After a shootout loss to Florida, the New Jersey Devils make a quick trip up to Ontario to play the Toronto Maple Leafs. Will the Devils be able to beat the Leafs this time? Are the Leafs good? Find all this and more with this preview of tonight’s matchup.
Tonight, the New Jersey Devils head to the center of the hockey world in Canada: Toronto.
The Time: 7:00 PM ET
The Broadcast: TV: MSGSN2; Audio: Devils Hockey Radio
The Matchup: The New Jersey Devils at the Toronto Maple Leafs
The Last Devils Game: The Devils hosted Florida on a national/streaming only broadcast. The first two periods combined for fewer than 20 shots on net. If you love defensive hockey, then you loved this game. The scoring did come in the third period. Jesper Boqvist broke ahead in the zone to finish a feed past Jacob Markstrom. Nico Hischier tied it up later with an attempted pass to Nathan Bastian going in off a Panther. Markstrom and Spencer Knight were in form and allowed nothing else. There were no other goals. Overtime solved nothing. A shootout – the first of the season for NJ – was needed. The Devils scored once (Paul Cotter), the Panthers scored twice (Bennett, Lundell). The 1-2 loss there yielded the final result of 1-2. Ian recapped the game here.
The Last Maple Leafs Game: Toronto hosted Dallas on Tuesday night. And this went worse for the Maple Leafs. The Devils evened up the defending champions and got a point. Toronto ate a decisive loss. Auston Matthews opened the scoring and that 1-0 lead would be Toronto’s only lead for about 4 minutes. Logan Stankoven scored his first goal in months to tie it up. Dallas pulled away with some PPGs. Mavrik Bourque got a deflection in the second period. Matt Duchene scored early in the third to convert a second PPG for the Stars. Stankoven got his second goal shortly after to put Toronto down 4-1. There was no comeback, they just lost.
The Last Devils-Maple Leafs Game: The Devils hosted Toronto on December 10. This was the game that began the run of games where the Devils held their opponents to fewer than 20 shots. Toronto was kept to 17 all game. The Devils did everything but score on Anthony Stolarz. Until Ondrej Palat did in the second period. The Devils handled the lead until a breakdown during a power play. A sweeping shot by Pontus Holmberg that Markstrom should’ve stopped led to the shorthanded equalizer in the third. Overtime was needed. Auston Matthews missed on 3 open shots in the game. He didn’t miss on a 4th in OT. He won it to hand the Devils a 1-2 OT loss. My recap of the game – admittedly salty as it was, especially at Markstrom – is here.
The Goal: Repeat the Florida performance in their own end of the rink. The Maple Leafs are able to split Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander on separate lines. With the Devils being on the road, this means the lines centered by Justin Dowling and Curtis Lazar could get in trouble. They didn’t on Tuesday albeit with more favorable matchups. The Devils did an excellent job keeping the Panthers to the outside for most of their shots. It was a team effort and arguably the best part of Tuesday’s game. If they can repeat most of that tonight, then they have a good chance at leaving Toronto with points.
The Mostly Expected Leafs Lineup: Per Mark Masters on X, the Leafs practiced with the following lines and pairings:
Forwards: Matthew Knies-Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner; Max Pacioretty-John Tavares-William Nylander; Bobby McMann-Max Domi-Matthew Robertson; Steven Lorentz-David Kampf-Pontus Holmberg; Extras: Connor Dewar, Ryan Reaves
Defensemen: Jake McCabe-Brandon Tanev; Morgan Reilly-Philippe Myers; Oliver Ekman-Larsson-Conor Timmins; Extras: Simon Benoit-Jani Hakanpaa
Goalies: Joseph Woll, Denis Hildeby
However, shortly after Masters posted that, he posted that John Tavares got hurt during a power play drill and left practice. Per the head coach via Masters, Tavares was under evaluation. It is unknown if he will play tonight. It is also unknown if Jake McCabe will play, although Berube seemed more confident just by stating he was fine in practice per Masters. To that end, expect some changes at forward if Tavares cannot go.
Of note is that Anthony Stolarz is out injured. He was the goalie that, well, goalied the Devils in an epic fashion in the last Devils-Maple Leafs. The Devils saw Hildeby in their home opener back in October. Joseph Woll would be the third and final goalie the Devils would see from Toronto in the regular season if he is indeed tonight’s starter.
The Mostly Expected Devils Lineup: Did you like the lines from the shootout loss to Florida? If so, here they are again. Amanda Stein reported from Wednesday’s practice that the Devils used the same set-up:
Forwards: Ondrej Palat-Jack Hughes-Jesper Bratt; Timo Meier-Nico Hischier-Tomas Tatar; Paul Cotter-Justin Dowling-Dawson Mercer; Kurtis MacDermid-Curtis Lazar-Nathan Bastian
Defensemen: Brenden Dillon-Dougie Hamilton; Jonas Siegenthaler-Jonathan Kovacevic; Luke Hughes-Brett Pesce
Goalies: Jacob Markstrom, Jake Allen
I am not a huge fan of a second go-around for Tatar on the Hischier line. Given the team struggling for most of the Florida game to attack on top of scoring, I think Sheldon Keefe and his staff could afford to mix up the forwards. Maybe give Timo Meier some looks with Bratt, or swap Palat and Tatar, or something. However, Keefe has been fortunate enough to be able to use the same lineup for most of this season and so that is what should be expected.
However, some news came last night out of Utica. Ben Birnell of the Rome Sentinel reported that Jason Shaya reported on the radio that Brian Halonen of the Comets was called up. That explained his absence in Utica’s 7-3 beat down of Hartford. Halonen has led Utica in goals and points. The 26-year old winger has demonstrated that he can be “gritty” and has had a cup of coffee with New Jersey before. As pure speculation, I would guess Halonen would play in place of MacDermid. Not a lot as a fourth liner, but enough such that Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, and Meier will not have to be double-shifted as much given that MacDermid is limited to single-digit shifts when he does dress. It is an understandable move.
Is Toronto Good or Great or What? On paper, you could argue that the Devils and Maple Leafs are not too different. Both have earned about 62% of the points so far this season. Both are carried hard by their top two scoring lines. I would argue the Devils’ talent level is deeper and younger, but the Leafs have made cap-maximization into an art as they have regularly attempted to contend for championships. Toronto has beaten New Jersey twice this season and will look to do it again. For what Toronto has going on, they are still playing an 82-game season and therefore have drops in play that yield in results like Tuesday’s 4-1 loss to Dallas, Saturday’s 3-0 loss to the Vancouver Quinn Hughes Canucks, and last Thursday’s 6-3 loss to Carolina. A loss tonight would mean a four game losing streak for them and further risk of losing their hold on the Atlantic Division lead. So they have the incentive to sweep the season series tonight.
The one thing really in favor of Toronto, outside of the Core Four, is their goaltending. As a team, their 5-on-5 save percentage of 92.43% is the fourth best in the NHL and the best in the East per Natural Stat Trick. Stolarz trails only Connor Hellebuyck among regularly playing goalies in overall save percentage with a 92.7% this season. Woll, tonight’s expected starter, has not been as impressive but a 90.8% overall save percentage. That puts him tied with John Gibson, behind Lukas Dostal and Marc-Andre Fleury, and just ahead of Igor Shesterkin. This means that Woll may do well tonight and you should not be so shocked if/when that happens.
Having strong goaltender play can make up some issues and I would say that is true for the 2024-25 Maple Leafs. Their 5-on-5 numbers as a team are not so impressive as per Natural Stat Trick. They are about the same with the Devils in terms of actual goal scoring rates. The Devils are currently at 2.4 goals per 60 minutes and the Leafs are a touch better at 2.46 goals per 60 minutes. Both the Devils and Leafs allow 2.1 goals per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 play. However, the expected goals model shows that the Devils are attacking and defending such that they are expected to score 2.76 goals per 60 minutes and allow 2.23 goals per 60 minutes. The Leafs, on the other hand, are expected to score 2.45 and allow 2.47 goals per 60 minutes. While I know expected goals do not win games, they do point to how a team performs. The Devils have been good about out-performing their opposition. The Leafs, not so much. They allow about as many attempts, shots, scoring chances as they generate. The difference in actual goals: there’s your goaltending advantage. This is a concern for those expecting Toronto to compete for anything beyond the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
There are other concerns. Depth is one. By pure production alone, there’s the Core Four of Marner (60 points in 45 games), Nylander (44 points in 45 games), Tavares (42 points in 44 games), and Matthews (32 points in 30 games), and then everyone else has 27 or fewer points. Stopping Marner, Nylander, and Matthews is easier said than done. But limiting them does help the cause in beating Toronto since only Matthew Knies (who plays with Marner and Matthews) and McMann have double digit-goals outside of the Core Four. Another concern is the power play. While the Devils’ power play has gone cold with conversions, the Leafs have never been all that hot. Their conversion rate of 20.3% is below the league median. Their rates of generating shots, attempts, and expected goals is around or below the league median as well. Should Tavares be unable to play tonight, then that is one fewer potential scorer for the Toronto power play (and in general) that could use a boost. The Devils still will not have the benefit of the last change but it should help in the match-up game.
At least Toronto’s penalty kill has been very good. The team’s success rate is in the top-ten in the league and right behind the Devils (82.7%) at 82.5% this season. Their on-ice rates in shorthanded situations prove that they are not just being carried by Woll, Stolarz, and Hildeby for them. Their PK works quite well. Those hoping the Devils power play will get going may need to wait until the weekend.
Overall, this is a Toronto team that reads as good but not great. They may be in first place in the Atlantic right now, but I feel it is a matter of time before Florida catches them. Fittingly, Toronto has a good record at home at 17-9-0. Which rates 11th in the NHL in point percentage and just ahead of the Devils’ home record, in fact. Good but not great. Is it an easy game for the Devils? Absolutely not. But it is not as if they are taking on Carolina, Washington, or Tampa Bay. Then again, the Devils have wins over those teams as opposed to Toronto. So we shall see.
Does Toronto Take Calls At Home?: Actually, yes. They are tied for the fifth most times shorthanded at home this season with 67. Granted, Toronto has played in more home games than Boston and Montreal so it is not a totally even. But the numbers suggest that they are good for a couple of trips to the box at home. Again, the Toronto penalty kill has been very good outside of the Dallas game. I would not expect the Devils power play to go off and score a bunch, as much as I would appreciate it. I would expect the referees to make some calls. That is all.
One Thing I Would Like to See: I would like to see Jesper Bratt shoot. Since Christmas, Bratt has 16 shots in 9 games. Even Ondrej Palat has more shots than Bratt. It is not that Bratt has been entiely ineffective. The six points in nine games is second only to The Big Deal on the team. But if you want to see the Devils get going on the scoreboard, then you need more players to shoot. Bratt has the puck on his stick enough to make it happen. He just needs to be a bit more selfish and do so. And doing so may help take some of the pressure off Jack Hughes doing as much as he has done recently. As well as any of the worry of needing Palat to finish. Yes, he has four goals since Christmas but he has also two agonizing misses on what could have been game-winning goals (San Jose, Florida).
One Final Thought: The Devils may have struggled in this month so far, but they are going into this game with a three-game point streak. Being able to get a result tonight into this weekend’s pair of games would set them up nicely. Plus, it will add to the pressure on Toronto.
Your Take: The Devils will take on Toronto for the final time this season. Do you think the Devils will win this one? Can the Devils crack Joseph Woll? Can they limit Marner, Matthews, and Nylander? Can the Devils’ top players pull ahead? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about this game in the comments. Thank you for reading.