The Devils have scored a lot of power play goals, and that has been a huge part of their success. But can they count on that moving forward?
The New Jersey Devils have gotten off to a good start this season in large part because of the success that they have had with the man advantage.
Through 24 games this season, the Devils are scoring on 31.5% of their power plays this season, good for second in the NHL behind only the Winnipeg Jets.
While this is all very good, it’s also easy to draw a parallel last year to when the Devils started out the season with a power play that was scorching hot. Through this date one season ago, the Devils were converting on the power play at an absurd 37.5% clip, which was good for first in the league at the time. Unfortunately, between injuries to key players and a natural regression, the Devils were never going to ride that momentum all the way through an 82 game season. The pendulum swung hard in the other direction where the Devils went through a long stretch where the Devils couldn’t buy a power play goal and as a result, they wound up finishing 13th. A respectable, but somewhat misleading representation of what the power play actually was over long stretches of last season.
I’m not going to say the Devils power play will go through another prolonged slump like they did a year ago, but I think it would be reasonable to expect regression to some extent once again. Only once since the turn of the century has a team finished over 30% on the power play for an entire season, and the team that did that had Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as a big part of the reason why. That’s not to say the Devils still won’t have an effective power play when its all said and done, and if they’re hovering at or around 25% for the year, they’re ultimately doing something right. But the success of the power play does raise some other questions, with perhaps the biggest one being whether or not the Devils are a bit too reliant on the power play for their success?
Here’s a quick breakdown of the 84 goals the Devils have scored this season.
- At even strength, the Devils have scored 52 of their 84 goals on the season (61.9%)
- On the power play, the Devils have scored 23 of their goals (27.4%)
- Shorthanded, the Devils have scored 2 goals this season (2.4%)
- With an extra attacker, the Devils have scored once this season (1.2%)
- Lastly, the Devils have scored 6 times into an empty net (7.1%)
The Devils aren’t exactly hurting for offense as they’re right around 3.5 goals per game on the season (6th in the league heading into last night’s games), but their success with the man advantage is a big part of the season they have that many goals per game. One doesn’t need to look too deep under the hood to see the Devils are a middle of the pack team when it comes to xGF% and CF% at 5v5. At 5v5, they’re currently 14th in the league in Goals For per 60, with 2.49. Respectable, but well behind the league leaders in that category and a list that includes the other three teams in the Top 4 of the Metropolitan Division aside from New Jersey…..Washington (1st), Carolina (3rd), and the NY Rangers (7th).
It’s very well possible the Devils have become a team where the power play is indeed a strength and it needs to be accounted for when other teams pre-scout New Jersey. That’s all well and good. But its easy to forget that the majority of all NHL games are played at 5v5. It’s the most common situation in-game, and there’s a reason why we cite 5v5 stats as it gives the fairest and largest sample size of who and what teams actually are.
Additionally, there’s a misconception that the referees swallow their whistles in postseason hockey games, and while I understand where that comes from, its only partially true. Physicality ramps up in playoff games and a lot of stuff that might get called in the regular season goes uncalled in the postseason. The referees also tend to swallow the whistle in late game situations (ie: third period and overtime) where the game is in the balance. They do so because there is an unwritten understanding that the referees don’t want to be the ones to decide playoff games, so instead of doing their job, they wind up inadvertently deciding playoff games by only calling blatantly obvious penalties such as a puck over the glass.
Part of the reason why your power play merchant teams (think Edmonton, Toronto, and NY Rangers the last few years) eventually lose in the playoffs is because they’re not getting those calls late in the game that they might otherwise be getting in the regular season. And if you’re not getting those power play opportunities, than you damn well better be scoring at 5v5 if you plan on winning playoff games and playoff series.
I do think there is room for the Devils to grow at 5v5, which is part of the reason why I’m not too concerned, After all, we are only 24 games into the Sheldon Keefe era and the players are still adjusting to a new system. I think once they get more comfortable, you’ll see things open up a bit offensively at even strength, and some of those numbers should rise. The Devils don’t necessarily need to be first in Corsi, but improvements in CF% (50.11, 15th in the league) and xGF% (52.26, 9th in the league) should theoretically lead to finding the back of the net a bit more. I think the combination of that and players like Jack Hughes, Timo Meier, Dougie Hamilton, and Luke Hughes who are all shooting below their career norms should help the Devils bounce back at 5v5 once we get a larger sample size of games to analyze. And heaven help the rest of the league if the Devils actually get a little lucky when it comes to going on a shooting bender. They’re 14th in shooting percentage at 5v5 and their 1.005 PDO suggests that they’re not particularly lucky or unlucky.
The last thing I’ll mention on this topic is that I think a big part of the reason why last year’s power play stagnated was self-inflicted harm. Yes, injuries were a factor as well, but the combination of predictable zone entries, the lack of quick puck movement, the lack of player movement (aka, the players being too stationary), the lack of a true net front presence, and the lack of a big shot from the point that needed to be respected were all reasons why the power play took a step back. Things have been different this year with Stefan Noesen becoming the netfront guy, Dougie Hamilton returning to the top PP unit, playmakers like Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt being a little more deliberate with the puck, all of those pieces moving around as a cohesive unit, and a more diverse approach when it comes to zone entries. Hopefully under the coaching of Jeremy Colliton, the Devils don’t deviate too much from what has been working for them even as the league adjusts to them and they still have enough success in the second half of the season where any natural regression that is bound to happen regardless isn’t too extreme.
For those reasons, while the Devils might be a bit reliant on the power play for their success now, I don’t think its necessarily a bad thing. Having a good power play is a weapon, and the Devils have a talented and diverse enough assortment of players where they should be able to raise their game at 5v5 to some extent. I do think they could probably use another winger somewhere in the middle six to help take the offense to another level, but things are at a point now where they’re certainly more than fine and there’s more than enough to win hockey games in the here and now. And none of this mentions the improvements the Devils have made with goaltending. The reality is that if the Devils continue to get .910 goaltending or better as a team, they shouldn’t have to score 4 or 5 goals on any given night just to have a chance to win. It’s great that they can and that they’re capable of doing so, but there will be plenty of nights where they simply need to win those 2-1 and 3-2 type of games.
The Devils have shown in the early portion of the season that they are capable of winning hockey games in a variety of manners. Through the power play. Through top notch goaltending. Through a great defensive effort. They’ve shown they can have character, gritty, grind it out types of wins. They can be led by their superstars or their captain on some nights. They can get scoring from unexpected sources further down the lineup on others. The Devils are a well-rounded team and I would expect that to continue as the season progresses.