The Christmas break is over, and the Devils are back at work.
The Matchup: The New Jersey Devils (23-11-3) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (21-12-1). Hurricanes Blog: Canes Country
The Time: 7:00 PM
The Broadcast: TV — MSGSN, FanDuel Sports Network South; Audio: Devils Hockey Radio
Home and Home With a Top-3 Metro Team
These two games have massive importance within the Metropolitan Division, with the Devils currently leading the Capitals and Hurricanes by one and six points, respectively. The Devils have played three more games than each of those teams, and the Hurricanes would tie their point total if they were to win each of their games in hand. However, two regulation wins would expand the Devils’ lead to 10 points over Carolina, which would distinctly knock them well below New Jersey and Washington, while still well above Pittsburgh.
If the Devils were to lose each of these games in regulation, though, Carolina would only be two points behind them with three games still in hand. While I think the Devils will ultimately prevail over Washington for the Metropolitan Division, I would be shocked if Washington didn’t retake the lead at least a few times, given their current position amid a red-hot first half. However, if the Devils were to win these two games, I would feel pretty confident that Carolina will not lead the Metro at any point for the rest of the season. They’ve only gone 11-10-1 since going 10-2 in the first month’s worth of games. They’ve averaged 3.09 goals for and against per game, with hot special teams and less stellar five-on-five results.
Aging Veterans
Carolina is still a dangerous team, but some of their supporting pieces are feeling the effects of age. Brent Burns has just nine points over 34 games, a sign that the future Hall of Famer may have lost a few steps and may fall short of 1,000 points in his career. He currently has 890 points over 1,449 games, and he will be 40 years old in March. This is the final year of his contract, and he will probably still have suitors if he decides to continue playing. He still has decent five-on-five underlying numbers and is still very strong on the penalty kill. Burns had 43 points last season and 61 in the 2022-23 season.
Former Canes
The Devils have several former Canes on their roster, with Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce, Stefan Noesen, and Erik Haula having spent time in Carolina. Pesce played 627 games in Carolina, and this is the second time he will play his former team. When the Devils last played Carolina on November 21, both Noesen and Hamilton scored goals, with Noesen picking up two points in a 4-2 victory. The Devils have yet to have their full squad face the Hurricanes in Carolina, as they lost in Raleigh on October 15 when Pesce and Luke Hughes were still recovering from injuries.
Key to the Game: Shut Down Nečas and Don’t Underestimate Staal
Through 34 games, the Hurricanes only have two players with 20 or more even strength points: Sebastian Aho and Martin Nečas. Aho has 20, and Nečas has 25. By comparison, the Devils have six such players in Jesper Bratt (26), Jack Hughes (24), Timo Meier (21), and Nico Hischier (20). Only Jack Hughes has 20 power play points on the Devils, while Nečas leads Carolina with 19, trailed closely by Shayne Gostisbehere’s total of 18.
The Devils need to exploit the Hurricanes’ skilled players tonight. Andrei Svechnikov has been on the ice for only 13 Carolina goals and 21 goals against at five-on-five this year, while Sebastian Aho is not faring much better at 20 goals for and 29 against. Even Nečas has suffered, with his offensive production bringing him to only break even at 26 goals for and against. Most of the positive margin for Carolina actually comes from Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook, whose line is outscoring opponents at a near two-to-one rate with a similarly impressive expected goals percentage. If the Devils want to minimize the impact of Jordan Staal tonight, this would be a great time for the Haula line to play some slow, possessive hockey, so Nico Hischier can be freed up to dominate the Aho line.
Your Thoughts
What do you think of tonight’s game? Will you be watching or attending? What are you looking forward to most? Do you think the Devils can bury Carolina in the standings here? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.