This post previews the upcoming first round playoff series between the New Jersey Devils and the Carolina Hurricanes in the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. This preview covers as much as possible from players to coaches to stats to history and more.
After missing the playoffs outright in 2023-24, the New Jersey Devils succeeded in 2024-25 to go back to the playoffs. However, after an amazing first half of the season, the team’s performance and results fell off a cliff from Christmas 2024 onward to the end of the season. As a result, the Devils ended up banking enough points to clinch a playoff spot by their 78th game of the season. It also meant that they would finish third in the Metropolitan Division and faceoff with second place in the Metropolitan Division. That would be a familiar foe and a difficult matchup for most in the league: the Carolina Hurricanes.
It would be easy to state that the New Jersey Devils are underdogs in this matchup. It would also be correct. However, all is not lost for the Devils. The game is indeed played on the ice and not on paper. Anything can happen in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. With this nearly comprehensive series preview, one can find areas where the Devils could excel to turn this series in their favor.
The Matchup and The Series Schedule
The Matchup: The New Jersey Devils (3rd in Metropolitan Division, 42-33-7, 91 points) vs. the Carolina Hurricanes (2nd in Metropolitan Division, 47-30-5, 99 points)
The Series Schedule: From NHL.com. For the first round, there will be a local broadcast and a national broadcast for the first four games. Games 5 through 7 will be determined as they are necessary. If you prefer hearing Matt Loughlin and Glenn “Chico” Resch, the Devils Radio Network is covering all seven games.
- Game 1 – Devils at Carolina: Sunday, April 20, 3 PM ET – MSGSN, ESPN, SN, SN360, TVAS
- Game 2 – Devils at Carolina: Tuesday, April 22, 6 PM ET – MSGSN, ESPN, SN360, TVAS 2
- Game 3 – Devils vs. Carolina: Friday April 25, 8 PM ET – MSGSN, TBS, MAX, SN360, TVAS 2
- Game 4 – Devils vs. Carolina: Sunday, April 27, 3:30 PM ET – MSGSN, TBS, truTV for overrun, MAX, SN, SN360, TVAS
- Game 5 (if necessary) – Devils at Carolina: Tuesday, April 29 – Broadcast to be determined
- Game 6 (if necessary) – Devils vs. Carolina: Friday, May 2 – Broadcast to be determined
- Game 7 (if necessary) – Devils at Carolina: Sunday, May 4 – Broadcast to be determined.
There are no back-to-back games at all, which is great. What is not so great is that Carolina has home ice. Carolina finished their season with a home record of 31-9-1. Only two other teams in the NHL finished with 30 or more wins at home. What is odd is the 6 PM ET start time on a Tuesday but it is what it is. When will the actual puck drop will be may be after these times given national coverage.
The Song of the Series: Playoff hockey is inherently anxiety-inducing and nerve-wracking. Even when your favorite team has a commanding lead in the series, you just know nothing is actually over until the series is actually over. The Devils-Hurricanes series is likely going to be filled with forechecking pressure, worry over whether the Devils can handle that pressure, and concern if they can hit back. Evoking this kind of intense anxiety in music is tough, but the instrumental to Danny Brown’s “Ain’t It Funny?” from his 2016 album Atrocity Exhibition absolutely nails the feeling for this series and playoff hockey as a whole.
For those who want something more positive, let’s just say the crews will show up in the Gamethreads.
The Executive Summary
The standard and cliche approach for underdog teams in a playoff matchup is to rely on the goaltender getting hot, out-performing the opposition on special teams, scoring opportunistically as much as possible, and keeping it close in between. This approach would be the one the Devils would need to follow to beat Carolina presuming that the Hurricanes play as they have been for years. It is also the areas where Carolina came up short in their recent playoff exits. It is also the definition of “easier said than done” especially when you consider the last three months and change of New Jersey Devils hockey. As much as I wish it wasn’t so, Carolina is the clear favorite in this series. And I fear New Jersey may fall to the mighty Hurricane forecheck as they did two years ago.
The History
The 2024-25 Season Series: The two teams played four times in this season. The home team won each game and so New Jersey and Carolina split the series at 2-2-0 each.
- Game 1 – October 15, 2024: Devils at Carolina, Devils lost 2-4.
- Game 2 – November 21, 2024: Devils vs. Carolina, Devils won 4-2.
- Game 3 – December 27, 2024: Devils vs. Carolina, Devils won 4-2.
- Game 4 – December 28, 2024: Devils at Carolina, Devils lost 2-5.
It is tempting to disregard the games played between the two teams since it happened over three months ago. Much has changed with both teams since they last played each other. I disagree. In fact, the Devils would be very wise to re-watch the tape of their win in November against Carolina. The Devils managed to hold a high-shooting Carolina team to just 22 shots. That would be among the fewest they had in their season. How?
Carolina’s forecheck was defused in that game. The Devils made a point of it to get the Hurricane skaters moving east-west and beating any pressure with diagonal passes within and out of their own zone. By keeping them from going right at the Devils defenders, those extra pucks they try to win for closer shooting opportunities were not there. If the Devils want to distrupt a major component of Carolina’s 5-on-5 play, then they will need to try to repeat what they did in November at the Rock against them. Unfortunately, that is easier said than done as it did not really happen in the December games.
Since the Season Series Games…: It has been a tale of two seasons. For the Devils, they have disappointed and suffered significant injuries. Nico Hischier missed most of January. Jacob Markstrom was out from late January to early March. An injury to Jonas Siegenthaler forced him out of action until the season’s end. Dougie Hamilton’s leg got caught up in Dallas and he has been out since. The Big Deal, Jack Hughes, careened shoulder first into the endboards and he is done for the season after having surgery. All the while, the Devils went from being one of the league’s best 5-on-5 teams into having one of the more punchless offenses in the league. They have dropped games to teams as bad as Boston as they have been mid all the way from January 1 to April 16. Good enough to get into the playoffs based on how much they won in 2024. Not good enough to inspire confidence going into the playoffs. And the team certainly did not get significantly better from the trade deadline.
For the Hurricanes, they have been bolder in trying to go for it. They have been fairly successful from the end of December through to mid-April. They have had hot streaks. With New Jersey flailing, they flipped spots in the division. Carolina could not close the gap with Washington. And the Hurricanes have had their own off nights and poor performances to make one wonder about them. However, their big move was a three-team trade in January to try to push the Hurricanes as contenders. They sent Martin Necas and Jack Drury to Colorado, Chicago retained salary on Mikko Rantanen, and Carolina acquired Rantanen and Taylor Hall. The Hurricanes added one of the top scorers of the last several years and a former Hart trophy winner to jack up their offensive depth. Hall has worked out. Unfortunately, Rantanen did not. He was not performing well in 13 games, he was surprised he was traded at all by Colorado amid contract extension talks, and he was not willing to sign in Carolina. So Carolina dealt Rantanen to Dallas for Logan Stankoven and picks on the NHL Trade Deadline day. While Stankoven may end up being a prototypical Hurricane forward and both Hall and Mark Janikowski (acquired from Nashville for a fifth) have fit in well, the Canes lost Necas and Rantanen since they last played the Devils. Their offense remains a force, but that is some major talent lost. Carolina still pushed on to lock up a playoff spot and second in the division to secure home ice for this matchup. But one wonders if these moves hurt their chances this season.
The Playoff History: Before 2001, the Devils had no playoff history with Carolina or their previous home in Hartford. Then they faced off four times in the 2000s before meeting for a fifth time in 2023. Carolina has historically prevailed between the two; the Devils are 1-4 against the Hurricanes.
- 2001: First round, 4-2, Devils series win.
- 2002: First round, 2-4, Carolina series win.
- 2006: Second round, 1-4, Carolina series win.
- 2009: First round, 3-4, Carolina series win and yes, I was at that Game 7. You can read the posts from back then about that series here.
- 2023: Second round, 1-4, Carolina series win. I summarized the series in a May month in review. You can also read the posts from back then about that series here as well.
After the Game 5 loss to Carolina, I wrote several lessons that the Devils should learn from the series. Many were captured by the idea that the Canes just beat up the Devils. GM Tom Fitzgerald was one of them. With the playoff miss in 2023-24, he felt empowered to make this team beefier, more experienced, and grittier – despite that they were three things that did not really matter in that 2023 series against Carolina. The Devils were soundly beaten by a team fully committed to a system of hockey the Devils had no answer for then. Yet, Fitzgerald did not heed that lesson. In came Brenden Dillon, Paul Cotter, Stefan Noesen, Jonathan Kovacevic, an extension for Kurtis MacDermid, and, I suppose, a greener light to throw the body around. Sheldon Keefe replaced Lindy Ruff as head coach and the rush-them-down offense was slowed down for something more methodical. This was actually added during the season with Brian Dumoulin. Did it make the Devils any better? The 5-on-5 on-ice rates and record of 18-20-4 since January 1, 2025 say no. Did it make the Devils any more likely to handle a fast team that throws lots of pucks at opponents and forechecks aggressively to generate more offense? Maybe since the Devils did beat Carolina twice at home – but the many games since January 1, 2025 suggest that speedy, aggressive-on-the-puck teams could be a real problem for New Jersey.
Contrast that with Carolina. They have not changed much at all since 2023. Carolina may have not prevailed in the playoffs since beating the Devils in 2023 (they were eliminated by Florida in 2023 and lost in the first round in 2024 to Our Hated Rivals), but they have remain committed to this style of play. Even after GM Don Waddell was fired and GM Eric Tulsky – a true opposite to Traditional Hockey Man Fitzgerald – took over, the Canes way remained. Carolina remains as a team that can almost swap out players to buy in to Rod Brind’Amour’s way of hockey and still be a total pain to play against. No more Pesce or Noesen? Fine, here is Jalen Chatfield to step up and Jackson Blake to help fill in the gaps. Guentzel walked to Tampa Bay? OK, the team will still out-shoot opponents like it is going out of style. Even with swinging and ultimately whiffing on Rantanen, the team picked up a useful forward to plug and play in their system and continues to just give teams problems when they are committed to the game.
Since the 2023 series, the Devils are quite different from what they were then while the Hurricanes play pretty much the same despite some personnel changes. This playoff series will ultimately show which approach worked out.
The Forwards
The Devils: If only The Big Deal did not careen into the endboards in Las Vegas shoulder-first. That injury led to surgery and being out for the season. His offensive skills have been dearly missed for three reasons. One, any team who loses a player with 27 goals and 70 points in 62 games is worse off for losing that production. Especially so as The Big Deal was a strong play driver in this season (and in past ones too). Two, The Big Deal’s tendency to skate around the zone and handle pucks may draw criticisms from those who think he is just hotdogging and grandstanding. But its purpose is to draw defenders away from their structure and, in theory, open up passing and shooting lanes that a traditional offense would not find. The Hurricanes typically play man-on-man in their own zone so that skill would be very useful. The Devils have one fewer player who can do that and Jack Hughes was the best one on the team who does it. Three, Jack Hughes being out means others on the depth chart have to step up to fill his minutes. This has led Sheldon Keefe and his staff to ice a competent on-paper and on-ice first line, a somewhat questionable second line, and a bottom six that has seen players shuffle in and out of the lineup due to no one playing well enough to get those minutes consistently. The Big Deal’s absence is exactly that for those three reasons. It absolutely hurts the cause for this matchup.
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Unfortunately, we cannot unspill the milk and the Devils will just have to deal. In fairness, they have some top forwards here. Nico Hischier has managed to be a very fine all-three-zone player and end up leading the team in goals with those efforts. He will likely draw the tough matchups at the Rock and Sheldon Keefe will try to get them in Carolina. Jesper Bratt is one of the league’s most productive wingers and will often be involved in whatever scoring offense the Devils can generate. Timo Meier has underproduced for most of the season but he has picked it up in March points-wise and he has been a very prolific shooter all season. Especially at driving the net as Meier is one of the league’s most prolific generators of individual high danger chances. All three have been positive in 5-on-5 play and they will need to be. Those are name brand forwards and the ones expected to lead the way for New Jersey up front.
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Beyond them, the forward group becomes less and less impressive going down the depth chart. Stefan Noesen put up a career year in points, created nearly as many high danger chances himself as Meier, and was a part of one of the league’s top power play units. Yet, he was not on that primary unit in March and his PPG on April 15 was his first since February 23. One can only hope he gets going; perhaps he is reunited with Hischier. Dawson Mercer has struggled to establish himself in a consistent role. He does enter the playoffs with three goals in his last two games so he can feel good about that. Ondrej Palat and Erik Haula have the veteran presence but they have been detrimental on the ice more often than not. For the former, it is hard to believe that a “switch” will be flipped for him in the playoffs based 77 games of him playing. We can only hope otherwise. For the latter, it was to a point where an acquired Cody Glass outshined him immediately since joining the Devils. Glass has been quite good in limited minutes; arguably the best of the bottom six. Paul Cotter throws lots of hits and occasionally busts out a flashy move for a shot. Otherwise, he does not generate much other than penalties. The best you can say about Justin Dowling, Nathan Bastian, Curtis Lazar, and Tomas Tatar is that opponents are not flooding the Devils with offense when they are out there – but the Devils somehow create even less so the best case is a push. Daniel Sprong has sparks of offensive creation but just that.
What this makes the Devils is a team heavily reliant on their top forwards to create offense, much less produce points on the boards. A problem made worse without Jack Hughes. If someone other than Bratt, Hischier, and Meier can produce and create offense in 5-on-5 situations, then the Devils would be that much better for it in this series. As it stands and as the People Who Matter have seen for the last three months and change, I am not holding my breath.
The Hurricanes: The Hurricanes benefited from a hot start from Martin Necas to start the season. However, GM Eric Tulsky was willing to move him for a superstar scorer in Mikko Rantanen. Which did not work out so Rantanen was sent to Dallas for Logan Stankoven. What this means is that the top end of Carolina’s forwards did get worse as the season went on. It also did not help that Andrei Svechnikov struggled with 20 goals and 48 points in 72 games. The major producers still on Carolina are Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis. And they are quite good on the puck; they are actual offensive threats. Still, it is just two players.
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That is not what gives Carolina the edge at this position. If anything, it better explains why they swung big for Rantanen in the first place. Carolina does not have a lot of glaring needs among their forwards except a top scorer that could really put this team’s offense over the top. Even so, the team’s current forward group is a very committed score-and-attack by committee.
The Hurricanes way to attack is to shoot, forecheck hard to win the puck back, and attack from there. All four lines do this. Everyone from Aho and Jarvis to William Carrier and Tyson Jost does this. It is how opponents tend to get the ice tilted against them. Carolina does not want the other team to get relief so all four lines go for it. This also has the result of the offense coming from many different sources. Even if NJ shuts down Aho and Jarvis, then they have to worry about Jordan Staal (who is still a match-up veteran two-way force) and Jordan Martinook on another line. Or Jack Roslovic, who has one of the quieter 20+ goal campaigns in this league. Or Taylor Hall and Jackson Blake (who has amazing on-ice rates). Or a hot-shooting Mark Janikowski on a fourth line. Or Stankoven, who may have been born to forecheck for Brind’Amour. Carolina scores by committee with a positive definition of “by committee.” If they are not scoring, they are generally tilting the ice in Carolina’s favor.
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And if that’s not enough, these forwards backcheck very well. Carolina plays man-on-man in their own end, so forwards have to defend on this team. Staal may be the “shutdown” center but Aho and Jarvis can defend quite well if the matchups end up being power for power. If there is a quirk among them, then it is in that how opponents have somehow out-scored the Canes by a good margin when Aho, Svechnikov, Roslovic, Carrier, and Stankoven are on the ice. It is odd since their on-ice rates are so, so favorable. I am inclined to fault the goaltender than claiming that there is something at forward the Devils can exploit.
Carolina may be one top scorer away of having one of the best forward groups in the NHL. They will just have to settle for being ruthlessly efficient and causing matchup issues in the interim.
Who’s Better: Carolina. I believe and argue that New Jersey has the best individual forwards in Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt. It’s the depth of Carolina and their committment to their systems that easily puts the Hurricane forwards over the top.
The Defensemen
The Devils: The Devils blueline for the first half of the season had a high-event, high-offense pairing of Dougie Hamilton and Brenden Dillon; a rock-solid defensive pairing of Jonas Siegenthaler and Johnathan Kovacevic; and stunningly good at both ends pairing of Brett Pesce and Luke Hughes. This largely continued, even if the performances slumped a bit in January, until Siegenthaler’s injury in Pittsburgh back on February 4. I described that moment as when the Devils’ performances really fell off a cliff. It did not get much better when Hamilton got hurt in Dallas on March 4. As with The Big Deal, the issue was not just in losing the talent themselves but their absence meant others had to play more minutes. The Pesce-Hughes pairing had to take on more minutes for better and sometimes worse as they took on tougher competition with those minutes. Dillon struggled without Hamilton. And call ups of Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey were not great at all in the run of play, Casey’s points notwithstanding.
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As it turned out, as much as the trade was not welcomed, Brian Dumoulin has done the job of filling in one of the gaps on defense. Often next to Kovacevic, the on-ice rates showed that the pairing was effective. It also helps that Dumoulin does not take penalties unlike the PIM leader that was Kovacevic. The Devils got a welcomed return by the final game of the season when Hamilton returned to the lineup. Despite his own issues, Hamilton is a massive upgrade over Nemec, Casey, and an acquired Cholowski. His return is just in time for this playoff series to boost the blueline. Jonas Siegenthaler has been skating but he has yet to take contact so it is unknown if he will be available, much less effective, for this series. If he can, that would be huge as his 1.92 xGA/60 rate is an outstanding rate to put up for 55 games. It reflects his shutdown nature. Still, the previous blueline that was performing quite well is almost restored in full.
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This does not mean the blueline does not have its own issues. Speed is definitely a problem. Kovacevic and Pesce are not slow but they can and have been caught on pinches and struggle to catch up. Hamilton struggles on rush defense if he has to track back and he is certainly not the swiftest of skaters either. Dumoulin and Dillon are slow. Only Luke Hughes can reliably recover on defense with his skating. Just as much as he is the only one to reliably move around the offensive zone without being caught out. Offense is also limited to just Luke Hughes and Hamilton both in power play and 5-on-5 situations. The other defensemen more or less try to support the forwards by moving the puck up and keeping it in. But expecting shots, much less production, from the group has been a struggle. Given the state of the forwards beyond the top players, two-thirds of the defense cannot really help them attack all that much.
Regardless, the Devils blueline has proven to be capable defenders and their depth is not even close to a drop off like the forwards. They can defend. A returning Hamilton means Keefe and his staff will not need to be forced to dress a struggling Nemec, Casey, or Cholowski against a fearsome forward group like Carolina. However, Siegenthaler is missed on the back end and the group really could use more speed and offense. Something Nemec or Casey may provide one day but not in April 2025.
The Hurricanes: The Hurricanes blueline is very good and what they do is hard. Carolina plays man-on-man defense in their own end and it is expected for Hurricane defensemen to support the forecheck and offense without pinching in too deep to get caught outnumbered in the back. It is demanding but the Hurricane defenders make it work.
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Some make it look real easy. Jaccob Slavin may not put up big numbers like Makar or Werenski or Quinn Hughes, but he is arguably among the best in the world at playing defense for as much as he does and as cleanly as he does. Dmitry Orlov and Sean Walker were excellent acquisitions as they have fit Carolina’s system very well. Walker was a surprise if only for his large amount of individual scoring chances (117). Jalen Chatfield was brought up in it and he has done very well. He will definitely get more respect the longer he performs like this in Carolina. The coaching staff still believes in Brent Burns and given his extensive work on the PK, he clearly has something left in the tank despite his production dropping hard for a third straight season. They take minutes to allow someone like Shayne Gostisbehere to be more of an offensive specialist who can be sheltered.
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Is there a weak link among their primary six defensemen? It may be Gostisbehere. He takes a lot of calls and his on-ice rates are suspect given how sheltered his minutes have been. Given how much he plays on the power play, Brind’Amour may not be inclined to replace him. It may end up being Sean Walker, who has had a strong season himself but he is a penalty risk. Perhaps it is Brent Burns, who still plays a lot but could be diminishing returns out there. This matters because Rod Brind’Amour just received a new option to put out on the blueline.
Welcome the X-Factor in this playoff series and someone the Hurricanes are very excited about: Alexander Nikishin. He arrived in Raleigh on Friday. The Hurricanes did not just work as hard as they did to sign him and bring him over from SKA St. Petersburg to just eat nachos with other scratched players. Nikishin is not just a mere prospect either. He was second on SKA in scoring and averaged over 24 minutes per game in the season (and over 29 per game in the playoffs!) as one of their top defensemen. In a league loaded with veterans and guys who left the NHL or wanted a tougher league in Europe, it is rare for young players to get regular minutes. Possibly rarer on traditional powerhouses like SKA. Nikishin was too good to keep down in the depth chart. He has been leading their blueline from ages 21 through 23. The NHL is a different game and the playoffs are even crazier. But Nikishin has the talent to step in right away and perform, not unlike Luke Hughes in 2023. Whether he fits Carolina’s style right away is another question. I think he will in time and when he does, look out. He is large, he is strong in both ends, and he moves very well. Nikishin is absolutely a part of Carolina’s future on defense. Is he a part of their present? That remains to be seen. Especially since that would require someone coming out of the lineup to put him in. Perhaps 11-7 is an option, although I do not think Carolina has went with that all that much in 2024-25.
Who’s Better: Carolina. This is a closer call than the forward group. I may be inclined to pick NJ with a healthy Siegenthaler playing as he did earlier in the season. But he is not healthy and so this is what is there..
The Goaltenders
The Devils: The Devils went big-game hunting in the offseason and got their goalie in Jacob Markstrom. The numbers may not seem impressive for Markstrom. What had happened was that Markstrom was injured on January 22. He returned in March and struggled through the month to get back into some kind of form. He found some of it towards the end of March. Still, that sank his numbers from what was otherwise quite good prior to the injury. Since Keefe has started Markstrom more since he was available to play, it is expected that he is the starter. It is a risk given how poor he has been at times since returning to action. If it pays off though, then the Devils may have more than a theoretical chance in this series.
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Should things go awry with Markstrom, the Devils do have a viable backup option in Jake Allen. Allen has not only the better numbers for the season, but he had arguably the best performance between the pipes on March 17 in Columbus for the whole season. Allen is a veteran like Markstrom and the playoffs will not faze him whatsoever. He can perform quite well when called upon, and that is all a team needs in the postseason. It is a question as to whether Keefe is willing to go to Allen if Markstrom falters early like Lindy Ruff did in 2023 with putting Akira Schmid in for Vitek Vanecek against Our Hated Rivals. The bigger question is whether either Markstrom or Allen will be great – not good, great – enough to weather the potential storm surges of offense from the Hurricanes for a series.
The Hurricanes: Carolina is heading into this series with a tandem of Pytor Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen. By the stats, this is the weakest part of the Carolina lineup. Neither goaltender posted an overall save percentage above 90%. Neither goalie had a positive goals saved above average value in 5-on-5 situations or in all situations. For a team that has been eliminated in part due to the goaltending not coming through, it seems odd that Carolina stuck with this tandem.
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It is possible that their talent will shine through. Andersen missed a large part of this part season with knee surgery. He did recover to finish this season with 22 games played. When he returned in January, Andersen only played in 18 games. That seems to indicate that Kochetkov is the starter. But the veteran has past experience to hold the crease as necessary. Kochetkov has been groomed to be Carolina’s main goalie and the team was successful with him playing in 47 games. However, Kochetkov’s stats suggest that the team could have won even more if he stopped more pucks. I will say this: Both Canes goaltenders have been better at high-danger chances and in shorthanded situations. The issue is that the Devils tend to generate more medium-danger chances and the Devils power play is rather good. For what Carolina does at 5 on 5, the goaltending has been good enough in the season. And that’s fine but if the playoffs go awry again, the repeated goaltenders from 2023-24 will be a point of contention. GM Eric Tulsky may have to do something about it if it comes to that.
Post-Script: I did not include them but if NJ has to go to Nico Daws or Carolina needs to bring up Dustin Tokarski, Yaniv Perets, or Spencer Martin, then this is a wash.
Who’s Better: The Devils. Even with Markstrom’s post-injury struggles, he finished with better numbers than both Hurricane goalies. Allen has the better numbers over all four goalies. We could see all four get some minutes in this series, but the Devils have an edge at this position.
The 5-on-5 Play
The chart pretty much says it all. To be fair, the against on-ice rates for the Devils are pretty good. It is the offensive rates that are bad. Keep in mind that this is for the whole season so this does include the excellent first half of the Devils’ season. Regardless, the Hurricanes have dominated the majority of these numbers for a reason. The only odd one out is a surprisingly high high-danger chance allowed rate and a high allowance of goals allowed in 5-on-5 (read: goaltending). With that aside, they are a superb 5-on-5 hockey team.
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Who’s Better: Carolina. Easy.
The Power Play
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The Devils: What should worry Carolina the most is that the New Jersey Devils power play has continued to be a threat without Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, and even Stefan Noesen from the primary unit. Look at the power play subsection for the By the Numbers in the March month in review. The power play, by its design, has been very effective for New Jersey. Oh, and Hamilton is back and the coaches can put Noesen back in front of the crease for the main unit at anytime. They can and likely will join Bratt, Hischier, and Meier (Jack Hughes’ replacement on the primary unit) as the main five-man unit for man advantages. A secondary unit can be boosted with Luke Hughes joining that unit as well.
What makes New Jersey’s 1-3-1 formation power play so effective is that they rotate enough to create different looks. They’re not beholden to a particular shot or play. They are not standing still or occupying five static zones. One entry may lead to looks for a seam pass. One may lead to a shot from the point to create chaos in front. One may be a drive to the net. The results are a team power play performance that is among the league’s best in generating attempts, shots, and scoring chances on top of a very high conversion rate. For a series where Carolina is expected to control much of the 5 on 5 play, this power play can give the Devils the offensive break they need in addition to the goals they really need.
The Devils’ flaws with their power play is that it is pretty much reliant on that primary power play unit and that drawing calls can be a challenge if/when their offense struggles in 5-on-5. That is the flaw with a lot of power plays in the NHL though. With this being the playoffs, expecting the referees to make a call ends up being not met, with or without outrage. Yes, the Canes have drawn more calls but as you will see in the penalty kill section, they have taken more too. Ah, NHL Game Management. That aside: As good as the Hurricanes are on the penalty kill (and they really are), this is one aspect of the game where New Jersey has an edge.
The Hurricanes: Carolina’s power play could be better. That is the long and short of it. They are in the top ten as a team when it comes to generating shot attempts and shots on net. However, the team’s conversion rate is in the bottom third of the league. Part of the reason why is that they are in the bottom third of the league in generating scoring chances and high danger scoring chances. They do draw a lot of calls, as you may expect from an aggressively forechecking team. Then again, they also take a lot, as you will see in the next section. The Canes can fire pucks but they appear to often be more from the perimeter in man advantage situations.
The Canes run a 1-3-1 too. Yet, they are more static and, again, struggle to get the puck inside for chances compared with other NHL power plays. Their primary unit features Gostisbehere as the defenseman taking prime minutes along with Aho, Jarvis, and Svechnikov. He has supplanted Brent Burns in this role from past seasons. The fifth man could be Hall, Blake, or Stankoven. Each has put up over 2 minutes of power play time on ice with the Canes. The remainder will go to a second unit, likely led by Burns as a defenseman (assuming he plays) On paper, this can work. On the ice, the results could be better. No single Cane listed has an xGF/60 above 9 on the team with everyone in the 7-8 range. No one really sticks out with a positive rate that suggests they are a particular danger. It’s a unit that either works or doesn’t together. If they click, then the Canes are better for it. If not, it could be a problem if the playoffs games are close games and Carolina is struggling to get that one or two extra goal to prevail.
Who’s Better: The Devils have the better power play. Simple as. Even without Jack Hughes, the Devils have been that much better.
The Penalty Kill
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The Devils: The Devils have been a very good penalty killing team this season. Among the best, really. This is a positive in that it backs up the idea that the Devils can play well defensively. As a team, the Devils are among league leaders in expected goals against rate and the rate of attempts against. They are also the league leaders in the rate of shots against. Even their team save percentage is in the top ten. The Devils are one of the best penalty killing teams in the league.
In terms of personnel, expect a lot of Dillon, Kovacevic, and Pesce among defensemen. All three averaged at least 2 minutes of shorthanded ice time per game last season. Statistically, Pesce has been the best at limiting attempts but Dillon and Kovacevic have not been blown up either. Brian Dumoulin has been included since his acquisition and it has gone well. Siegenthaler is missed here as he was awesome this season in shorthanded situations. Still, the Devils defenders are more than capable.
As are Devils forwards. Their main players in terms of ice time has been Hischier, Mercer, Bratt, and Haula. Other forwards like Palat, Bastian, Lazar, and Noesen have been used in limited fashion. The main four have been quite good with Haula and Bratt being especially good at limiting damage from the opposition power play. Like the defensemen, they are capable.
All the Devils need to do is stay out of the box and don’t lose their focus when they are shorthanded. They have killed 7 of 9 Carolina power plays across four games in the regular season, so they are capable in this matchup even if the games were over 3 months ago.
The Hurricanes: While the Devils have been one of the best penalty killing teams, you can claim Carolina as the best in the league. They finished 2024-25 with the league’s best success rate. They edged out NJ in terms of rate of expected goals against and attempts against. They have been in a lot of situations and they have allowed only one additional goal compared with the Devils despite needing to kill an additional 30 shorthanded situations.
In terms of defensemen, Slavin and Burns have taken on the most minutes and they have been superb as a pairing. If Burns stays in the lineup, it may be for this aspect of the game. Orlov and Chatfield have also been super effective on the PK. Carolina’s top penalty killing forwards have been Staal, Martinook, Aho, and Jarvis. Staal and Martinook are excellent 5-on-5 defenders. That has translated well to 4-on-5 situations. Aho and Jarvis provides the same benefit Hischier and Bratt does: offensive skills to complement defensive play and occasionally get a shorthanded rush to push back with. And Aho and Jarvis do that quite well.
Carolina needs to avoid the penalty box. But if there is a group that can keep the Devils power play quiet, it’s this one. In theory, at least. In practice, the Devils went 3 for 8 on the power play in their four games against each other. Not terrible but better than Carolina’s power play. The hope is that theory works out better for this playoff series.
Who’s Better: Carolina. New Jersey’s PK is really good but the Hurricanes are, again, the best in the NHL in this past season.
The Coaches
Devils Coaching Staff: Sheldon Keefe (head), Jeremy Colliton, Ryan McGill, Chris Taylor, Sergei Brylin, David Rogalski (goalie)
After firing Lindy Ruff and letting Travis Green walk, Tom Fitzgerald reached out to Sheldon Keefe after Toronto was knocked out the playoffs in 2024. Keefe signed with the Devils to be their new head coach. Most of the assistants remained with Jeremy Colliton being the only new hire. Of the assistants, Colliton arguably has done the best given how excellent the team’s power play has been this season. While the forwards could be better in general in terms of performance, you cannot say he has faltered.
As for Keefe, it is an open question as to whether he and the rest of the staff has. The Devils were a dominant 5-on-5 team in the first three months of the season and performing like a legitimate playoff contender. Since Christmas, the team has slumped and fallen off a cliff statistically with Keefe & Co. not really changing all that much about how they play. Depending on the forward line, you will see leans towards carry-ins (usually for lines with Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, and Timo Meier) or dump-and-chase entries (bottom six). The Devils have taken Keefe’s preference for not panicking on defense to heart. They can and have and likely will continue to make extra passes and moves in their own end for safer breakouts. Yet, since Christmas, the team has been prone to giving up more scoring chances and more volume in general – something made worse by the offense creating much less. Reductive as it may seem, but the Devils have become a team where they lean on their goalie being hot, their sticks being hot, and hoping they do not blow any opportunities. A clear night-and-day difference from the team before Christmas – and it has not changed since Christmas either.
I can understand and agree that a team cannot just simply change a system after 50-60 games. However, the results were not there, the performances have suffered, and yet there is little adjustment made. Throw in the fact that a team filled with veterans seemingly does not show up for games or makes mental mistakes on the ice that cost them points in the standings, and one can credibly question whether Keefe has done a good job this season. Yes, the Devils made it to the playoffs, but were they led there as well as they could have? It is a fair question.
More relevant for this series, does Keefe and his staff have a gameplan for Carolina’s system and tendencies? The 2023 Devils did not and that is how they lost in five, mostly decisive games against them. I think they did back in that November home game, but either they did not try to repeat it or they could not repeat it in the two games in December. They better have a plan now, otherwise the 2025 Devils may end up suffering a similar fate. It is not like Carolina’s way of playing hockey is a secret either.
Hurricanes Coaching Staff: Rod Brind’Amour (head), Jeff Daniels, Tim Gleason, Paul Schonfelder (goalie), Chris Huffine (video)
The Hurricanes coaching staff has been together for a while. The least tenured member of this group is Gleason and this is his fourth season as an assistant head coach. This also means that most of this staff was present for 2023’s series win over the Devils – and their playoff exits before and after. They are led by Rod Brind’Amour, arguably the swolest head coach in the league. His own commitment to strength and conditioning has certainly set an example for a Canes team that has a motor like he had as a player. Brind’Amour has completed his seventh season as Hurricanes head coach and received a five-season extension after last year’s playoff loss. Management and ownership believe in Brind’Amour’s coaching. And why not? It has given them a legitimate identity that has made the team quite difficult to play against.
That identity comes in a few steps. First, the team has the green light to fire the puck as they see fit. This is backed up by the sheer number of attempts and shots they take, both among league leaders in 5-on-5 play. Second, the forecheck. The Hurricanes use a 1-2-2 forecheck on offense to win pucks from those shots, but aggressively so to win a lot more of those battles. Sometimes it even looks like a 2-1-2. They can and will go hard at the puck carrier and/or the side with it. A weakside defenseman can pinch in to deny the reverse and a forward can leak out if that happens to give that defender an option for, you guessed it, another shot. Because the Canes uses this approach to extend offensive possessions, this takes pressure off the defense. The team is also usually wise enough to not overcommit to ensure they have numbers back for any rush plays or counter-attacks. Third, if and when an opponent breaks down due to the pressure, the team is deep enough to have the players to pounce on the extra space or open man and fire a more dangerous shot and, hopefully, a goal. This is the Carolina Hurricanes way of playing hockey with the puck and in going forward. I know it, you know it, the Devils know it, 30 other NHL teams know it, and no one has been able to consistently beat it. This should sound incredibly familiar to the People Who Matter who have supported the Devils since the 1990s.
By the way, what is their defensive zone structure? Man on man. It is simple. It is difficult. But the Canes have the guys to make it work and work very well. As another call back to those halcyon days in the 1990s, everyone on Carolina has bought in and does this on defense.
This identity is further secured as Brind’Amour and his staff remain. As a player, you know you need to adapt to them and not hope they adapt to you. And if you were acquired or drafted by Carolina, then they probably think you can fit and grow within their system. Which is why if call ups are needed, the Canes have an edge there too. Even though GM Eric Tulsky has finishing up his first season in the job, he has been in the organization for much longer in other roles. He knows full well that the key is to support this team’s system and get the appropriate players to fit in it. This is why their depth is such a concern for the Devils and other teams. Stopping Sebastian Aho does not mean Logan Stankoven or Mark Janikowski or Taylor Hall or Jackson Blake will be as all – and others! – are capable of performing in this system. Recent play going into the playoffs shows a potential flaw: a lack of focus and attention to details. However, that flaw can undercut any team – just look at how the Devils ended their season. With the games now mattering, the focus will likely not be an issue anymore.
The only real questions for Carolina are whether the coaching staff that oversees the special teams and goaltending will perform better. They have been key reasons why the Canes have not gone all the way in these recent years. While there has been some player changes, the performances from this past season have not been encouraging that 2025 will be any different. It is odd to me that the coaches and the management just keep riding with the same people in charge of the areas that have let the team down. Maybe they believe in the 5-on-5 play that much more? Maybe they think it was just chance that the power play got ice cold or the goalie just had a bad week or two and that may not happen again? Maybe. But the staffers, not necessarily Brind’Amour, may have to be held accountable if the power play goes cold and/or the goalies falter again for another playoff exit.
Who’s Better: Carolina. Even if they have some bad nights, they have been able to consistently return to their system of play and beat an opponent to prove it. And that system has generally worked for many years now. The Devils have played poorly for three plus months and the coaching staff has yet to make a meaningful change to how they play hockey. I have to give the edge to Brind’Amour and his staff for that.
Some Narratives Addressed
Is This A Rivalry?: In my opinion, no. Yes, this is the sixth playoff meeting between the two teams since 2000. There has been a 14-year gap between playoff series in 2009 and 2023, it is hard to see this being a kind of a rivalry. Even with how much Game 7 ripped out the hearts of the People Who Matter in 2009, it did not lead to a particularly heated set of games in 2010 or 2011 or beyond when Carolina came to town. If there was an obnoxious Hurricane fanbase that showed up to every Devils game and rubbed playoff wins in the faces of the People Who Matter like it was 1994, then sure, one could have grown. But that does not exist so it does not exist. I only see this take online but rarely does it manifest at the Rock. Those at the Lenovo Center, who knows.
Does Home Ice Matter?: Absolutely. For starters, the home team won each game in their regular season series of games. More importantly, Carolina has been absolutely fantastic at home this season. Carolina is 31-9-1 this season at home. Only Winnpeg and Los Angeles can claim a home record of 30 wins or more this season. You might as well call it the Enovo Center because there is rarely an ‘L’ for the home team there. Which is bad news for the Devils because they will need to win at least one game there to win this series. Adding to the bad news is that the Devils are no strangers to stinking it up at home with a not as impressive 19-17-5 record at home this season.
I personally believe the Devils have to win either Game 1 or Game 2 in Raleigh to have a fighting chance in this series. Coming back to the Rock down two games is a tough situation.
Lead Controllers: Both teams have been remarkably successful when they are leading in games. The Devils have a slightly better record than Carolina when leading after the first period: 21-3-1 compared with 20-4-2. The Devils also have a slightly better record than Carolina when leading after two periods: 35-1-2 compared with 37-1-3. Also interesting and relevant to this: both the Devils and Hurricanes have been outscored in first periods but heavily outscore opponents in second periods. What this all tells me is that whoever can build up an early lead in a game may have an edge in it. This is the playoffs so expect some spirited attempts at comebacks, which may throw off either team since they have been very good about locking down results when up in a game.
In contrast, the Devils have been far less successful than Carolina when trailing. If the Devils are losing after the first period, their record is 3-19-4. Not that Carolina’s 9-19-3 is wonderful but it is better than New Jersey’s record. If trailing after two periods, the Devils are cooked given their 1-24-2 record and the Hurricanes are slightly less cooked with a 5-26-2 record.
Cliche as it is, scoring first and leading after the first period may be indicators as to who may prevail in this series.
The PHYSICALITY: Yes, hitting may ramp up compared to the regular season games from the first half of this season. No, it will not decide who wins this series. It did not in 2023. Or in 2009. Or in 2006. Or in 2002. Or in 2001. And, no, Carolina is not remotely a “heavy” team. Aggressive, yes, but not “heavy.”
Can the Playoff Switch Be Switched On?: For those who believe in Palat and Haula and veteran presence and experience matters a lot, you better hope so. Personally, I disagree. Hockey, like many things, is a process. Habits, practices, and repetition matters to a point in the chaotic sport on ice. It guides the player, the line, the unit, and the team to perform through all kinds of situations, expected and otherwise. I can agree that a team does not need to be on a hot streak going into the postseason and a cold streak is not a death sentence either. But I disagree that someone like Palat, who has been largely terrible this season for the Devils, is going to suddenly play out of his mind and turn into an all star for two weeks. I would love it if it happened but I cannot expect it.
Also: This is to say nothing of Carolina’s own playoff experience and veteran presence. The Hurricanes have always made the playoffs under Rod Brind’Amour. Only the rookies are unfamiliar with the postseason and that may not matter much provided they stick to Brind’Amour’s plans. If a switch really exists, then it is as likely the Canes can “turn it on” too. This may be a philosophical argument but I do not think it does. And the process Carolina has been utilizing for multiple seasons is going to be a pain for New Jersey to play against regardless.
Is This Going to Come Entirely Down to Can the Devils Beat / Slow Down / Negate the Carolina Forecheck?: Hockey is chaotic enough where the Devils can possibly win even if Carolina crushes it with their forecheck. But if the 2024-25 Devils do not have an answer for it or cannot mitigate the pressure, then it is going to be very difficult for the Devils to win. Nothing is impossible but I do believe that this is a central question to this series. If NJ can do it though, their odds in taking this series will likely improve.
Who Really Has the Pressure?: As much in spaces like this one, expectations do exist for the Devils. According to some of the People Who Matter, such as myself, the Devils’ window for contention opened up in 2023. Yes, it is bad that The Big Deal and Siegenthaler is out. That does not mean it all has to be thrown away. The Devils, who are a cap ceiling team, should be pushing to go as far as they can until their core cannot do it anymore.
Yet, it could be argued by others away from here that it is not the case. The Devils made the playoffs after missing it last season. That is a fact and an objective goal met for 2024-25. They know they are underdogs so provided they do not get entirely dominated, anything beyond this is gravy. I can see that.
I can also see the argument that the pressure is really on Carolina. Yes, they have consistently made it out of the first round. They have also made it to the Eastern Conference Finals only once under Brind’Amour’s tenure. Should the Canes fall short of the third round once again, it could mean more serious changes under GM Eric Tulsky. He does not make a deal for Rantanen to just go back to the ECFs; that was a move made to put the team over the top. That was why he was willing to move Martin Necas, a player who was thriving in Carolina’s system, for Rantanen. While I think he made the best of that not working out, a playoff exit could lead to changes to the coaching staff or other players. The Hurricanes may be the favorites but even if they struggle while advancing, the pressure to succeed will only multiply. The Canes should be able to handle it given their playoff history. But if they can get thrown off by it, then so be it. The Devils need every edge they can get in this series anyhow.
A Prediction That May Age Badly
One of the things that I remind myself over the nearly 19 years of writing about the Devils online it is better to be happy than right. Happy in that the New Jersey Devils succeed even when I do not think they would or could or, dare I suggest, should win. Please consider that as you read this penultimate section to this preview.
Another one of the things that I remind myself over the nearly 19 years of writing about the Devils is to try to think of the situation if it did not involve your favorite hockey team. If this was Team A versus Team B and the numbers, the results, the talent, and the performances all looked like this, then who do you think would win? Take away the emotional attachment to either side. Would it be A or B? Ignore what you may think of the players, good or bad. Is A better or B better? Can I truly say A is better when the numbers are more tilted in B’s direction?
A third thing that I remind myself over the nearly 19 years of writing about the Devils is that the more ifs or hopeful statements, the worse it is for the team’s chances. For if a team needs multiple things to go right and/or cannot afford to go wrong, then that team is probably not expected to do so well. And for those reasons, in part. Yes, upsets can and do happen in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Columbus was not expected to beat Tampa Bay in 2019, much less sweep them. Boston was supposed to eliminate Florida in 2023, not get Bobrovsky’ed to oblivion. Toronto has had parade plans spoiled year-in, year-out since 2017. The odds of a team coming back from a 0-2 series deficit to win are real low, yet we saw it at The Rock in 2023. We have examples of these things happening. We even lived through it. But to expect them to happen again as a way for our favorite team to prevail? Do you really think that kind of an event will happen again? And in this specific series?
With all of this stated, please consider the fact that the Devils’ pathway to beating Carolina in the playoffs is going to be through their own goaltender(s) getting hot, their special teams out-scoring the Hurricanes, and trying to survive in 5-on-5 situations – the most common situation in hockey – to keep games close. That’s a lot to hope for and there have been enough poor performances by the Devils from the last three months or so to think all of that is unlikely to happen. Especially with the knowledge that New Jersey management did not go for it while Carolina at least tried to upgrade their already contending team. There is also a real concern in my mind that New Jersey may struggle with same forecheck they struggled with badly two years ago – despite showing otherwise in one regular season game back in November 2024. I am unsure they will handle it well; therefore, that may drive a repeat of what happened 2023.
I do not like writing this. I fear and I think that Carolina will win this series in 5 games.
Please prove me wrong, Devils. And not by losing in four instead.
Your Take
Thank you for reading all or even some of this monstrous series preview. I hope I covered all of the necessary angles and even some that were not so necessary. You know what I think of the series and how I backed up my thinking for each part of it. Now it is your turn.
What do you think of this playoff series? Can the Devils handle the Carolina forecheck and their system of 5 on 5 offense this time? Can the Devils push back enough to stay in games or even win them? If you think the Devils can win this series, how do you think they would do it? Who do you expect to play well for either side? Lastly, what do you think will happen?
Please leave your answers and other thoughts about this playoff series in the comments. Thank you for reading.