Game Preview #12: New Jersey Devils vs. Anaheim Ducks

The Devils are in a bit of a freefall, so a win against the rebuilding Anaheim Ducks is kind of mandatory tonight

The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (5-4-2) vs. Anaheim Ducks (3-3-1)

The Time: 7:00pm ET

The Broadcast: MSGSN, Devils Hockey Network, KCOP-13, Victory+

Last Devils Game

The Devils hosted the Islanders on Friday night, losing 4-3 in overtime. It was fortunate that they even got a point out of the game, as Jesper Bratt tied the game late with 89 seconds left in regulation. But Bo Horvat scored the overtime winner to send the Devils to their fourth straight loss.

Last Ducks Game

Anaheim was in action last night at Madison Square Garden, falling 2-1 to the Rangers. Olen Zellweger was the lone goal-scorer for the Ducks, while Lukas Dostal made 30 saves on 32 shots.

Long Time Coming

As mentioned in the “Last Devils Game” section, Friday night marked New Jersey’s fourth straight loss. I brought this up in my recap of the loss to the Red Wings, but remarkably, the Devils did not experience a winning OR losing streak of more than three games during the entirety of the 2023-24 campaign. The last time the Devils slogged through a losing streak of four or more games was December 9-20, 2022 when they lost six straight.

(For those curious, the last time they had a winning streak of more than three games was January 7-16, 2023 when they rattled off five consecutive victories).

For the most part, the offense has been holding up its end of the bargain over this 0-2-2 stretch, scoring 16 total goals. And a glass half full view on it could say the Devils have been fortunate to get two points out of the last four games, overcoming two separate two-goal deficits to steal a point against Washington, and scoring with 89 seconds left on Friday to steal a point against the Islanders.

But the defense and goaltending have completely let the team down. New Jersey has allowed a staggering 23 goals over this four-game losing streak (though one of those was an empty netter against Detroit). Part of that is on the goalies (a combined .821 Save% from Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen), and part of that is on the skaters (37 shots on goal allowed against both Washington and Tampa Bay, and 30 more against an offensively inept New York Islanders team). The only game that the team defense actually showed up was the Detroit game when they allowed 20 total shots, but even then there were some premium chances they allowed thanks to horrific turnovers, terrible coverage, or both.

The point is, the Devils have been hemorrhaging goals against, and it needs to stop. The goalies need to actually make a save, and the defense actually needs to tighten it up. It’s as simple as that.

Oh Captain, My Captain

There is exactly one Devil I can point to and say with 100% certainty they have been doing their job over this four-game losing streak: Nico Hischier. After an up and down 2023-24 season, the captain is back to ruining all those who stand before him. According to Natural Stat Trick, Hischier leads the Devils in 5-on-5 Expected Goals For% this season with a mark of 57.51%. Over these last four games, those numbers are:

10/19 vs. WSH: 81.80%

10/22 vs. TBL: 36.93%

10/24 @ DET: 73.92%

10/25 vs. NYI: 71.88%

The Tampa Bay game is the obvious clunker here, but for the most part Hischier has been dominating. Not to mention the fact that he’s scored five goals (and six total points) over the last four contests, and in fact he’s tied for the overall league lead in goals with Nikita Kucherov, both with eight tallies. His line with Timo Meier and Dawson Mercer has really clicked, which is a great sign moving forward.

As far as Devils unquestionably doing their part, it ends with Hischier though, and that’s the problem. I can point to a handful of Devils that have looked good in spots over the losing streak, but outside of the captain there has been no consistency, unless you count being consistently bad. Players outside of Hischier need to step up, and fast.

Must Watch

Sheldon Keefe press conferences, whether they come after morning skates or after games, are quickly becoming appointment viewing for me. He was open and honest about Seamus Casey upon his demotion to the AHL, he was incredibly fiesty after the embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay, and in case you missed it, here’s his postgame presser after Friday’s contest:

It was not fire and brimstone like it was after the Lightning game, and in fact he seemed mildly encouraged by the effort. He brought up the jam packed schedule and lack of practices as reasons (or excuses, depending on your point of view) the team hasn’t looked cohesive. He brought up how he’s appreciated the fight in his team, and he sung the praises of Nico Hischier among others. Conversely, he hasn’t shied away from dressing down his entire squad if he felt they needed to be criticized.

I can appreciate this honesty. Keefe’s willingness to show his squad tough love when necessary and words of encouragement when necessary seems like a good approach. I would appreciate it more if, you know, it led to positive results, but I do respect the approach.

Considering Keefe mentioned lots of games and lack of practice time specifically, that would imply to me that once the schedule lightens up a bit and Keefe is able to practice his squad a little more, positive results will follow. That’s the main reasoning he brought up for how disjointed his team has looked, so once he starts racking up practice time with his team, there will be no excuses.

No Excuses

And speaking of no excuses, tonight needs to be a win. I’m not calling it a must-win as far as “saving the season”, obviously that would be ridiculous at this time of year. But what I am saying is the Devils have no reason to lose this game tonight. New Jersey is the superior team, Anaheim is clearly still a rebuilding squad. On top of that, this is a cross-country trip for the Ducks, and the cherry on top is that this is the second half of a back-to-back for Anaheim. Meanwhile New Jersey is working with a day of rest.

The Devils are the better team, and the deck is stacked in their favor when taking schedule and travel into account. No excuses, win this game and end the losing streak.

Rebuilding The Offense

A look at Anaheim’s roster reveals a lot of young, promising talent among the forward ranks. Some players such as Mason McTavish and Leo Carlsson have the potential to become truly elite players in this league. Others like Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry are a bit older and more capped out as far as ceiling goes, but still potentially have room to grow.

Let’s start with McTavish. The 21-year-old registered 17 goals and 43 points in 2022-23, and 19 goals and 42 points in 2023-24. On the surface that would seem incredibly consistent, but the difference is he played 80 games in 2022-23, and only 64 games last season. So his scoring rate spiked in 2023-24. He hasn’t been able to build on that this year though, as he has yet to score a goal through seven games. He does have three assists though, so it’s not all bad.

Meanwhile, Carlsson got 55 games as a teenage rookie last year. The young Swede put up 12 goals and 29 points. He wasn’t exactly eased into the NHL either, as he averaged 18:07 of playing time per game. Of all the ducklings Anaheim is currently trying to develop, it seems to me that Carlsson has the highest ceiling. Carlsson collected a primary assist last night to push his season totals to three goals and five points in seven games, a very strong rate for a 19-year-old.

The leader of the offense, however, is Terry. After peaking with 37 goals and 67 points in a terrific 2021-22 season, Terry hasn’t been able to quite reach those heights since. He put up 23 goals and 61 points in 2022-23, and 20 goals and 54 points last year. That’s solid production from a second line player, but the problem for the Ducks is Terry is looked at as their most productive forward. That’s part of the reason for Anaheim’s struggles, they just don’t put the puck in the net anywhere close to enough. Carlsson or McTavish might become true top line players someday, but for now it’s Terry leading the charge. He does come into the night with four goals and six points in seven games though, so maybe this is the beginning of Terry’s true rise to stardom. The Devils would be wise to keep a close eye on him tonight.

One other player to note here: Cutter Gauthier. The young forward was drafted fifth overall by the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2022 draft. He was (and still is, for the most part) viewed as an elite prospect, but he reportedly told Flyers General Manager Daniel Briere that he did not want to play for the organization sometime in 2023. Thus, the Flyers decided to trade him to the Ducks for Jamie Drysdale in January. Gauthier played a single game last season (and collected an assist in it), but this is his true rookie season. Through seven games Gauthier has two assists in seven games played.

Old Reliable And The New Kid On The Block

Anaheim’s two leading players as far as average time on ice goes are defensemen Cam Fowler and Pavel Mintyukov, with both averaging over 21 minutes per game. Fowler is now 33 years old and in his 15th season in the league, all with the Ducks. Mintyukov, meanwhile, is coming off a promising rookie campaign, and is now in his second season in the NHL.

So how are Fowler and Mintyukov doing thus far? Rather than look at point totals, let’s look at some advanced stats for the blueliners. All stats below come from Natural Stat Trick, and are for 5-on-5 situations. And these also do not include the game against the Rangers last night:

Corsi For%: Fowler – 46.64% // Mintyukov – 42.78%

Scoring Chances For%: Fowler – 47.46% // Mintyukov – 42.50%

High Danger Corsi For%: Fowler – 40.68% // Mintyukov – 40.54%

Expected Goals For%: Fowler – 45.80% // Mintyukov – 47.19%

So even though those two have been trusted with the most minutes on the team, the results haven’t exactly been pretty. The Devils can expect to see these two a lot tonight, so it would behoove them to win those matchups like Anaheim’s opponents have thus far this season.

Potential Lineup

Here’s how the Ducks lined up against the Rangers last night:

So expect a very similar deployment tonight. As far as the crease goes, Lukas Dostal got the start in New York on Saturday, so expect James Reimer to get the call. Reimer has only played in one game so far this year, a loss to Vegas on October 13th in which he allowed three goals on 32 shots.

Your Take

What are you expecting tonight? Who needs to step up in your opinion? What will you be watching out for from the Ducks’ side? As always, thanks for reading!