Tonight is the Hughes bowl, part 1, of the 2024-25 season.
The Matchup: The New Jersey Devils (6-4-2) at the Vancouver Canucks (4-1-3).
The Time: 10:30 PM ET
The Broadcast: TV — MSGSN
The Meteoric Rise of Quinn Hughes, vs. the other Canucks
After scoring 92 points last season for Vancouver, 25-year old Quinn Hughes has been eager to prove that he is truly the best defenseman in the National Hockey League. So far, Quinn has done so with utter domination at even strength, as his team controls just under two-thirds of shot attempts and an even larger share of scoring chances and goals with him on the ice. There has been hardly anything going against Vancouver with Quinn on the ice, and the Devils will need to contend with that tonight. Per HockeyViz’s Synthetic Goals model, not only has Quinn Hughes broken the chart — but he is accumulating as much value here as star forwards. The only players in the league who I have recently seen with higher sG evaluations have been Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews.
Hockey Viz
While Quinn has been a one-man show to start the season, his team has weak points. Elias Pettersson has been slow with four points and a 47.64 xGF% through eight games. Some defensemen, including Tyler Myers with his 41.66 xGF%, have been victimized and can be exploited. Meanwhile, newcomers like Jake DeBrusk and Daniel Sprong have not been great fits with the team yet, as they are still learning the Vancouver ways. Their established guys, like Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller, Nils Hoglander, Filip Hronek, and Conor Garland are all doing well, but they have a lot to clean up beyond their top guys.
Canucks Already Looking to Make Moves?
Canucks Army recently made a post about the Vancouver getting involved in the trade market earlier than usual for the league, with Frank Seravalli reporting that they have sought out defensemen in Calgary’s Rasmus Andersson and Pittsburgh’s Marcus Pettersson. Clarke Corsan writes for Canucks Army,
The Canucks’ defensive lineup lost Ian Cole and Nikita Zadorov in the offseason, and while Vincent Desharnais and Derek Forbort were brought in to address the gaps, the bottom pairing has been underwhelming through seven games. Trade acquisition and former first-round pick Erik Brannstrom has shown potential, but there is a general sense that the Canucks need another solid top-four defender to stabilize their blue line.
While Derek Forbort has truly been atrocious in his three appearances so far, Vincent Desharnais has not been that bad. The team only has a -1 goal differential with him on the ice, and he has a positive xGF% and CF% — so I think Desharnais is doing his job. As one of the biggest defensemen in the NHL, he may draw attention from Kurtis MacDermid tonight if Keefe chooses to run his big enforcer, though Desharnais is not known for being a big fighter, and does not take so many penalties.
Jack and Luke
Of course, this is a Hughes bowl, so a lot of eyes will be on the two young Devils stars sharing a last name. And despite some bad turnovers, Luke Hughes has fared far, far better alongside Brett Pesce than Seamus Casey and Simon Nemec had played on the third pairing. Through three games, Luke has a 57.30 CF%, which is third on the team behind Tatar and Pesce, while being in the middle of the pack in expected goals percentage. The goals have not come for the team with Luke on the ice yet, but the numbers say they should soon. I think it is at least really good for Luke to have his legs under him before jumping into this game, even if he came back a bit early.
Jack Hughes, meanwhile, is Jack Hughes. He has overcome some early-season even strength issues and is back to generating chances for the team at a really high pace. With “only” 10 points in 12 games, though, I think Jack would like to jump start his scoring against his brother’s team — and he has loved playing Vancouver in the past. In his career, he has seven goals and six assists in seven games against them. This represents the highest scoring pace Jack has against any NHL team, with the next best being his 10 points in seven games against both of Chicago and the now-historical Arizona Coyotes.
The Post-Lazar Plan
Curtis Lazar will be missing significant time with a knee injury, and the team has recalled Justin Dowling to play in his stead. Dowling has four points in six games for Utica, and he has somewhat recently played 22 NHL games for Vancouver alongside his two call-up appearances last year for the Devils. Dowling is a classic NHL/AHL in-betweener, but I have faith in him to lift up the fourth line. Tomas Tatar should project as a fitting winger for him, and Lazar had been struggling at times prior to his injury. Dowling has a chance here to get a foot in the NHL at a late stage in his career.
Your Thoughts
What do you think of tonight’s game? Will you be up to watch? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.