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Jets-Bills Preview: Will Buffalo Clinch AFC No. 2 Seed for Playoffs?

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Cole Bishop and Cam Lewis of the Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills’ dreams of chasing down the AFC’s No. 1 seed ended when the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day. NFL MVP favorite Josh Allen and Co. can still lock down the No.2 seed with a win over the New York Jets on Sunday.

Buffalo’s roster has been heavily banged up dating all the way back to training camp. That’s still true now heading into the penultimate game of the regular season. This week’s injury report features 16 players or 30.2 percent of the team’s 53-man roster. In turn, having the option to rest players in Week 18 could prove immensely valuable.

Meanwhile, New York is long eliminated from playoff contention, but that doesn’t mean its final two contests are meaningless. Most notably, quarterback Aaron Rodgers doesn’t sound ready to retire and may need to use these games to audition for another team since the Jets will probably move on after a failed campaign.

The Bills and Jets are scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday at Highmark Stadium. CBS will provide the television coverage.

Jets-Bills Game Preview and Score Prediction (Week 17)

X-Factors

Jets: WR Garrett Wilson

Wilson hasn’t been happy with his diminished role in the team’s offense. The third-year wide receiver appeared to take aim at Rodgers for his lack of recent targets after last week’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams, saying it wasn’t the fault of passing game coordinator Todd Downing.

“I’d like to be involved, love to make an impact on the game, but people see it differently,” Wilson told reporters. “That’s out of my control.”

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Wilson is still putting together a solid season. The 24-year-old Ohio State product has recorded 90 catches for 987 yards and six touchdowns. His involvement has declined since New York acquired Rodgers’ longtime friend, Davante Adams, in a midseason trade, though.

Adams is dealing with a hip injury, however, which may allow Wilson to reclaim his role as the unquestioned No. 1 option on Sunday. He’s a game-changing weapon who could create real problems for a Buffalo secondary that’s been struggling as of late, especially with double-digit targets.

The Jets were riddled with problems this season. In turn, it’s unlikely a bigger role for Wilson would have fundamentally changed the results. That said, focusing the aerial attack around Adams rather than one of the league’s rising stars didn’t help.

Bills: LB Matt Milano

Milano made his return in early December after 14 months on the sideline. The linebacker missed the latter stages of last season with a leg injury and then suffered a bicep injury during this year’s training camp. Those were the latest setbacks in an injury-riddled career.

The 30-year-old New York native was predictably rusty across his first three appearances. Then he suffered a groin injury that kept him out of the lineup last week. He’s on track to return against the Jets, but he’s running out of time to prove he’ll be ready to make a high-end impact in the playoffs.

It’s a tricky situation for the Bills. They only use two linebackers in their base defense. Terrel Bernard is locked into one starting spot. Dorian Williams was having a solid, albeit unspectacular, season filling in next to Bernard.

If Milano doesn’t show signs of improvement over the final two games, does Buffalo shift back to Williams as the playoff starter? It’s a tough call because Milano is a former All-Pro standout who can be a sideline-to-sideline stud. He’s simply not anywhere near that level right now, though.

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Looking ahead, Milano could also be a cap casualty in the offseason because the injuries have taken a cumulative toll. He’s enjoyed a terrific career with the Bills, so it would be unfortunate if his tenure ends with getting benched and cut. Alas, Buffalo may not have a choice.

Key Matchup

Jets DE Will McDonald IV vs. Bills OT Spencer Brown

McDonald must be a game-wrecker off the edge if the Jets are going to pull off an upset. The 2023 first-round pick endured an underwhelming rookie campaign, but he’s built a strong breakthrough season in 2024. He’s tallied a team-high 10 sacks in 15 games.

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The defensive end racked up two tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble in New York’s first meeting with Buffalo, a narrow 23-20 loss. Getting pressure off the edge is crucial every week. Doing it without allowing Allen to escape the pocket is the biggest key to beating the Bills.

At minimum, McDonald has proven himself as a key building block for the Jets’ future defense.

Brown is in the midst of his most complete season as a pro. He’s earned a 78.2 run-blocking grade and 75.2 pass-blocking grade from Pro Football Focus. His 72.4 overall grade ranks 35th among the league’s 135 eligible tackles.

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Penalties are the main reason his overall mark is lower than his blocking grades. The right tackle has been flagged 15 times in 14 games, with 12 of those penalties being accepted resulting in 95 lost offensive yards. It’s an area that must improve heading into the postseason.

For now, Brown needs to make sure McDonald remains in check because the Bills don’t want an already ailing Allen to take any extra hits this week.

Final Score Prediction: 28-21 Bills

It’s not getting much attention, but this is an important game for the Bills. The No. 2 seed would guarantee home-field advantage until a potential AFC Championship Game matchup with the Chiefs. Perhaps more importantly, Buffalo could rest its starters in Week 18.

The Bills have Super Bowl upside but the AFC is loaded with contenders. Getting back close to full strength for the start of the postseason. That’s especially true since the secondary, a strength for most of the year, has been decimated lately.

In addition, this week’s game may become Allen’s final chance to make his MVP case. He’d started to pull away in the race for a while, but the Baltimore Ravens‘ Lamar Jackson is making a late surge and will be fighting for the AFC North title next week.

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So the Bills would love a convincing, multi-score victory for a multitude of reasons.

Typically, that would be a virtual lock against a 4-11 opponent that’s more worried about draft position than winning games at this stage of the campaign. Not so much against an offense with a lot of playmakers and a quarterback in Rodgers with plenty to prove down the stretch.

That means the Bills could be caught up in a close game deep into the fourth quarter. While that’s good news for Allen’s chances of putting together a strong game to build his MVP case, it reduces the chances of getting the opportunity to rest starters.

Ultimately, Buffalo should find a way to pick up the win but don’t be shocked if it comes down to the final possession.

Main Photo: [Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle] – USA Today Sports

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