Are the Devils Too Young to Win a Stanley Cup?

The Devils are a young team. They’re no longer one of the youngest teams in the league. But have they matured enough to win a Stanley Cup?

The whole purpose of rebuilding in sports is fairly simple. The team, as presently constructed, isn’t good enough to win a championship. Perhaps they’re not talented enough, they’re too old, or a combination of the two, so its time to move on from the past and look ahead to the future.

The New Jersey Devils were a team in desperate need of a rebuild in the mid 2010s. It was obvious with their two best players leaving in consecutive offseasons in 2012 and 2013 and the Devils getting nothing in return for either that they were not going to be able to duplicate their surprise run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2012. The Devils core at the time was pushing 40 years old, years of poor drafting and bad free agent signings caught up to them, and there was not enough high end talent on the roster to be a serious contender.

To me, the Devils rebuild officially began in 2015 when Lou Lamoriello stepped down as general manager and Ray Shero took over, ushering in an entirely new era of Devils hockey. It was a long and arduous process that certainly had plenty of bumps, false starts, and setbacks along the way, but Shero and his successor Tom Fitzgerald laid the groundwork for the Devils team that we have today.

With the Devils spending up to the salary cap ceiling the past three seasons and the variety of win-now moves that Fitzgerald has made to accelerate this process, the Devils rebuild has come to an end. At least, theoretically. Some would say that until you win a championship, you’re not actually rebuilt because you’re always building. Others might argue that once the team is good, they’re rebuilt…..now go win. Some might even say that because last year’s team was a big disappointment, you should still be rebuilding. I consider the rebuild to be over once the team shifts from asset-accumulation mode to moves geared towards winning now, and I consider the Devils to have made that shift already.

As a result, the Devils have been one of the youngest teams in the NHL for several seasons now. That’s not a surprise, as teams that are rebuilding are going to get rid of older players and play younger players. But with youth comes inexperience and with inexperience comes growing pains, as the NHL is still very much a grown man’s league. And while it might not be as extreme as an 18 year old player skating circles around someone who is literally a child, it shouldn’t be surprising that players between the ages of 18-22 might struggle against 30-year old men with 700+ games of NHL experience when they haven’t fully grown into their bodies yet and haven’t matured into the players they’re projected to ultimately be.

Theoretically, you do want to have a team where your best players are all between the ages of 21-26, as the competitive window is wide open and you should be able to compete for championships on a perennial basis. How young is too young though? Are the Devils now at a point where after being one of the youngest teams in the league for several years, they are now old enough to contend for the Stanley Cup? Let’s try to answer those questions.

For the sake of this exercise, we will only go as far back as the 2005-06 season, as that gives us nearly 20 years of data to work with. It also covers the entirety of the NHL in the salary cap era, which is certainly an important factor as well. I don’t think its fair to compare these Devils to teams in the 1980s and 90s, let alone as far back as when there were only 12 teams in the league, so I won’t.

How Old Are the Devils Entering the 2024-25 season?

According to NHL Rosters on Twitter, based on the average age of current projected 20-man gameday rosters, the Devils are 28.1 years old entering the 2024-25 season, making them the 12th youngest team in the league (or 21st oldest, depending upon your point of view)

For comparison’s sake, the Devils were 26.8, 26.7, 26.7, 25.8, and 25.9 years old the previous five seasons.

The Devils crossing the 28.0 threshold this offseason is to be expected. In addition to everybody on the team getting a year older, they added five players over the age of 30 to the roster in Stefan Noesen, Tomas Tatar, Brenden Dillon, Jake Allen (for a full season, anyways), and Jacob Markstrom. Brett Pesce will turn 30 as well on November 15th of this year. They did this while simultaneously moving out younger players such as Alexander Holtz (22), Akira Schmid (24), Kevin Bahl (24), and John Marino (27).

How Young is Too Young? The Answer is Definitely Under the Age of 27

The following is a list of how many teams there have been with an average age of the team weighted by time on ice under the age of 27.0 per season, and how many of THOSE teams made the playoffs. All stats courtesy of Hockey-Reference.

2023-24: 5 teams, 0 playoff teams

2022-23: 5 teams, 1 playoff team (New Jersey)

2021-22: 5 teams, 1 playoff team (NY Rangers) – Note: Seattle entered the league as an expansion team

2020-21: 4 teams, 0 playoff teams – Note: 56 game regular season

2019-20: 8 teams, 6 “playoff teams”*, 3 REAL playoff teams – Note: 24 of the league’s 31 teams returned to play in the bubble due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Six of those teams were under the age of 27.0. Three of them (Colorado, Columbus, Carolina) either advanced to the first round of the playoffs by winning in the qualifying round or had a bye into the first round

2018-19: 6 teams, 3 playoff teams (Carolina, Winnipeg, Columbus)

2017-18: 5 teams, 3 playoff teams (Winnipeg, Columbus, Colorado) – Note: Vegas entered the league as an expansion team

2016-17: 7 teams, 3 playoff teams (Edmonton, Columbus, Toronto)

2015-16: 4 teams, 0 playoff teams

2014-15: 3 teams, 2 playoff teams (Tampa Bay, Ottawa)

2013-14: 11 teams, 2 playoff teams (Colorado, Columbus)

2012-13: 10 teams, 5 playoff teams (Chicago, Washington, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Toronto) – Note: 48 game regular season

2011-12: 10 teams, 4 playoff teams (Nashville, Los Angeles, NY Rangers, St. Louis)

2010-11: 13 teams, 5 playoff teams (Nashville, Chicago, Los Angeles, NY Rangers, Washington)

2009-10: 5 teams, 3 playoff teams (Chicago, Colorado, Los Angeles)

2008-09: 5 teams, 3 playoff teams (Pittsburgh, Chicago, Columbus)

2007-08: 4 teams, 1 playoff team (Pittsburgh)

2006-07: 4 teams, 3 playoff teams (Ottawa, San Jose, Pittsburgh)

2005-06: 4 teams, 2 playoff teams (Buffalo, San Jose)

By the Numbers:

37.28% (44 of 118) – percentage of teams with an average age of the team weighted by time on ice under the age of 27 that have made the playoffs in the salary cap era. And the heavy majority of those teams are closer to 27.0 than 26.0

37.5% (36 of 96) – covering those same 19 years but now I’m throwing out the three seasons that were shortened due to the pandemic or a work stoppage.

4 – Four teams out of nineteen previous champions in the salary cap era have won a Stanley Cup with a roster with a average age of the team weighted by time on ice under 27.0. Pittsburgh in 2008-09, Chicago in 2009-10, Los Angeles in 2011-12, and Chicago in 2012-13

1 – One team in the last decade who won the Stanley Cup with a roster with an average age of the team weighted by time on ice under 28.0 (Tampa Bay in 2019-20)

25.8 – the average age of Columbus in 2008-09, the youngest playoff team in the salary cap era

Are the Devils Too Young to Win a Stanley Cup?

Before attempting to answer this question, let’s take a closer look at the previous 19 Stanley Cup champions of the salary cap era and what their average age of the team weighted by time on ice was, as well as where they ranked.

What does this spreadsheet and all of these numbers even mean though? What’s the context of it? How old were the best players on those particular teams? Are there any weird outliers like old man Corey Perry being on 4 of the last 5 Cup runner-ups skewing the average age?

I think for me, its as simple as looking at the core of each championship team, and while I’m not going to do a comprehensive breakdown of the last 19 Stanley Cup champions, it isn’t that surprising that teams go as far as they do due to the play of their best players. In the case of these teams, the core players are typically in or entering their primes. Either way, they’re at or near the peak of their potential.

Going back to some of those teams under 27 that won a championship, look no further than the Penguins being led by a 21 year old Sidney Crosby and a 22 year old Evgeni Malkin. Or the Blackhawks with Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane at the age of 21. Or the Kings with Drew Doughty at 22, Anze Kopitar at 24, and Jonathan Quick at 26. Even a team like Tampa Bay in 2014-15 that didn’t win the Cup had their core guys lead the way, as Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, and Victor Hedman were all 24 years of age or younger. All of them turned out to be key members of the Lightning teams that did win the Cup several years later. Yes, you do need some of that veteran savvy up and down the lineup, but for the most part, your team will go as far as your best players take you.

That said, those Penguins and Blackhawks teams are 15 years ago at this point. That Lightning team I referenced didn’t win until they did years later. And its tough to even find recent Stanley Cup champions where the team’s best players are 24 years old or younger. Cale Makar won a Conn Smythe at 23. Brayden Point was 23 and 24 years old when he was one of Tampa’s leading scorers during their Cup runs. Robert Thomas wasn’t quite the player he is now back in 2019 when he won the Cup as a 19-year old role player, although he was a contributor to some extent.

But looking at some of the more recent Stanley Cup champions, Florida’s core players were all between the age of 26-28, with the exception of a 35 year old Sergei Bobrovsky in net. None of Vegas’s core players were under the age of 26 and most of them were over the age of 30 (Stone, Marchessault, Pietrangelo, Karlsson). Most of Colorado’s core was in the 25-26 range (Rantanen, MacKinnon, Toews), with Makar being the young’un at 23 and Landeskog being the elder statesman of the bunch at 29. The aforementioned Lightning core, sans Point and Mikhail Sergachev (who we’ll touch on in a bit) was in the 26-30 range (Kucherov, STamkos, Hedman, Palat, McDonagh). I’d keep going with the next wave of Cup champions like St. Louis, Washington, and the back-to-back Pittsburgh teams of the mid 2010s, but by now, you get the point.

What Does Any of This Have to Do with the Devils?

To be clear, I’m not saying that Nico Hischier is Sidney Crosby, Jack Hughes is Patrick Kane, or Luke Hughes is Cale Makar. They’re their own players with their own identities, and part of the reason why Crosby in particular won as young as he did is because he’s a once in a generation type of talent. In the case of the Hughes brothers, Nemec, and Mercer, we’re talking about players who probably aren’t yet finished products in terms of their respective developments. We’re also talking about players who have barely played any playoff hockey on their respective resumes.

Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec aren’t even 21 years old yet and they’ll both be a big part of the blueline for a long time, but it does need to be noted that no team in the cap era has won a Cup with one defensemen that young playing top minutes, let alone two. Doughty and Makar are probably the two closest at 22 and 23 years old, respectively and Mikhail Sergachev (and to a lesser extent, Erik Cernak) played a prominent role in the Top 4 for the two recent Lightning championship teams at 21 and 22 years old. But they also weren’t Tampa’s Top 2 defensemen during their runs…..that distinction went to seasoned veterans in Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh. For the most part, championship teams simply don’t have defensemen that young playing Top Pairing minutes. And if they do, we’re talking about either incredibly deep teams like the ones Tampa had or defensemen with Hall of Fame upside, which Makar and Doughty certainly possess. Time will tell if Luke and/or Nemec ever get to that level.

The Devils have really only had the one playoff appearance thus far to speak of and Luke Hughes was barely a part of it (3 playoff games) while Nemec has yet to make his playoff debut. That is another notable distinction, as Doughty (12 playoff games prior to his Cup run), Makar (35 playoff games), Sergachev (21), and Cernak (4) all had more playoff experience prior to their championship runs than the Devils young duo.

Add in the fact that Jesper Bratt and Nico Hischier are entering their age 26 seasons. Jack Hughes will be 23, as will Dawson Mercer. Most of those players got their only NHL playoff experience in spring 2023, although Bratt and Hischier also made playoff appearances in 2018. Those ages are in line with many of the players from other teams I referenced, but even with a lot of those players becoming veterans at this point, they’re still skewing on the younger and generally speaking, inexperienced side. Especially when compared to teams that they likely need to go through such as the Rangers, Carolina, and the Big 4 teams in the Atlantic Division.

I would say because Luke, Jack, and Nemec are as young as they are and still have some growing pains left to endure in their development, the Devils are probably still a little too young in too many key areas to win a Stanley Cup this season. But I do think experience matters, getting to the playoffs matters, and playing in big games matters. The core of this team has already experienced the highs of winning a playoff series and lows of losing a playoff series, which is good for them in the long-term. They’re also coming off of a season where they failed horribly to live up to expectations. It remains to be seen how they respond to that, but I do believe in the core of this team and I believe in the veterans they added this offseason to help get them back on track.

Then again, age is nothing but a number at the end of the day and there’s a first for everything, I suppose. I wouldn’t say that the Devils CAN’T win a Stanley Cup as early as this season. And if they don’t win a Cup this season, I’m not saying its because Luke and Nemec aren’t old enough to legally have a drink in the United States. I have thrown a lot of numbers out there in this column and I’d say make what you will of the information and facts that I have provided. But if the Devils win, it’ll be more likely because they’re just better than whoever they played rather than our five best players and their date of birth and they’re on one of those magical runs where everything just clicks. If they don’t win, it’s likely because they’re not good enough for now and they got humbled by a more experienced, battle-tested foe, and they’ll need to build upon that.

If this iteration of the Devils is going to win a championship, it will likely be sometime in the next few years once the Hughes brothers and Nemec are finished products, core players like Hischier, Bratt, and Meier who are still in their primes are still contributing at a high level, and a dropoff by some of the teams they’re trying to get past. Most of the core with teams like the Rangers and Tampa are already over the age of 30 and teams like Boston and Florida aren’t that far behind them. Rosters can change and teams can find ways to extend their windows, but as I mentioned already, the Devils core is locked in and have already won a playoff series as a team, crossing that hurdle off of their checklist. The Devils might be too young to win a championship right now, but they’re not that far off either.