Swing for the fences or play it safe?
The draft is an inexact science. Teams are trying to identify 20 year old college football players who will still be good when they’re 30 years old and playing in the NFL… oh, and those same kids are often going from being broke college students to overnight millionaires, which potentially has massive implications for where their motivation comes from. Easy, right?
But in the end, teams that get it right succeed and those that get it wrong don’t. In a “what have you done for me lately?” league, getting those questions right is what separates the employed front office and coaching personnel from those submitting their resumes in hopes of finding other work.
That dichotomy is what makes high variance prospects so interesting. If the prospect pans out, then the rewards flow. For example, quarterback Patrick Mahomes was once a risky prospect and now he’s set up Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid to be in the “best coach ever” conversation. Whiff on that pick and it’s time to start polishing off that resume. Just ask former New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh.
Every draft season has many high variance prospects. These are players with immense tools but not enough polish. This year, the most notable is possibly former Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe, whom I’ve written about before. In short, Milroe is among the best athletes that we’ve ever seen play quarterback, but his passing is thought to need some time to develop… if it ever does.
But this article isn’t really about Jalen Milroe. Rather, he’s just an example to ask a bigger question: how should teams weight potential v. projectability? Should they be taking the sure thing even though the ceiling might not be a franchise changing talent? Or should they swing for the fences and throw their job security to the fates with the hopes of finding “the guy” who brings the franchise to its renaissance?
I still don’t have an answer all these years later. As a fan, I’d love to see the team swing for the fences and hopefully set the franchise up for a dynasty run, but I also completely understand that my ability to feed my family isn’t dependent on the outcome and that taking easy profits on draft day can provide some security in a sport that often has so little.
So I ask you all, what should teams’ risk calculation reasonably be? Should they be prioritizing tantalizing talents who need refinement or taking the guys who might not have the same physical abilities but are likely to be at least be competent?