Quarterback Shedeur Sanders, baseball bat speed, and skill tradeoffs

Should the Jets consider Sanders at #7?

Recent reports seem to suggest that Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders might fall down draft boards a bit longer than expected.

For example, Fanduel recently altered their odds on Shedeur to have his over/under set at pick 8.5… which is notably after the New York Jets pick at 7.

So why is his draft stock falling? Well, in large part because of the sacks that he takes. Indeed, NFL/Jets insider Tony Pauline interviewed some NFL evaluators for an article recently and wrote the below.

One of Sanders’ biggest faults over the past two years, pointed out to me, and something easily witnessed on film, was the propensity to hold the ball too long and take too many sacks, and often bad sacks.

And while many will argue that Colorado fielded a terrible offensive line, which is true, people I spoke with were quick to point out that opponents rarely blitzed Sanders, yet the quarterback refused to get rid of the ball and was taking bad sacks.

Pauline also noted that Sanders’ mechanics could use work and that he didn’t rely enough on the short game. To that, I ask what the point of any of those concerns are when the guy is among the most accurate passers that college football has seen in recent years.

Beyond being an obvious benefit to a quarterback, that accuracy holds a ton of value if we’re projecting forward on what Sanders “could be” in time in relation to his tendency to take pressure. Specifically, while most quarterbacks need to get more accurate, Sanders is so accurate that he can afford to be less accurate and still be really, really, really accurate, which follows a basic premise that is being followed in baseball, a sport that I view as far more developmentally advanced than football.

For those of us that don’t follow baseball, the Boston Red Sox are currently on the rise. This is largely on the back of what many consider to be one of the finest hitting development programs in the league. Their hitting development philosophy boils down to two key elements:

1. Hit the ball hard
2. Hit the ball in the air

To complement that philosophy, the Red Sox have opted in recent years to acquire players who make a ton of contact but could stand to swing harder and with more intent to hit the ball in the air (and then they teach those players to do the latter 2 things). The reason they opt to acquire these players who make a ton of contact is because swinging harder and with a greater intention to hit it in the air typically lessens one’s contact rate. What the Red Sox have figured out is that if they ask a player who runs well above average contact rates to swing harder, the player’s contact rate still stabilizes in a good place, allowing the player to reap the rewards of their new swing. Think of it like this as a hypothetical:

• Swinging harder reduces contact rate by 6%
• A player who could stand to swing harder makes contact 10% more than league average
• Thus, if that players swings harder then they’d still make contact 4% more than league average
• Being 4% above league average is still quite good

So what’s all that got to do with Sanders? Well, he’s superbly accurate, as detailed in an article that I wrote a few weeks back. Part of avoiding sacks simply amounts to getting it out faster or off platform, which harms one’s accuracy. For Sanders, he’s so accurate that there is reason to think he can make those accuracy sacrifices and likely still be meaningfully more accurate than the average quarterback all the same.

This is a case where I see the current problem, but I don’t think that it’s a long-term problem. Every prospect has warts and this sure seems like a case where the warts can simply be reduced with some intentional coaching and a change in what Sanders is choosing to prioritize.

So, with that said, I’ll repeat what I’ve written previously because the point still stands:

Long story short, if Shedeur Sanders is available at #7 then the hardest question that the Jets should have to answer that night is what kind of champagne to pop when celebrating. Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth and take Shedeur if the opportunity presents.

Seriously Jets, no need to look a gift horse in the mouth here. Take the really accurate passer and let your quarterbacks coach earn his paycheck.