Game Preview #75: New Jersey Devils @ Minnesota Wild

This is the second half of a back-to-back, but also the front end of a home-and-home. Odd. Read about it here.

The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (38-29-7) @ Minnesota Wild (41-27-5)

The Time: 6:00pm ET

The Broadcast: MSGSN, FDSNNO, FDSNWIX, Devils Radio Network

Last Devils Game

New Jersey visited the Western Conference-leading Winnipeg Jets last night, and it went about as well as you probably thought it would. With Luke Hughes a late scratch with a lower body injury, the Devils lost 4-0. New Jersey was outscored 10-1 in their two games against Winnipeg this month.

Last Wild Game

Minnesota last played on Thursday, taking a 4-2 win from the Washington Capitals. Frederick Gaudreau scored twice, and Matt Boldy added a goal and an assist of his own.

Quick Hits

Since this is the second half of a back-to-back (more on that in a moment) I don’t have much to add that Chris didn’t tackle in his recap last night. So we’ll do a few quick hits then move on:

• Tonight is the second half of a back-to-back, but oddly enough, it’s also the front half of a home-and-home. After battling the Wild in Minnesota this evening, these two teams will play again on Monday in New Jersey. Home-and-homes are of course not particularly rare in the NHL, but it’s a little more rare to see it come against a Western Conference team. And as part of an unrelated back-to-back. Scheduling quirks like that are so amusing to me.
• As mentioned, Luke Hughes was a late scratch from this game with a lower body injury. He gave it a go in warmups last night, but the coaching staff kept him out. Getting injury info out of the Devils organization is like trying to get Johnny Tightlips to tell you where they hit him, but we did get this after the game:

So there’s a chance we don’t see Hughes again tonight. Because after all the brutal injuries the Devils have suffered this season, another one to Luke Hughes is exactly what they need.

• Speaking of injuries, Dawson Mercer left the game last night after taking a hit, but he eventually returned:

He missed the start of the third but did finish the game on the bench. So presumably New Jersey avoided yet another key injury.

• Jake Allen had his first real off night in a while. It wasn’t all his fault, as his skaters could have done a better job in front of him, but Allen was bound to come back down to Earth eventually. Expect Jacob Markstrom to start tonight.
• Last night was New Jersey’s eighth shutout loss of the season, and we still have half a month to go. I think it’s very possible they reach double digits by the end of the regular season.
• The Devils also failed to reach 30 shots on goal yet again. They haven’t done that since the game against the Predators on February 23rd. They have two more shots (pun intended) to get to 30 in March, otherwise they will have gone an entire calendar month without achieving 30 shots on goal.

Back-To-Back Tracker

Another second half of a back-to-back! In case you need a reminder, New Jersey is 2-7-1 in the second half of back-to-backs this season. These situations have been a huge problem for the Devils, a season after they were a huge problem that arguably cost them a playoff spot.

They only have one more back-to-back after tonight, the final two games of the regular season on April 15-16. So thankfully, blessedly, mercifully, we are almost done watching this team play on consecutive nights.

Mirror, Mirror On The Wall

It’s not a perfect comparison, but I would argue the Wild are the closest analogue to the Devils in the Western Conference. Much like the Devils losing their best player, Jack Hughes, to a season-ending injury, the Wild have been without their best player, Kirill Kaprizov, for the vast majority of the second half. After Minnesota’s game on December 23rd, Kaprizov missed exactly a month of action before returning to the lineup on January 23rd. But that return was short-lived, as Kaprizov only played three more games before hitting the IR again. He hasn’t played since January 26th.

Kaprizov has been one of the league’s premier forwards for a while now, but this season was shaping up to be arguably the best one the Russian winger has produced. In 37 games played, Kaprizov was up to 23 goals and 52 points. That 1.41 points per game rate prorates out to a staggering 115 over a full 82-game season. Kaprizov’s previous high was 108 points in 81 games in 2021-22, so he was on pace to set a new benchmark for himself.

Elsewhere, the Devils have lost two of their top defensemen in Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler, which has forced them to rely on young stud blueliner Luke Hughes more than they were expecting. The Wild are in an eerily similiar position, having had to deal with extended absences of captain Jared Spurgeon and longtime defense staple Jonas Brodin this season. This forced them to rely on young stud blueliner, Brock Faber, more than even they anticipated.

Meanwhile, just like the Devils having to share a division with the best team in their conference, the Washington Capitals, Minnesota has to share the Central with the West-leading Winnipeg Jets. And after a really good start to the campaign that saw the Wild jump out to a record of 20-6-4 in December, Minnesota has been mediocre since, with a record of 21-21-1 over their last 43 games. Yet despite that sustained mediocrity, the Wild are a safe-but-not-surefire bet to make it into the playoffs.

Does all of that sound familiar?

Like I said it’s not a perfect comparison. The Wild haven’t been quite as bad as the Devils since roughly the Christmas break. The Devils remain third in the Metro while Minnesota being forced to share a division with three of the best teams in the league in Winnipeg, Dallas, and Colorado has forced them into the Wild Card. Kaprizov has missed more time than Hughes. And while Hamilton and Siegenthaler remain out, Spurgeon and Brodin have returned to the lineup.

But the similarities are there, much more so than any other team in the Western Conference. Tonight will be a matchup of two teams experiencing mirroring seasons.

That Young Stud Blueliner

We mentioned him briefly, now let’s talk a little more in-depth about Brock Faber.

Faber was a second round pick in 2020. After getting a two-game cup of coffee in 2022-23, Faber burst onto the scene with an electric rookie campaign a season ago. He played all 82 games as a 21-year old, logged an incredible 24:58 of ice time per game, and posted eight goals and 47 points. He finished second in the Calder Trophy race to Chicago’s Connor Bedard (Luke Hughes finished third in the race himself).

All of that was enough to convince Wild brass to ink Faber to a monster 8-year, $68 million extension this past summer. And not for nothing, but that contract with it’s $8.5 million AAV (that kicks in beginning next season) is one that a lot of people are using as a comp for Luke Hughes’ next contract.

However, if you looked at Faber’s underlying numbers from his rookie season, they didn’t exactly scream “elite young defenseman”. According to Natural Stat Trick, here were his stats in the big 5-on-5 categories:

CF%: 47.71%

SCF%: 49.80%

HDCF%: 52.36%

xGF%: 50.69%

His xGF% and HDCF% were solid if unspectacular, but the CF% and SCF% were below breakeven. To be fair though, that could be easily explained away by Faber being fed huge minutes against extremely tough competition as a 21-year old rookie. There were many in the hockey world that thought extending Faber last summer was a wise move:

So has he entrenched himself as a legit number one defenseman? Well…

2024-25 NST 5-on-5 numbers:

CF%: 45.86%

SCF%: 45.95%

HDCF%: 46.52%

xGF%: 45.96%

No. No he has not.

Starting next season, Faber will be paid half a million less than Dougie Hamilton per season. That tweet from up above? That same writer for The Athletic has a model ($) that projects a player’s market value based on their on-ice contributions. As of yesterday, Faber is currently tabbed at $4.0 million market value, less than half of what his cap hit will be next season.

But then again, Faber is still young and developing. It’s perfectly reasonable to expect him to become better and better as he reaches his late-20’s, even if this season is a step back. Heck, we all expect the same out of Luke Hughes and his numbers (both counting stats and advanced metrics) haven’t exactly been world-beating in his young career. Faber should be fine in the long term, but in the here and now, he averages over 25 minutes a night for the Wild, and for those 25 minutes, the Devils should have the advantage in the run of play if Faber’s season-long form holds tonight.

Special Teams Advantage?

One area the Devils hold a clear advantage over Minnesota in is special teams play. For as much as we’ve complained about the Devils’ months-long swoon, the one part of their team that has really not wavered all that much is their special teams units. Despite losing Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton, New Jersey still boasts the 4th-best power play in the league. Despite losing Jonas Siegenthaler, New Jersey still boasts the 6th-best penalty kill in the league. Despite everything, they’re still elite in these phases of the game.

Minnesota, on the other hand, is a different story. Their power play is mediocre (20.7%, 21st in the league) but not an outright disaster. Their penalty kill, however, enters tonight with a meager 71.7% success rate. That’s the 2nd-worst in the entire league, ahead of only the New York Islanders.

A big emphasis for the Devils tonight should be to play as little of this game at even strength as possible. Trading power plays with the Wild should yield net positive results.

Projected Lineup

Here’s how the Wild lined up in their last game:

Expect much the same this evening.

Your Take

What do you make of tonight’s game? Who on the Devils do you want to see step up? Who on the Wild will you be watching closely? As always, thanks for reading!