In terms of how he has structured contracts, Tom Fitzgerald has built the offense and defense quite differently for this season. What will it mean on the ice?
Tom Fitzgerald, at least in terms of contracts, has built the offense and defense of the New Jersey Devils fairly differently. It makes some sense in terms of the salary cap, Fitz could not build the defense the same way he attacked the offense. However, it is interesting to note and touches on some issues the Devils had last season and what could potentially happen again this year.
In terms of the offense, the forward group is pretty top-heavy in terms of contracts. In the NHL, according to Puck Pedia, there are 49 forwards who have a contract with an AAV that ranges between $7 and $9 million. Divide that by 32 teams, and each team should average a little over 1 forward with a contract in this range. The Devils, on the other hand, have 4 such players. Nico Hischier is at the low end of that scale with an AAV of $7.25 million, then comes Jesper Bratt with $7.875 million. On the higher end, Jack Highes sits at an even $8 million AAV, and Timo Meier sits at the top at $8.8 million. Now obviously, contracts go above that, and there are real top-heavy contracts out there that are way above Timo’s AAV. For example, there are 3 forward contracts that rate at $12.5 million AAV or above: Conor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews. The Devils don’t have anyone close to being that top-heavy.
Nonetheless, having four contracts of players between $7-9 million is fairly top-heavy, especially if you consider the next set of data. In the NHL, whereas there were only 49 forward contracts between $7-9 million, there are 131 of these contracts that range between $3-6 million. That is basically 2.67 times more contracts in that mid-range as opposed to the higher range. Yet while the Devils have 4 contracts at the higher range, they only have 2 contracts in that mid-range, and they are at the extremes. Ondrej Palat comes in with his overpriced $6 million AAV, and Erik Haula has his much more reasonable $3.1 AAV. The Devils have 0 contracts in between, nothing between $3.250 and $5.750 million AAV. In the NHL, there are 103 such players.
This means that for the forwards, the contracts are mostly at the extremes. Four contracts at high value, 5 if you want to include Palat and his $6 million, whereas they have a large number of contracts under $3 and even under $2 million. This sort of explains the dead space in the middle 6 that appeared last season. High contracts that can handle the top line, and plenty of guys who can handle fourth line duties, but it’s a setup that relies on young guys on rookie and prove-it deals to cover that middle 6. Guys like Dawson Mercer, Tomas Tatar, and Stefan Noesen are going to be expected to fill those roles. Noesen was just signed to a $2.75 million AAV, so he is close to that mid-range, but Tatar is only at $1.8 million, a small deal all things considered. There will be forwards this season on sub-$2 million AAV deals that will be expected to excel in the middle 6, which is not always a given.
On the defense, on the other hand, the contracts are much heavier with mid-range deals. Dougie Hamilton is the lone big-deal d-man, sitting with his $9 million AAV. After him, however, the team has newly minted Devils in Brett Pesce at $5.5 million and Brendan Dillon at $4 million AAV. They are followed by Jonas Siegenthaler, not far behind at $3.4 million. Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec will undoubtedly earn big deals in the near future, but for this season, they are on rookie deals and fill out the blue line with cheap deals.
These deals tell you that this blue line this season should have better depth and be able to handle play up and down the pairings. They might not have a second big name on a big deal, but if Hughes or Nemec can come into that on rookie deals, they have the contracts and players for second and third pairings pretty well locked up. Of course, this all hinges on Hughes and Nemec maintaining their strong play and in fact improving more given their ages and expectations. But overall, the contracts for this team bear out a well-rounded defense, very different from a top-heavy offense.
In the end, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. For me, I want to see if the middle six on offense can be strong and play well despite not having those mid-range contracts for the most part. Haula fits that bill perfectly, and perhaps Palat, but outside of them, we will see what comes to pass this season for the Devils. If guys on smaller contracts can step up and make those lines perform well, that will be a great sign for this team.