Game Preview #19: New Jersey Devils @ Florida Panthers

The Devils begin a road trip through Florida with a tilt against the defending Cup champs.

The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (10-6-2) @ Florida Panthers (11-3-1)

The Time: 7:30pm ET

The Broadcast: ESPN+, Hulu, Devils Hockey Network Radio

Last Devils Game

New Jersey hosted the lowly San Jose Sharks on Sunday night, and they lost a frustrating 1-0 game. The only goal of the contest was an own goal off the shinpad of Timo Meier, and old friend Mackenzie Blackwood registered a 44-save shutout.

Last Panthers Game

Florida hosted the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday, and the Panthers snuck past Philly in a 4-3 shootout victory. Sergei Bobrovsky put up a strong effort, saving 34 of 37 shots and delivering enough stops in the shootout for the win.

Missed Opportunity

I wrote about it in the recap of the game against the Sharks, but it bears repeating: Sunday was a big missed opportunity. San Jose is arguably the worst team in the league, and if the Devils want to make the playoffs in what is shaping up to be a very competitive top of the Metropolitan Division, they’ll need to bank points against inferior competition. They did not do that, and in the process also missed out on a chance to secure their first winning streak of four or more games since January of 2023.

Yes Mackenzie Blackwood played great in a 44-save shutout, but honestly I did not think the Devils threatened him nearly as much as that number would indicate. New Jersey had to settle for outside chances so often in that game, including inexplicably passing up a number of more dangerous chances for less menacing shots. It got so bad at one point that the crowd actually started chanting “Shoot the puck!” as the Devils played catch along the perimeter.

It was also a missed opportunity given what the schedule serves up in the near future. Two games against the Panthers, then contests against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Carolina Hurricanes, and Washington Capitals loom. That is a brutal stretch, so it was imperative that New Jersey banked points when they could. They failed to do that against a poor San Jose team, and now it is incumbent on them to rise to their level of competition and get some results against quality opponents.

The one positive about the upcoming schedule is that, after the game in Tampa Bay on Saturday, the Devils get four days off before their next game against the Hurricanes. The schedule makers did not do New Jersey any favors out of the gate. Between the season-opening games in Prague followed by a schedule that seems more condensed than usual, it has been a grind to open the campaign. New Jersey is in the midst of a stretch where they will play four games in six days. They could really use that four-day layoff to rest, recover, maybe get a practice or two in, and come out swinging on the other side.

Trouble In Paradise?

Nico Hischier got off to an amazing start this season. He was the first Devil (and one of the first players in the NHL) to reach double digit goals, and his underlying numbers looked fantastic as he won every matchup that was thrown his way. But the captain appears to be slowing down a bit:

This has shown up on the scoresheet too, with Hischier only registering a single point (an assist against the Edmonton Oilers) over his last five contests. His line with Timo Meier and Dawson Mercer was looking unbeatable for a while, but they’ve hit a rough patch lately. Here are the numbers the Meier-Hischier-Mercer line have put up together in each individual game over the last five according to Natural Stat Trick. All numbers are in 5-on-5 situations:

11/1 @ CGY: 9:03 Time On Ice, 20.90 xGF%

11/4 @ EDM: 12:55 TOI, 45.23 xGF%

11/7 vs. MTL: 10:31 TOI, 57.13 xGF%

11/9 @ NYI: 14:00 TOI, 23.07 xGF%

11/10 vs. SJS: 12:04 TOI, 32.38 xGF%

Aside from the game against a bad Montreal side, the Hischier line has been losing matchups emphatically. Even the best of units will go through slumps at some point, and I’m not overly concerned with the captain or that line as a whole. But the sooner they can turn it around, the better. Especially with such a sharp uptick in competition coming up.

The Other Franchise Center

It’s not all bad news down the middle though. After a relatively sluggish start, Jack Hughes has really started to find his form. It makes sense that Hughes would need some time to get back up to speed, as he was coming back from offseason shoulder surgery. Much like we did with Hischier, let’s take a look at how Hughes’ line with Jesper Bratt and Ondrej Palat have fared over the past five games. Again, all numbers per NST, and all numbers are in 5-on-5 situations:

11/1 @ CGY: 8:28 Time On Ice, 54.95 xGF%

11/4 @ EDM: 10:52 TOI, 44.20 xGF%

11/7 vs. MTL: 10:31 TOI, 58.79 xGF%

11/9 @ NYI: 12:10 TOI, 68.13 xGF%

11/10 vs. SJS: 10:09 TOI, 54.84 xGF%

If not for that Oilers game, it would’ve been a clean sweep of matchups won. As far as traditional stats, Hughes has also put up three goals and six points over that stretch (though that’s a bit misleading considering he had consecutive three-point nights against the Canadiens and Islanders).

Hischier and Hughes have been the inverse of each other this season. Hischier started out strong, and has since cooled off. Hughes stumbled out of the gate, but has recently stepped up his game. From that standpoint, it could be taken as a positive considering the Devils have put together a solid record without both of their franchise cornerstones at the top of their games at the same time. Once they both start rolling simultaneously, which is only a matter of time, the rest of the league better watch out.

You Come At The King, You Best Not Miss

The Florida Panthers are the defending Stanley Cup champions for a reason. This is a team that plays hard, has a system that works, and has both the high-end talent and the depth to overwhelm opponents on a nightly basis. As happens with most every Cup champ, the Panthers did experience some free agency attrition in the offseason, most notably defensemen Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and trade deadline acquisition Vladimir Tarasenko. But the headliners like Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk, Gustav Forsling, and Aaron Ekblad are still around and producing.

Reinhart is definitely the player to highlight in this matchup, as a year after posting career highs in goals (57) and points (94), he has picked up right where he left off in 2023-24, recording 11 goals and 23 points in 15 games played. He couldn’t have picked a better time to post a career season by the way, considering 2023-24 was Reinhart’s walk year. The Panthers rewarded him for his level-up season with an 8-year, $69 million deal in the offseason to keep him around long term.

Reinhart has been delivering for the Panthers for a season-plus now, but the question does need to be asked: How sustainable is it? Those 57 goals and 94 points last year? Not only were they career highs, they were career highs by a country mile. Prior to 2023-24, Reinhart’s previous bests were 33 goals and 82 points in 78 games in the 2021-22 campaign. That’s a huge jump, though it’s not like we haven’t seen huge jumps from talented players before. But the problem with Reinhart is there was a giant flashing warning sign that came with his stellar numbers last season: A huge spike in shooting percentage. Reinhart shot 24.5% in 2023-24, which actually led the entire league. Prior to that point, his career shooting percentage was 14.1%, and his highest in a single season was 17.7% in 2021-22 (although he did put up a 19.2% mark in the 2021 Covid-shortened season).

So this would lead one to believe some regression would be in store for this season…except Reinhart enters tonight’s contest shooting at a bewildering 28.2% clip. Somehow, Reinhart has leveled up even more in this regard.

Reinhart is a splendid player, but I do feel confident in saying that eventually his shooting percentage bender will fade away. Since the start of last season he’s shooting at an even 25%. Even the greatest goal scorers in history aren’t able to consistently score on a quarter of their shots. Alex Ovechkin’s highest single-season shooting percentage is 15.4% in 2019-20, although granted he’s much more of a volume shooter. Steven Stamkos’ high is 20.2% in 2013-14, but he only played 37 games that season. In a full campaign his best is 19.8% in 2011-12. Auston Matthews’ career-high is 18.7% last year. All due respect to Reinhart, but I don’t believe he is a better sniper than any of those players.

To be fair to Reinhart though, he brings value beyond just the counting stats. His defensive impacts are tremendous, and he was rewarded for his hard work on the defensive end with a fourth-place finish in the Selke Trophy voting in 2023-24. According to Natural Stat Trick, at 5-on-5 Reinhart is allowing a very strong 2.14 xGA/60, which is good for fourth on the team among players with at least eight games played.

This was a lot of words about Reinhart, but the point is that while his scoring touch is almost certain to drop off, he is still a great player. The offense goes through him right now, and the Devils would be wise to gameplan around stopping the Panthers’ star winger.

The Team As A Whole

Taking a step back from Reinhart and looking at the Panthers as a collective unit, this will be an extremely difficult matchup for the Devils. At 11-3-1, Florida sits atop the entire Eastern Conference with 23 points. Their points percentage (.767) is second by a whisker to Carolina’s .769. And perhaps most importantly, they are on a big time roll, entering tonight’s game on a seven-game winning streak. The last time the Panthers lost a game was a 5-1 thumping at the hands of the Minnesota Wild all the way back on October 22nd.

Taking a look at Florida’s schedule, it’s odd how quirky it has been/will be recently. They played two games in Finland as part of the NHL’s Global Series against the Dallas Stars at the start of the month. Now they play two consecutive games against the same opponent, the Devils, in a span of three days. It’s not even a home-and-home either, both contests will be played in Florida. And then after the second Devils game, they actually WILL play a home-and-home against the Winnipeg Jets. The schedule makers had a sense of humor when putting together the first half of Florida’s November slate.

Either way, this is a dangerous team. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Panthers are near the top of the league in some of the big advanced stats, with one notable exception (all numbers are 5-on-5 and are prior to Monday’s games):

Corsi For%: 53.08%, 6th in the NHL

Scoring Chances For%: 53.27%, 7th

High Danger Corsi For%: 47.20%, 25th

Expected Goals For%: 52.33%, 8th

The HDCF mark stands out like a sore thumb. If the Panthers have one weakness, it’s their penchant for giving up Grade-A chances. New Jersey enters tonight at a decent 51.58 HDCF%, good for 11th in the league. So it’s not some crazy mismatch, but the Devils should have the advantage in this category if they play their game.

The Bob

Sergei Bobrovsky may very well end up in the Hall of Fame someday. His time in Florida has been mixed, but he did stand on his head in the Panthers’ run to the 2023 Stanley Cup Final where they fell short against the Vegas Golden Knights. And then in last year’s postseason, he put up okay numbers (.906 Save%, 2.32 Goals Against Average) on his way to his first Stanley Cup title. He has cemented himself as a Panthers legend forever, even if his overall body of work there has been up and down.

Thus far in 2024-25, it has been more down than up. Coming into the night, Bobrovsky is rocking a SV% of .895, and a GAA of 2.95. Per NST, in all situations he currently sits at -1.46 Goals Saved Above Expected. Not terrible by any stretch, but in the red nonetheless. He did put up a strong outing on Saturday in the shootout victory against the Flyers, but it’s difficult to know what you are going to get out of Bobrovsky on a nightly basis these days.

Meanwhile his tandem mate, Spencer Knight, seems to finally be sticking in the NHL. He has served as Bobrovsky’s backup this season, and in five games played (four starts), he has posted a .902 SV% and a 2.79 GAA. Again per NST, Knight sits at 0.36 GSAA in all situations, essentially breaking even. No matter who the Devils face in net this evening, they will not be facing a goaltender who has been a world beater thus far. Then again they got shutout by Mackenzie Blackwood of all people on Sunday so it wouldn’t shock me if The Bob or Knight stands on their head against New Jersey.

Projected Lineup

Here’s how the Panthers lined up in practice yesterday:

Expect this deployment tonight.

Your Take

What are your thoughts on tonight’s game? Who on the Devils will you be expecting to step up? Who on the Panthers will you be keeping a close eye on? As always, thanks for reading!