The New Jersey Devils are still largely a young team up front. Despite their scoring success over the past two seasons, there is reason to believe they still have another level to attain.
As the New Jersey Devils prepare for another year, hoping to get further in the playoffs than they got in the 2022-23 season, some people may be wondering how long their competitive window is. On the surface, there are some issues, such as the age of Jacob Markstrom and Dougie Hamilton, who figure to be two of the most important factors in their 2024-25 success. But deeper below, there is how well the forwards produce, alongside questions about how everyone will fit into the cap picture as more young players get beyond their entry-level contracts. Today, I wanted to dive into that forward production.
Take a look at the top scorers in the NHL today. Nikita Kucherov hit his new career high in points at age 30. Nathan MacKinnon was right behind him, also hitting 140 points for the first time at age 28. Connor McDavid broke 150 at age 26, while David Pastrnak got beyond the 100 mark with 113 and 110 points at age 26 and 27. Artemi Panarin reached 100 points for the first time in his career, reaching 120 at age 32. Of all the top ten scorers in the NHL for the 2023-24 season, the youngest was none other than the 27-year old Connor McDavid. If you expand the list to the top 20 scorers, the youngest is Quinn Hughes (92) at 24 years old — about a year younger than the next youngest on the list in Cale Makar (90) and Elias Pettersson (89).
Currently, the Devils’ forward core includes Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt, and Dawson Mercer. These five are the only returning players who had a 20-goal season or better in 2023-24. Timo Meier is the oldest, as he will turn 28 in October. Jesper Bratt is next, turning 26 at the end of this month. Nico will join him in January. Jack Hughes will turn 24 during the 2024-25 playoffs, while Dawson Mercer will be 23 in October. For some people, it is hard to avoid the feeling that their favorite team is just racing against the clock. Time is the enemy of the sports fan and the professional athlete.
But what is the prime for a hockey player? Given that there was no forward in the top 20 league scorers who was younger than 26 (Kaprizov, who turned 27 in April), and most of the top scorers were in their late 20s or early 30s, you might expect elite players to stay elite for longer. In today’s NHL, elite forwards seem to be reaching their scoring peaks between 26 and 30. As just three of the five core forwards will be in that range during the 2024-25 season, the Devils need to see even better play from Meier, Hischier, and Bratt. As the “veterans” of the top six (aside from whichever 30-something non-scorer they stick with Hughes all year), high production is a necessity.
I would love to see Hischier replicate or improve from his age-24 season, when he had 80 points in 81 games. Bratt, of course, reached his career high with 83 points in 2023-24 and will look to improve again. Timo Meier, meanwhile, needs to continue his performance from after the 2024 All-Star break. In 35 games after, Meier had 19 goals and 15 assists. In the 34 games prior, he had nine goals and nine assists. If these three stay together as a line, which I think would be best for matching up against opponent top lines due to their blend of skill, size, speed, and defensive ability, I expect to see them all around a point per game or better during the upcoming season. A tone-setting top matchup line will be essential for making the Devils tougher to play against.
Jack Hughes, on the other hand, is one of those players that reaches his prime in his early 20s — and hopefully never leaves it. With a surgically repaired shoulder, I am looking for the promised sequel to his 43-goal, 99-point season. Is 100 points on the table? As long as Jeremy Colliton runs a decent power play (Jack had 9 goals and 22 assists on the power play in each of his last two seasons), that should very much be the goal. Not only would this mean the Devils having the juice they need to get back to the playoffs, but it would mean not letting his older brother, Quinn, outscore him in another season.
The actual question mark in all of this is Dawson Mercer. After his 42 and 56-point efforts in his first two seasons, his 20-goal, 13-assist downturn sticks out sorely as he seeks a contract extension. Having not heard or seen anything on the matter, I have to wonder — is a long-term extension being discussed, or is Tom Fitzgerald trying to get Dawson to sign a one-year bridge to the next RFA year, as they did with Bratt multiple times prior to his eventual long-term contract? Personally, I am not super worried about Mercer. Mercer has barely seen any power play scoring during his career, and he has yet to miss a game. If he can just be present and keep his head in the game next to a healthy Jack Hughes, I am sure Dawson will pick it back up. This is especially true of his assist numbers, the decline of which accounted for most of his dip in production.
And that doesn’t even get into the defensemen, who I talked about last week. With Hughes and Nemec turning 21 years old in September and February, respectively, they are still a few years off from the prime years of their careers. Thankfully, with the infusion of veteran presence alongside the hopefully-triumphant return of Dougie Hamilton, the Devils’ forwards should not have to rely on their even-younger defensive counterparts for a chance to win in the coming seasons. Plus, with the return of defensively responsible play on the back end, the team’s forwards should be able to gain the offensive zone more often and lose it less often.
Alex recently talked about things that Sheldon Keefe needs to prove this year, and I would add one very specific thing here. Not only does Keefe need to prove he can succeed with new players, but he needs to prove that he is the guy that can turn the New Jersey Devils from a rush-centric team to one that can beat opponents down in the cycle game, prolonging offensive opportunities beyond the initial entry and scoring chance. The Devils have a good share of strong skaters — especially when guys like Meier, Bratt, and Hischier get low to keep the puck on their stick. Dawson Mercer and Jack Hughes add a great deal of shiftiness, even if they can still afford to bulk up somewhat. Combining that skating ability and their passing ability to prolong offensive possessions has somehow evaded the Devils over the past couple years, but achieving that growth in production that many of the league’s top scorers have recently seen in their late 20s necessitates finding that cycle game.
If the Devils can mature their offensive stylings, they should find at least one or two of themselves among the league’s top scorers in the upcoming season. However, if Keefe and Colliton cannot succeed where previous coaches failed, the team will remain too predictable. While being too predictable and rush-reliant might not prevent them from making the playoffs with an improved defensive and goaltending situation, it will prevent them from winning much at that stage. They have a good number of competitive years in them from this point, but it would be better not to waste any of them.
Your Thoughts
What do you think of so many of the league’s top scorers being around 28, 29, or 30 years old? Which of the Devils do you think have another level they can achieve? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.