Twenty games in, let’s take a look at how the additions to this offense have helped the squad so far, those additions being Stefan Noesen, Tomas Tatar, and Paul Cotter.
The New Jersey Devils are officially 20 games into the 2024-25 season. This seems kind of wild to think about, but they are still games ahead of everyone else. The league has not caught up to them since they started early in Czechia. 20 games gives us a decent sample size to see how players are performing and what is going on analytically. It is really tough to keep up a 20-game hot streak, and even snake-bitten players usually can break out of it after 20 games, so it gives us a good idea of how a player is doing.
Knowing that, I wanted to take a look at the forwards that were brought in prior to this season. There are three that make the list that I would like to dive into: Stefan Noesen, Tomas Tatar, and Paul Cotter (yes, Cotter was traded and not a free agent, like it says in the title, but you get the idea). They were not on this squad last year, and last year was obviously a disaster. Are they helping this crew to their strong 12-6-2 record right now? Or are they winning in spite of the hired help? Let’s look at some numbers via Natural Stat Trick:
Overall, just from a quick snapshot of these numbers, it is fairly clear that Tom Fitzgerald did a good job bringing in quality players to this team. All three have been solid contributors to the offense. Noesen has been very strong around the net, playing the game in the tough areas around the crease trying to make room for screens and rebounds. And it shows in his 16 points through 20 games, for 0.8 points per game. This is combined with a nearly 54% high danger Corsi percentage, which is very solid given his work in front of the net. His only real negative stat is his overall Corsi, which sits well under 50% at 46.65%. Relative, he sits at a -4.05 relative Corsi percentage. That is not great, and something he will want to improve on as the season goes along. But all things considered, Noesen has been a strong addition to the middle six of this offense, proving a strong 14+ minutes a game.
Tomas Tatar has not played nearly as much as the other two, with only a little over 11 minutes of ice time per game on average. And he has not produced points like the other two, with only two goals and 3 assists through the first 20 games. On pure point production, he has not been all that great of an addition, and he will need to produce more as the season goes on. But he has some strong underlying numbers which tell us that he is playing fairly well, and that points should come if he keeps playing like he has been. He has a dominant possession stat, with his Corsi sitting over 54%. Only Jack Hughes has a better possession stat among forwards, so he is helping to tilt the ice in NJ’s favor when he is out there. This is also paired with a strong expected goals percentage just over 53%, good for top 5 among forwards after the core four of Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, and Meier. So while the points have not come yet, he has the numbers to show that he is contributing, and the points should show up eventually.
Cotter has been a real pleasant surprise to most of us who thought that the deal that sent Alexander Holtz to Vegas was a bad one. Based on his prior numbers, I honestly thought Cotter was almost a throwaway in the deal, more of just a fourth line add to bolster the depth of this offense. But boy has he proven me wrong, and anyone else who thought this way. He has 12 points through 20 games after only having 25 points last year in 76 games with Vegas. And this has been paired with decent underlying numbers as well. He has an expected goals percentage over 52% and a high danger Corsi stat just under 52% while only having 40% of his faceoffs come in the offensive zone. Yes, his CF% is as low as Noesen’s, but overall, he has been producing way more than was to be expected, and that is awesome.
So far, even with Tatar’s suppressed point totals, these three additions to the offense have been very productive and have helped this team get to its strong record through 20 games. Noesen has been his usual gritty self in front of the net, Tatar has quality underlying numbers and should be poised to generate points sooner than later, and Cotter has been a nice surprise. If they keep playing strong, this offense will have the depth it needs to be a dangerous squad for all 82 regular season games, and perhaps beyond.