Stefon Diggs is heading out of Orchard Park, and the Jets are now the favorites in the AFC East if they stay healthy.
The Buffalo Bills are sending wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. ESPN’s Adam Schefter first reported the deal.
Compensation updates, per sources:
Bills receive 2025 second-round pick via Minnesota.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 3, 2024
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Jets Are AFC East Favorites After Diggs Trade
This deal is shocking, and a huge blow for the Bills. They also would take on a huge dead cap hit of $31,096,000 once the deal is finalized.
Last season, the AFC East did come down to the end of the season. Let’s also not forget, that despite injury issues and losing Aaron Rodgers four plays in, the Jets did finish 7-10.
The Jets have made a lot of risky “if they stay healthy” moves this offseason. They were likely to contend for a playoff spot, but now they are the AFC East favorites, despite the Bills still having Josh Allen.
What Chiefs Proved in 2023
Defense can still win championships. The Chiefs won the Super Bowl on the strength of their defense. Yes, Patrick Mahomes is a great quarterback — and quickly cementing himself as an all-time great — but last season the defense was the reason the Chiefs won the Super Bowl.
In 21 games, the Chiefs only stored 28+ points three times. They averaged 21.8 points per game (right at the league average), which was good for 15th in the NFL. The defense ranked second in the league in scoring, only allowing 17.3 points per game. This was despite a team net punt average of 41.9 (15th) and an average opponent starting field position of 28.6 (16th).
The Jets defense is one of the best in the league, and they have one of the best cornerback groups as well. If the pieces on offense stay healthy, the defense will be one of the most formidable in the NFL.
Is Josh Allen due for a regression?
Josh Allen had 30 touchdown passes in 2018-19 combined. Diggs arrived in 2020, and he’s averaged 34.25 TD per season since. That’s not only because Diggs is talented and catches a lot of touchdowns, but his presence opens up the offense for others.
According to Pro Football Reference, pass success rate equals gaining 40% of the yards needed on first down, 60% on second down, and 100% on third down. In 2018-19, Josh Allen’s success rate was 39.8%. In the four years with Stefon Diggs, it jumped to 52.1%.
The wide receiver class is deep in this year’s draft. However, that doesn’t mean there’s a Diggs-level receiver in the draft where the Bills will pick. Time will tell, but his passing numbers will likely regress, and he will need to be more reliant on his legs.
The Dolphins Defense is ok, the Patriots rebuilding
The Dolphins have a good offense, but their defense isn’t anything to write home about. With Rodgers at the helm with the weapons the Jets have, the Jets could attack this Dolphins defense and put a big number on the scoreboard.
The Patriots are clearly in rebuild mode, and they will not be division contenders for a couple of seasons. It’s going to take time, and the Jets are in win-now mode.
All of this adds up to the Jets being the favorites in the AFC East…for now. Injuries can alter this trajectory, however. That said, on paper, the Jets are the best team in the AFC East on April 3, 2024.
Main Photo: [Brian Fluharty] – USA Today Sports
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