Game Preview #46: New Jersey Devils vs. Florida Panthers

Coming off an overtime win against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Devils look to beat the other team from the Sunshine State this evening

The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (26-15-4) vs. Florida Panthers (25-16-3)

The Broadcast: ESPN+, Hulu, Devils Radio Network

The Time: 7:30pm ET.

Last Devils Game

New Jersey returned from a six-game road trip (that included a west coast swing) on Saturday when they hosted the Tampa Bay Lightning. Deep into overtime, and with four forwards on the ice while on the power play, Stefan Noesen slammed home the game-winner in a 3-2 victory. The win marked the Devils’ sixth straight win at home.

Last Panthers Game

Florida was in action last night in Philadelphia, and they fell 4-3 against the Flyers.

Last Devils-Panthers Game

It happened on November 14th, and it was an emphatic 6-2 win over the defending Cup champs in Sunrise. Jesper Bratt was the story of the game, registering his second career hat trick to lead the offense to a big night.

There’s No Place Like Home

The long road trip that started in 2024 finally ended on Saturday. It was a pretty terrible trip, as the Devils went 1-4-1 over their six games. This included terrible losses to terrible teams in Anaheim against the Ducks and San Jose against the Sharks. The fact that New Jersey was swept in the season series by San Jose is truly awful, and those four missing points could have huge ramifications when all is said and done.

But apparently a little home cooking was all the Devils needed to right the ship. It wasn’t pretty at times, but the overtime win over a strong Tampa Bay team on Saturday was encouraging. And it was also an indication of a turning tide. Since the wonderful 2022-23 season, New Jersey has developed a reputation as being a team that actually plays better on the road than at home. Here are the numbers:

2022-23: Home record – 24-13-4 // Road record – 28-9-4

2023-24: Home record – 17-21-3 // Road record – 21-18-2

That trend was continuing for a while to start this campaign. But since roughly mid-December, the Devils have kicked it into high gear in front of their own fans. Here are the overall numbers entering tonight:

Home record – 13-6-3 // Road record – 13-9-1

The Devils have won six straight home games, with their last loss in Newark coming on December 10th against the Toronto Maple Leafs (a game in which New Jersey outshot Toronto 39-17, by the way). That means that prior to this six-game home winning streak, the Devils had lost more games at home than they had won. But now they’re a juggernaut in Newark. It will be a tough ask to push the home winning streak to seven tonight, as the Panthers are the defending champs for a reason. But overall, it’s nice to see New Jersey consistently putting forth a good effort in front of their own fans again for the first time in a while.

Offensive Offense

A big part of New Jersey’s struggles on their road trip was a cold offense. The Devils have not scored more than three goals since December 27th against the Carolina Hurricanes, the game right before their six-game swing. Even after the road trip ended, the Devils only put up three goals at home on Saturday, and that was a game that went past 60 minutes as well.

So what’s to blame? Well as with most things, it’s a variety of reasons. Some players up and down the lineup aren’t playing up to their full abilities lately. Strong goalie performances from the other teams haven’t helped. Straight up bad puck luck has played a role as well. It’s not a simple fix, but it’s also not something I think is indicative of larger problems. Yes the Devils have been shut out a concerning amount of times this season, but even with that cold spell New Jersey is still averaging 3.16 goals per game. That’s 11th overall, just .03 behind 10th-place Dallas. In other words, New Jersey is basically a top-10 offense in the league despite their recent offensive woes.

There has been much talk about general manager Tom Fitzgerald adding some forward depth leading up to the trade deadline. But while there’s been a good amount of smoke so far, and I do expect some trades eventually, Fitzgerald hasn’t made any moves yet. So for now, it’s on this group of players to figure out how to put the puck in the net again.

On The Mark

Even in all the losses over the six-game road trip, New Jersey was in it until the very end in just about every game. A big reason why was the play of Jacob Markstrom. Tom Fitzgerald’s big game acquisition saved his team time and time again, with a handful of saves that made me question my belief in physics. Markstrom made three “Save of the year” worthy stops in Seattle, leading the Devils to a win they would not have gotten if not for him. He was strong against the New York Rangers, squeezing a point out of a game New Jersey probably should have lost in regulation. And against Tampa Bay, he did it again:

Markstrom was a bit shaky early in the season, but he’s been stellar over the past couple of months. According to Natural Stat Trick, Markstrom has saved 8.31 Goals Above Expected, good for 11th-best in the league. Moneypuck thinks even higher of Markstrom, tabbing him at 12.5 GSAA, 8th in the NHL. It’s safe to say that Fitzgerald has thus far hit a home run with the trade for Markstrom. New Jersey can’t keep relying on him to make saves of the year every single game. But if the Devils can find their defensive form again, with Markstrom backstopping them they have the potential to be the stingiest team in the entire league.

Riding The Rollercoaster

It’s been a pretty streaky season for the Panthers thus far. After a middling start to the year, Florida ran off a seven-game win streak from October 24th to November 9th. That streak came to a crashing halt thanks to our own New Jersey Devils, who beat them twice in a row in that weird two-game “series” in Florida in mid-November. Those games kicked off a stretch where the Panthers lost six of seven, including a four-game losing streak. Then they found their footing by winning nine of their next 12 contests, including a four game winning streak that ended on December 22nd. But since then they’ve won only three of their last nine games entering tonight.

This is of course still a dangerous team, but the swings have been fairly big this year. Is it a product of Cup hangover, where the team hasn’t been able to find it’s footing after exhausting every ounce of energy it had into June? Who knows. Either way, this is a quality if inconsistent opponent that New Jersey has already beaten twice this season. If they can win tonight and thus sweep the season series, that would be a nice feather in the Devils’ cap.

The Breakout That Won’t End…Until Now?

Sam Reinhart had an MVP-caliber season in 2023-24. His 57 goals and 94 points were both career highs by a country mile, as was his shooting% of 24.5% (that mark actually led the league). It was one heck of a breakout campaign, with the caveat that a huge spike in shooting% is generally not sustainable. I even wrote about this in the game preview for the game on November 12th, claiming that the shooting% bender had to end soon…except Reinhart entered that November 12th contest shooting 28.2%, and he scored in both games in that “series” against the Devils.

Shows what I know. Maybe Reinhart is destined to shoot close to 30% for the rest of his career.

But lo and behold, Reinhart entered last night rocking a shooting% of 22.3%. That’s still a very high mark, but given he was around 30% back in November, the regression seemed to finally be hitting him…but then he scored twice last night. So maybe the regression has been staved off for the time being.

On the season, Reinhart has 27 goals in 44 games, right around a 50-goal pace. But since November 30th, he has nine goals in 20 games, a roughly 37-goal pace. And that includes his two goals last night. Prior to that, he had seven goals in 19 games, a roughly 28-goal pace. In that time he was shooting about 14%, which is significantly closer to his career mark prior to last season.

But whether Reinhart’s goal-scoring is unsustainable or not, he has still blossomed into a wonderful player. His defensive game is superb, and in fact he finished fourth in Selke Trophy voting in 2023-24. That’s very impressive for a winger, and shows how valuable Reinhart can be even if he’s not filling the net.

Reinhart might never reach his 57-goal peak again, or even come close to it. But this is still a dangerous player that New Jersey needs to be very careful with tonight.

The Rest Of The Supporting Cast

Reinhart might be the best player on the Panthers this season, but the non-Sam Reinhart players at the very top of Florida’s depth chart as still stars in their own right. The captain, Aleksander Barkov, missed some time earlier in the season, but he’s been rock solid as always since then. In 34 games he has 11 goals and 38 points, playing his typical stellar defense. Matt Tkachuk is the third point per game player on Florida’s roster, with 14 goals in 40 points in 39 games. That three-headed monster is a huge reason why Florida is such a force to be reckoned with.

But the second tier of players is pretty darn good as well. The Panthers’ top two defensemen, Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling, are both around half a point per game this season. They’ve been playing together regularly, with about 638 minutes of shared ice time this season, and according to Moneypuck, they’ve been winning their matchups to the tune of a 53.1% Expected Goals For%. Perhaps not completely dominant, but still very formidable opponents. Not surprisingly, Ekblad and Forsling lead the club in average time on ice, both above 23 minutes per game. So expect to see a lot of them tonight.

The rest of the supporting cast includes players like Carter Verhaeghe (10 goals, 30 points), Anton Lundell (nine goals, 28 points), and Sam Bennett (13 goals, 28 points). Florida is a very deep team with star power at the very top. It’s no wonder they won the franchise’s first Stanley Cup last June.

Projected Lineup

Here’s how the Panthers lined up in Philadelphia last night:

Sergei Bobrovsky started in net, so expect to see Spencer Knight this evening.

Your Take

What do you make of tonight’s game? Who on the Devils do you expect to step up? Who on the Panthers are you most worried about? As always, thanks for reading!