Game Preview #33: New Jersey Devils vs. Chicago Blackhawks

Coming off a win against a strong Kings team on Thursday, New Jersey welcomes the moribund Blackhawks to town

The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (19-10-3) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (9-18-2)

The Time: 1:00pm ET

The Broadcast: MSGSN, CHSN, NHLN, Devils Radio Network

Last Devils Game

New Jersey was in action on Thursday when they hosted the Los Angeles Kings, and they skated away with an impressive 3-1 win. Jack Hughes paced the offense with a goal and three points, and the Devils’ defense played perhaps its best game of the season, holding the Kings to a mere 14 shots on goal.

Last Blackhawks Game

Chicago also played on Thursday, as they began their tristate area swing on Long Island with a game against the Islanders. They ended up falling 5-4 to the Isles.

Back To Their Roots

When the New Jersey Devils were the premiere franchise in the NHL (circa 1993-94 to 2002-03), they were a team built on defense. Martin Brodeur held down the crease as well as anyone ever has, but before you got to him, you had to go through a wave of elite defensive skaters working together in a smothering system. Putting shots on net and generating offense against those dynasty years Devils teams was like pulling teeth.

Well over the past four games, New Jersey has been giving us a glimpse of what it was like to watch those Cup-winning teams. Let’s take a look at some defensive stats from the past four games:

• 12/6 vs. Seattle Kraken: 19 Shots on goal allowed, 2.04 Expected Goals Against, all situations
• 12/8 vs. Colorado Avalanche: 24 SOG allowed, 1.98 xGA
• 12/10 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs: 17 SOG allowed, 2.52 xGA
• 12/12 vs. Los Angeles Kings: 14 SOG allowed, 1.93 xGA

Those are ludicrous numbers. Over this stretch, the Devils have allowed an average of 18.5 SOG per game, and 2.12 xGA. One season after we bemoaned the dreadful team defense we saw out of this club, Sheldon Keefe has his new squad suppressing offense at an elite level.

The bad news about all this? New Jersey only won two of those games. I did feel that the Avalanche game was a bit misleading considering Colorado went up big fairly early and took their foot off the offensive gas pedal. Meanwhile the Maple Leafs game saw New Jersey native Anthony Stolarz absolutely steal that game for his team. But despite these factors, it’s hard to be upset at what we’re seeing from a defensive standpoint. Has this focus on goal-suppression come at the cost of the offense? The argument could certainly be made. Over these last four games, the Devils have scored a total of seven goals after all. But I do believe Colorado’s Scott Wedgewood and Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz just happened to play out of their minds against the Devils. New Jersey deserved to hit more twine.

The last thing I’ll say about this is that it’s very encouraging to see these types of performances against this level of competition. The Kraken are pretty mediocre, but the Avalanche, Maple Leafs, and Kings are all upper-echelon teams. And even if I think the numbers against Colorado flatter the Devils a little bit, there is still a lot to like here. Against a truly awful Blackhawks team, I expect another strong defensive showing this afternoon.

The Streak In Jeopardy?

Dawson Mercer has famously never missed a game in his NHL career. Since getting called up to The Show to start the 2021-22 campaign, Mercer has suited up for 278 straight games, a truly impressive ironman streak. Unfortunately for Mercer, that streak was put in jeopardy on Thursday night.

In the third period against the Kings, Mercer took an errant shot right in the face:

Ouch.

There is good news though, as Mercer appears to be on track to play today:

Stein also reported that Mercer was taking regular rotations during line rushes, and was wearing a regular helmet at practice without a shield. That strikes me as very encouraging for his chances to play.

It was a scary moment on Thursday night, but for now at least, Mercer appears set to keep his ironman streak alive.

Guess Who’s Back, Back Again

Speaking of injury-related news, we had a surprise return to practice yesterday:

As Stein notes, Lazar has been out for about a month and a half now when he had to leave the game against the Anaheim Ducks on October 27th. He wasn’t having the greatest season before he went down, but I did think he brought a certain level of stability to the fourth line.

It doesn’t appear that his return to game action is imminent though, as per Stein, he was an extra at practice:

We just saw the return of Nate Bastian after an extended absence, and we might not have to wait long before the final piece of the fourth line, Lazar, returns as well. After rumors and speculation swirled that Lazar’s injury could be season-ending, it’s nice to see him back on skates.

Windy City Woes

Following their 2010’s dynasty powered by a sexual assault coverup elite players like Johnathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and Duncan Keith, the Blackhawks organization has fallen on very hard times. From 2021-22 to 2023-24, Chicago has finished with an average of just under 60 points per season. They were “rewarded” for their ineptitude in 2023 with a draft lottery win and the honor of drafting Connor Bedard first overall. This past draft saw the Hawks secure the second overall pick, which they used on defenseman Artyom Levshunov. And with 20 points in 29 games so far this season, Chicago appears well on their way to yet another premium draft pick.

This is a team that is bad at just about everything. Take a look at some key stats:

• Goals For Per Game: 2.45, 30th in the league
• Shots For Per Game: 25.9, 30th
• Goals Against Per Game: 3.17, 22nd
• Shots Against Per Game: 30.1, 27th
• Shooting%: 9.45%, 27th
• Save%: .895%, 16th
• Natural Stat Trick 5-on-5 Expected Goals For%: 45.16%, 29th

So aside from a middle of the pack save%, Chicago is near the very bottom of the list in a lot of different ways. They don’t have their 9-18-2 record by accident. This is a dismal team.

The One Saving Grace

There is one aspect of this Chicago team that I can point to on a team-wide level and say there’s some success there: Special teams. Entering today, Chicago ranks 11th in the NHL in power play efficiency (24.0%), and, shockingly, 5th in penalty kill efficiency (83.1%). When one side has more skaters on the ice than the other, the Blackhawks turn into a surprisingly competent team.

The underlying numbers do paint a slightly different picture. According to Natural Stat Trick, on the power play, Chicago has generated 8.15 xGF/60, good for 18th overall. Meanwhile on the penalty kill, The Blackhawks have allowed 7.35 xGA/60, 7th in the league. So the numbers tell us that the penalty kill is perhaps a hair lucky but still quite good, while the power play is noticeably luckier based on the rate metrics, even if they’re still not awful. We know how dominant the Devils have been on special teams this season (recent power play struggles not withstanding). Still, if today’s contest becomes a battle of special teams, that would help close the giant gap between New Jersey and Chicago.

The Sophomore Phenom

As mentioned earlier, Connor Bedard was drafted first overall in the 2023 entry draft. He came into the league with a little less hype than recent prospects like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews, but he slotted right underneath them in that second tier. After a very promising rookie campaign in which he registered 22 goals and 61 points in 68 games, Bedard comes in with six goals and 24 points in 29 games this season. His scoring rate is a little off his pace from his debut season, but only slightly.

Many top prospects enter the league with a signature trait. For our own Jack Hughes, it was his skating ability, and specifically his freakish edge work. For a classic prospect like Joe Thornton it was his playmaking ability. For Bedard, his signature trait is his shot. Bedard had been an elite shooter at every level of his hockey journey, and he was projected to be a 40+ goal scorer in the league in short order. Just watching him play, it’s clear that he has an elite shot, but so far in his young career he hasn’t been able to translate that into actual goals at the pace most people expected of him. In 2023-24, Bedard’s shooting% was 10.7%. This season, he’s at 8.2%. As a point of comparison, Nico Hischier’s career shooting% is 12.7%. We all love our captain, but we can all agree that Hischier is not an elite level goal scorer in the NHL.

I don’t have much doubt that Bedard will one day (probably soon) blossom into a player who scores 30 goals per season with regularity, probably scores 40 a lot, and maybe even eclipses 50 a few times before he hangs up the skates. But for now, Bedard is struggling to find the back of the net. Languishing on a terrible Blackhawks team might be a part of the reason for his shooting woes, but it’s not the entire story. Bedard will eventually start filling the net, he’s too talented not to. In fact, he is coming off one of his best games of the season, a one-goal, three-point night on Long Island. Bedard currently holds a three-game point streak overall after picking up exactly one assist in the previous two games entering Thursday’s tilt. So the Devils need to hope they can cool off Bedard before he starts truly fulfilling his promise.

Projected Lineup, And The Return Of Another Top Prospect

Here’s how the Blackhawks lined up against the Islanders on Thursday:

This will most likely be close to what we see from Chicago today, but not entirely. Yesterday, the Blackhawks called up Frank Nazar, one of their top forward prospects. Taken 13th overall in the 2022 draft, Nazar got into three games at the NHL level a season ago, registering one goal over his cup of coffee in the big leagues.

At the AHL level this season, Nazar was producing quite well for the Rockford Icehogs, tallying 11 goals and 24 points in 21 games. According to The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus, expect to see him get prime minutes today:

Your Take

What do you make of today’s game? Who on the Devils do you want to see step up? Who on the Blackhawks will you be keeping an eye on? As always, thanks for reading!