him preserves continuity for the offense and QB Dak Prescott, who was an advocate for him during the process.
But if Schottenheimer is to find success, he has to battle against all the other issues with the way the Cowboys are structured and run that have prevented all the other coaches before him from breaking through. The way he was hired suggests those are unlikely to change.
Jaguars: Buccaneers OC Liam Coen
Grade: B-
The first thing to establish with Coen is that his work as the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay this past year was legitimately great. In Coen’s first year as a primary NFL play-caller, the Buccaneers were No. 3 in total offense and No. 4 in scoring. They were top five in both rushing and passing yards, speaking to Coen’s versatility. And after matching his career bests in 2023, Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield took an even bigger jump in 2024, completing over 71 percent of his passes, averaging nearly eight yards per attempt and tossing 41 touchdowns.
It’s easy to see how Coen was high on Jacksonville’s wish list. The Jaguars were seeking an innovative play-caller to maximize QB Trevor Lawrence, and Coen has been viewed as a potential quick riser the past few years with multiple stints on McVay’s staff in Los Angeles. Once the Jaguars struck out on Ben Johnson because of owner Shad Khan’s reluctance to fire GM Trent Baalke, Coen fit the bill best of the remaining options.
Khan’s loyalty to Baalke nearly cost him Coen, too. On the day of Coen’s second interview with Jacksonville, a Wednesday, news broke that instead he was staying in Tampa Bay with a raise making him one of the league’s highest-paid coordinators. That same day, the Jaguars fired Baalke and made a renewed run at Coen, triggering one of the messiest coaching pursuits in recent memory.
Coen went dark on the Buccaneers who were trying to coordinate the logistics of getting him in the building to sign his new contract, traveling to Jacksonville for the second interview on Thursday to push things over the finish line. He didn’t inform the Bucs until late in the day, telling them he was reconsidering the Jaguars’ offer, at which point Tampa Bay already knew he was in Jacksonville.
There are multiple potential reasons for the cloak and dagger. Coen’s new contract with Tampa Bay included a stipulation that he wouldn’t take the second interview in Jacksonville, and the Jaguars also still needed to satisfy the Rooney Rule with an in-person interview with Raiders DC Patrick Graham on Thursday before they could hire Coen. None of that makes it less of an icky way for everything to go down.
To be clear, I don’t fault Coen for taking a massive promotion that includes a raise of nearly three times what he would have made from the Bucs. That has implications for him and his family, and he’s right that at the end of the day, the league is a business. What I do have issues with is the way he handled it. It should not have been difficult to be upfront with the Buccaneers that the situation had changed after the Jaguars fired Baalke.
At the end of the day, if Coen’s Jaguars put up points and wins, this whole episode will be just a footnote. But for me, it opens up major questions about Coen’s leadership qualities that weren’t necessarily as loud before. It puts his job history in a new light, as the longest Coen has stayed in any one place is three years with the Rams as a low-level assistant from 2018-2020. From 2021 until now, Coen has jumped to a new team and new role every single year. It looks exactly like someone trying to climb the ladder as fast as they can.
Ambition isn’t necessarily a bad quality for an NFL head coach. It could even be probably correlated with success. Inauthenticity is a glaring red flag, though. Every former player will say how easy it is to see through a coach who’s being fake, and Coen giving a whole soundbite about the importance of honesty after the way he handled his departure from the Bucs is not a good look. Coen’s job isn’t just to call the plays anymore, it’s to lead the whole organization, and his success will depend far more on the latter than the former.
Jets: Lions DC Aaron Glenn
Grade: B
There are parallels to draw between the Jets’ hiring of Glenn and the Texans’ hiring of HC DeMeco Ryans in 2023. Both were former high draft picks who maintained strong emotional and personal connections to the organizations that gave them their first shot in the NFL. Both were defensive coordinators respected as much for their charisma and leadership as for the product they engineered on the field.
And just like the Texans in 2023, who had fired coaches in three successive seasons, the Jets ended up with a better candidate than the quality of their coaching vacancy probably merited because of that connection. Glenn interviewed with five of the seven teams to have a vacancy this year and was requested for a sixth, but said the Jets were his top choice all along.
There are also parallels to draw between Glenn and former Jets HC Robert Saleh, another former defensive coordinator and a first-time head coach heralded for his energy and ability to connect with players, though Glenn’s cache as a former player might give him a little extra credibility. Still, the fact that the comparison can be made at all is interesting because teams usually pivot away from the archetype of the former coach when making new hires.
Glenn isn’t Saleh but he’ll face many of the same challenges his predecessor did — navigating a harsh New York media environment, changing the culture of a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2010, managing up with owner Woody Johnson and most importantly finding a franchise quarterback. Saleh’s shortcomings in those areas led to his ouster, which was too early in the season but not wholly undeserved. There were points at which the Jets looked poised to break through and Glenn will have to push the right buttons to get back to that point.
Patriots: Former Titans HC Mike Vrabel
Grade: A-
The Patriots are getting a proven commodity in Vrabel. In six years with the Titans, he compiled a 54-45 record with three playoff appearances, one AFC championship appearance, one No. 1 seed and four winning seasons. His teams had a clear identity — physical and punishing on both offense and defense while also winning on the margins with an attention to detail. With Vrabel’s connection to New England, it’s easy to see why the Patriots blitzed this hire through.
Vrabel historically has done an above-average job with his staffing choices, seeing two offensive coordinators poached for head coaching jobs in Matt LaFleur and Arthur Smith. He should get some benefit of the doubt with the hire of OC Josh McDaniels, which is a pivotal move as McDaniels will be entrusted with developing first-round QB Drake Maye. If Maye is as much of a dude as the team, media and fans in New England believe, Vrabel will easily have the best quarterback of his coaching career, which could be a missing piece to unlock even better results.
There’s a case to be made the Patriots should have taken a more open approach to their coaching search after being one of the most insular organizations in football for the past 25 years. However, it’s hard to fault the end result.
Raiders: Former Seahawks HC Pete Carroll
Grade: B+
There was not a more established coach than Carroll to get a job this year. He arrives in Las Vegas with a 137-89-1 record from his 14 years as the head coach of the Seahawks, which also includes 10 playoff appearances, two Super Bowls and one Lombardi. All the way to the end in Seattle, Carroll’s teams had a clear identity too. While the quality waxed and waned — and there was more waning on defense in the latter half of Carroll’s Seattle tenure — the Seahawks were always physical on both sides of the ball, built around the run game and always found a way to have success with less-heralded options at quarterback.
The success was less glamorous and fewer and further between towards the end in Seattle. In Carroll’s last three years, the Seahawks were 25-26, missed the playoffs in two of those seasons and were bounced in the first round in the other. Carroll wasn’t able to modernize fast enough with his coordinator hires on either side of the ball to keep up with the rest of the NFC West.
Still, the Raiders would gleefully sign up for all of that at this point. Unfortunately, Carroll is not a long-term solution. As energetic as Carroll remains at 73 years old, there are just realities about that number that can’t be ignored forever. He’ll be the oldest head coach in NFL history when he takes the field in Week 1. This should be seen as a foundation-building hire, with Carroll resetting the culture and creating something his successor can run with in a few years.
Saints: Eagles OC Kellen Moore?
Grade: C+
The Saints have not finalized their hire but at this point all signs are pointing to Moore being the frontrunner and the likely hire once the Super Bowl is in the books. Moore has been an offensive coordinator for the past six years and the results have been strong on paper. He spent four years in Dallas before being allowed to walk as the team transitioned to McCarthy as the play-caller. He was with the Chargers for a year on former HC Brandon Staley’s staff until Staley was let go, then joined the Eagles this past offseason.
| Year | Team | Points | Yards |
| 2019 | DAL | 6 | 1 |
| 2020 | DAL | 17 | 14 |
| 2021 | DAL | 1 | 1 |
| 2022 | DAL | 4 | 11 |
| 2023 | LAC | 21 | 18 |
| 2024 | PHI | 7 | 8 |
That’s four out of six years coordinating a top-ten offense or better. Moore’s done it in multiple ways, too, throwing the ball all over the yard with Prescott in Dallas before calling a more run-heavy approach this past year with the Eagles. As you can surmise, Moore has been a popular head coaching candidate for many many years.
That hasn’t resulted in a top job yet. Moore has interviewed for 10 vacancies in the past five years, including the Eagles, Broncos, Vikings, Dolphins, Panthers, Chargers, Cowboys, Saints and twice with the Jaguars. He reached the second round with the Dolphins and Panthers but so far has struck out. When this many teams pass on a candidate, it starts to become an indicator that maybe there are red flags being raised during the process.
Perhaps teams are uncertain about Moore’s lack of experience. He’s still just 35 years old and would be the youngest active NFL head coach if/when he’s hired by the Saints. Moore is also more understated and not as fiery, which might cause some teams to question if he has the juice to lead a locker room. While his offenses have had a lot of statistical success, Moore’s system has also drawn some critiques for a lack of attention to detail in some areas, which again could trace back to his inexperience.
Ready or not, though, it looks like Moore is going to get his shot with New Orleans. I personally think the Saints’ job is better than it’s characterized, but the market has spoken and deemed it the least desirable of this cycle. The good news for Moore is that expectations are not going to be sky high to start and he should get some time to learn on the job.
Should Moore spurn the Saints in the end like several other candidates have so far, the Saints would pivot to one of the other finalists — Giants OC Mike Kafka, Dolphins DC Anthony Weaver or interim HC Darren Rizzi. None of those potential hires would get a higher grade than what I’ve assigned for Moore. Kafka is a similar but worse candidate to Moore, with not nearly as much play-calling experience. Weaver has built a reputation as a former player/leadership type but his resume has less-than-impressive on-field results. While Rizzi gave a spark as an interim and has the support of the locker room, history says most interims are bad bets to sustain success as full-time hires.
The post Grades For The 2025 NFL Coaching Hires appeared first on NFLTradeRumors.co.