The National Football League (NFL) season is getting closer and closer as the NFL Draft wraps up and moves into rookie camps and Organized Team Activities (OTAs). The New York Jets are coming off a disappointing season filled with heavy expectations in 2023, thanks to the addition of Aaron Rodgers. The 39-year-old quarterback tore his Achilles on his second dropback of the season, ending the hype almost immediately. With Rodgers set to return and the Jets bringing back one of the best defenses in football, New York has more optimism than there has been in some time. Today, let’s look at their odds and what could happen in 2024.
Super Bowl Odds
According to Borgata Sportsbook, the Jets have the 12th-best odds to win the Super Bowl, just behind the Dolphins and Packers. In sports betting terms, New York has mediocre odds of winning its first championship since 1969, especially compared to the hype. However, according to Las Vegas, they are a fringe top-10 team, meaning they could reasonably make a run.
They have the 7th-best odds to win the American Football Conference (AFC), identical to the Dolphins, who were the #1 seed for much of last season.
AFC East Odds
While logic stands to reason that New York would have better odds to win the AFC East division, which has just four teams compared to the 16 teams they would have to beat to win the AFC outright, they may have worse odds in the division. Despite being a fringe top-10 betting odds team, they are arguably the 3rd best team in their division.
Despite losing Stefon Diggs and several other key contributors, the Buffalo Bills are the favorites to win the AFC East for a fifth straight season at -300. While the Jets are dead even with the Bills in AFC odds, the Dolphins are -275 to win the East compared to -165 for the Jets. In other words, the odds are not in New York’s favor to win the division.
What Could Go Right in 2024
Despite their long odds to win the division and the AFC, a lot could go right in 2024.
The Jets such long odds in the division because of their injury history. However, they have won seven games in each of the past two seasons with arguably the worst quarterback play in the league. If Rodgers can be average, it is easy to imagine the Jets getting to at least ten wins. With the Bills losing a lot of talent this offseason, the division could be more open than it has been.
The defense is also a unit in which the Jets can be confident. For the past two years, the Jets’ defense has been among the top units in yardage, only struggling in the points against the department last year thanks to a heavy load of turnovers from the offense. With Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams leading the way and defensive guru Robert Saleh at the helm, the defense figures to be a force to be reckoned with.
There is a lot to be excited about on the offensive side of the ball. If Rodgers is healthy, they should have better quarterback play than they have had in a year. That will dramatically improve the play of guys like Garrett Wilson at wide receiver, who’s crossed the 1,000-yard receiving mark in his first two NFL seasons. They are bringing back running back Breece Hall and adding Olu Fashanu at tackle in the draft to provide more protection for Rodgers.
What Could Go Wrong In 2024
To summarize quickly, a lot could go wrong. While there is plenty to be optimistic about, there are a lot of variables to consider for the Jets in 2024. For starters, Rodgers is 40 years old and has yet to produce at an elite level in over two years. His last season in Green Bay was sub-par, and recovering from an Achilles tear is hard enough for young players.
Also, the offensive line improved less than the fans would like to see. The Jets drafted Fashanu in the first round and still could add more depth before the season begins. The front office added Tyron Smith in free agency, an elite left tackle when healthy, but Smith has rarely been healthy in recent years. They also traded for Morgan Moses, who’s expected to start at right tackle.
Furthermore, defense is challenging to replicate. It is rare for defenses to maintain the same level of production year in and year out. For example, the 2017 Jaguars looked like a young, dominant defense set up for a long run of success. By 2019, that unit was all but broken up. The Jets need help from the offense to be a legitimate threat in the AFC.
What Is Next for the Jets?
Predicting what New York can do is only possible once they get on the field. Despite over a year of hype, we have yet to see the Jets playing at full strength with Rodgers under center. If he can play the position at a high level, they will have their shot to win the AFC East.
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