New Jersey has held down a playoff spot all season long, but Columbus is hot on their heels. This is a huge game.
The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (34-25-6) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (31-24-8)
The Time: 7:00pm ET
The Broadcast: MSGSN, FDSNOH, Devils Radio Network
Last Devils Game
On Sunday afternoon, New Jersey travelled down to Philadelphia for an afternoon matchup with the Flyers. Cody Glass scored in his Devils debut, Jake Allen was strong between the pipes, and New Jersey skated away with a desperately needed 3-1 victory.
Last Blue Jackets Game
Columbus was also in action on Sunday, visiting Madison Square Garden for a date with the Rangers. Adam Fantilli notched his second hat trick of the season to lead the Jackets to a 1940’s football-esque 7-3 win.
Last Devils-Blue Jackets Game
All the way back on December 19th, New Jersey travelled to Columbus for the first meeting of the season between these two teams. Despite the Devils thoroughly dominating that game (outshooting Columbus 42-20, a 5-on-5 Expected Goals For% around 70% according to Natural Stat Trick), Elvis Merzlikins played well and was the recipient of absurd luck to steal a 4-2 win from the Devils. The regret from that game looms much larger with the benefit of hindsight.
The New Guys Make A Good First Impression
It wasn’t exactly a rousing win, but the Devils’ 3-1 victory over the Flyers on Sunday helped New Jersey right the ship after one of the worst weeks in recent franchise history. After losing Jack Hughes for the season, the Devils got their hearts ripped out by the Dallas Stars in the worst loss of the season last Tuesday, a game in which they also lost top defenseman Dougie Hamilton for an extended period of time. They followed this up with a terribly disappointing trade deadline and a horrific 6-1 loss to the Winnipeg Jets.
So the win on Sunday was badly needed, and the new additions did their part. It starts with Cody Glass, who scored the opening goal and played a key part in creating the second one. His line with Erik Haula and fellow deadline acquisition Daniel Sprong utterly destroyed Philadelphia to the tune of a collective 5-on-5 Expected Goals For% above 90%.
Speaking of Sprong, he was held without a point, but as alluded to, he played a role in the Devils’ third line dominating the run of play. He finished with an individual xGF% of 75.30%, and he recorded three shots on net. Meanwhile Brian Dumoulin actually wasn’t making his Devils debut (that came on Friday), but I’ll include him here as well. He posted an xGF% of 60.06%, teaming with Johnny Kovacevic on the shutdown pairing. And lastly, Dennis Cholowski only played about 13 and a half minutes. While his underlying numbers weren’t impressive, I didn’t notice him much on Sunday, which I consider to be a good thing.
Devils fans everywhere were incensed that general manager Tom Fitzgerald did not address the glaring scoring issues at the deadline. Instead he doubled down on defense, with Glass, Dumoulin, and Cholowski all coming over with reputations for being anywhere from decent to strong on the defensive end. Sprong is the outlier here, but he brings speed and scoring touch in a depth role, which obviously helps in its own way. Perhaps Fitzgerald decided that instead of bolstering a flagging offense, his team’s best bet was to go all-in on defense (an area where the club was already strong) and try to win every game 1-0. It’s a tough needle to thread, but after getting over the initial disappointment of the trade deadline inactivity, I can at least understand some of the logic.
In any case, the new guys acquitted themselves well on Sunday. We can only hope they continue to play well.
The Biggest Game Of The Season
The Columbus Blue Jackets were not expected to contend this season. In fact, many were selecting them to finish dead last in the Metropolitan Division. And this was before the unfathomable tragedy that took Johnny Gaudreau and his brother Matthew from us far too soon. With a seemingly weak roster and monumental sorrow hanging over them, no one would have faulted the Jackets if they faltered in 2024-25.
Instead, Columbus has been by far the best story in the NHL this season. Somehow, someway, this team is right in the thick of the playoff race, and in fact enters tonight holding down one of the two wild card spots in the Eastern Conference.
Looking back on the Blue Jackets’ season, that win over New Jersey on December 19th actually seems to have been the turning point for them. Columbus entered that contest having lost eight of their last nine games, including five in a row, and with a record of 12-15-5. Starting with that 4-2 victory over the Devils, the Blue Jackets then won 10 of their next 13 games, and have gone 19-9-3 overall. This stretch has included both a six-game winning streak and a four-game winning streak, which is particularly maddening to me considering how many times I’ve written about the Devils not achieving a winning streak of four games or more since January of 2023. Heck, New Jersey hasn’t won so much as two consecutive games since late January of this season, and hasn’t had a three-game heater since December 21st-27th, coincidentally the games that immediately followed that loss to Columbus.
The Devils enter this game with 74 points in 65 games, and the Blue Jackets enter with 70 points in 63 games. New Jersey can exit this game as many as six points or as few as two points clear of Columbus. And the Jackets will still have two games in hand either way. This is certainly the biggest game of the season so far, and the Devils have only themselves to blame for squandering their once massive lead in the standings. A win tonight would be absolutely massive, not just for the obvious reason of keeping a hot Columbus team at bay, but also just for the psyche of a Devils team that has suffered blow after blow in recent weeks. The pressure is on.
Not Exactly Road Warriors
One big reason for optimism from a Devils perspective tonight? The Blue Jackets have struggled mightily on the road. A huge part of Columbus’ surprise season is a wildly impressive 20-6-4 record at home. But on the road, the Blue Jackets are a miserable 11-18-4. Losing two-thirds of all your away games is a recipe for disaster, and it’s a main reason why Columbus is struggling to hold onto a playoff spot despite a pristine home record.
Now, the Jackets did just win a road game in convincing fashion, the aforementioned 7-3 victory over the Rangers on Sunday night. But Columbus put up 28 shots last time out, and I feel confident in saying they won’t score on 25% of their shots tonight (way to tempt fate, Jackson). And despite all their struggles since Christmas, the Devils are still a strong defensive team, and certainly FAR stronger than the Rangers.
The bottom line is, the Blue Jackets have had a really difficult time outside of Ohio this season. New Jersey will have last change tonight, and they need to take advantage of it in a big way.
Zach Attack
Zach Werenski is having an outstanding season, to the point where he should be seriously considered for the Norris trophy. In 62 games played, Werenski is already up to 20 goals, which is tied for his career high that he set in 2019-20. If you’ll recall, a little thing called the Covid-19 Pandemic cut that season short, so Werenski reached that 20-goal plateau in just 63 games before the NHL suspended their season and went right to the playoff bubbles.
Werenski will set a new career high in goals this season, it’s only a matter of when and not if, and the Devils sure hope he doesn’t do it tonight. In addition to his 20 goals, Werenski also has 48 assists, meaning he is averaging over a point per game this season. He is also averaging a frankly ludicrous 26:54 of ice time per game, so expect to see Werenski on the ice for roughly half of tonight’s contest.
But is all of that scoring just empty calorie stat-padding? Is Werenski just racking up points on one end while giving it all back on the other? Not at all. According to Natural Stat Trick, Werenski is above the break-even mark in all the big 5-on-5 categories:
Corsi For%: 50.78%
Scoring Chances For%: 50.24%
High Danger Corsi For%: 51.30%
Expected Goals For%: 51.38%
Now, those aren’t amazing numbers on the surface. But in the context of his team as a whole, they kind of are. Here are those same stats except for the Blue Jackets as a whole (along with their league-wide rank in that category):
CF%: 47.25% (29th)
SCF%: 47.03% (28th)
HDCF%: 47.42% (25th)
xGF%: 47.80% (26th)
Yes the dirty little secret of Columbus’ season is that they are a pretty bad team at controlling the run of play. But despite constantly getting outplayed, they keep finding ways to win. How have they managed to do that?
Take a wild guess:
Team Shooting%: 11.66% (5th)
A shooting% bender can paper over a lot of problems.
Anyway, back to Werenski. Yes his raw 5-on-5 analytics don’t look particularly impressive, but on a team that is significantly underwater in every major category, the fact that Werenski controls play even a little bit when he’s on the ice is very impressive. If Columbus actually does manage to make the postseason, Werenski will be the biggest reason why. He’s been their do-everything workhorse this season, an absolute stud who deserves a long look for league-wide awards. If the Devils want to get a crucial two points tonight, the gameplan needs to begin with reigning in Werenski.
The Next Wave
The Blue Jackets have had a lot of high draft picks in recent years, and those picks have turned into a promising young core.
Adam Fantilli might be their most promising young piece. The third overall pick in 2023, Fantilli enters tonight with 21 goals and 41 points in 63 games. Granted his underlying 5-on-5 numbers are all pretty terrible, with an xGF% around 41%, but it’s tough to ask a 20-year old to control play at the NHL level. He still has enormous upside.
Meanwhile, Kent Johnson, the fifth overall pick in 2021, is actually outpacing Fantilli with 21 goals and 44 points in 49 games. Johnson has fared much better in the run of play as well, with an xGF% close to 47%. Not good, but a lot better. Meanwhile, his fellow 2021 first rounder, Cole Sillinger (12th overall) comes in with nine goals and 29 points in 54 games. His xGF% is almost identical to Fantilli’s around 41% though, which holds back the rest of his game.
But the young Blue Jacket having the finest season is actually not one of those coveted first round picks. That would be Kirill Marchenko, who was selected in the second round in 2018. In 60 games this season, Marchenko has posted 24 goals and 61 points. And unlike the rest of the baby Blue Jackets, Marchenko’s advanced numbers are fantastic. He is above 50% in every major 5-on-5 category, including a stellar 53.05% xGF%. Marchenko does not come with the name recognition that the others do, but he is the one having by far the best season. The Devils would be wise to mark him closely tonight.
Around the Playoff Race
Aside this obviously critical game, there are a few other matchups worth monitoring this evening as well:
The Ottawa Senators, the other team currently holding down a wild card spot in the East with Columbus, play at 7:00pm tonight in Philadelphia. It pains me to say this as a lifelong Devils fan, but go Flyers.
It’ll be tough for the Devils to catch the Carolina Hurricanes at this point (they are six points up with a game in hand), but their games deserve attention nonetheless. They host the Tampa Bay Lightning at 7:30pm. Go Lightning.
Finally, the New York Rangers are just outside the playoff picture right now at 68 points. They play the league-leading Winnipeg Jets at 8:00pm this evening. You don’t need any other motivation to root against the Rangers, but go Jets.
Your Take
What do you make of tonight’s game? Which of the new additions are you most excited about? Who on Columbus will you be watching closely tonight? As always, thanks for reading!